004
FXUS63 KIWX 240357
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
  mph.

- Dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on
  southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk.

- Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through
  Tuesday.

- Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday
  afternoon and evening (30-60% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy
conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has
departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over
southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on
radar this afternoon as the system`s attendant mid level trough
pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta
Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake
Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until
sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from
the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to
generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and
evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and
CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake
Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien
counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today
with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and
structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include
heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings
from lifeguards and stay out of the water!

An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into
the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and
several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing
early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper
70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually
warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies
and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are
ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday
morning will only be in the low 50s!

Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain
and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a
surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have
30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with
the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This
setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the
vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so
our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability
appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We
will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather
and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure settles over the Great Lakes this period and dry
low levels will ensure VFR conditions. Expect just a SCT diurnal
cu deck Monday afternoon with bases 4-5 kft. WNW winds gust up
to 20 kts during peak afternoon mixing.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD