902
FXUS63 KIWX 221639
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1239 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of I-69 this
  afternoon and evening.

- Breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph.

- 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of
  Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday.

- Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on
  southern Lake Michigan.

- Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers,
breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is
located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front
positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and
isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially
along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in
convective development as the front pushes east. Can`t rule out an
isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there
is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of
organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20
kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates.

In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure
gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate
gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening.
Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow
and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight)
should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with
scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity
of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage
across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the
afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the
northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and
Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover
and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces
more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM
picks up on.

Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake
Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien
counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both
days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and
structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include
heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out
of the water!

A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later
Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great
Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below
normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like
days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew
points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes
ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday
morning will only be in the low 50s!

Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the
next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as
pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over
the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this
time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms
Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 803 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions at the terminals today
behind a cold front, with potential for additional
showers/storms later this morning/early afternoon as a shortwave
moves through. Otherwise, light west-southwest winds shift
northwest with gusts up to around 22kts this afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...MCD