251
FXUS63 KIWX 081840
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances increase Sat night into Sunday and Wednesday
  into Wednesday night. Overall expected rainfall not likely to
  help the drought conditions.

- Temperatures through the period expected to remain near or
  above normal, warmest Sunday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A semi active upper level flow is expected for the next 7 to 10
days, with rain chances arriving every 3 to 4 days. At this point
none of these systems are expected to bring any drought busting rain
amounts, but we will take what we can get.

A closed upper low, currently over eastern New Mexico will edge
slowly northeast this weekend, reaching Wisconsin by 18Z Sun. Low
level moisture (eventual PWATS briefly around 1.5") will be drawn up
ahead of the warm front with increasing isentropic lift bringing a
chance for showers mainly in the 06Z to 18Z Sun time frame.
Skeptical on the overall coverage of the showers, but will leave the
period of likely to cat pops in place. A combination of the best
dynamics skirt NW parts of the forecast area (again) and progressive
nature of the system will limit overall QPF potential (likely 0.25"
or less). The warmest temperatures will occur Sunday with highs into
the 60s before the diffuse cold front sweeps in late in the day.

High pressure builds back in for the start of the work week with
temperatures back close to seasonable levels in the 50s. The next
system will be taking shape on the west coast as yet another trough
digs into the SW US and then move ENE by mid week. As it approaches
a 110 kt jet streak will round the base of the trough and help
strengthen it somewhat. Moisture will feed in just ahead of the
system much like this weekends system to bring another chance for
showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as well as a brief warm to
(highs making a run for 60 degrees). Although the trough will
deepen and briefly close off, it will remain positively tilted
and thus rather progressive. These factors are likely to once
again limit overall QPF amounts for the area (maybe more in the
0.25-0.5" range).

A few lingering showers may exist into Thurs/Thur night as CAA
arrives behind the low. Quiet conditions will then return with next
weekend looking dry at this point. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Surface high pressure will drift east-southeast through the
Great Lakes region through the period with dry/VFR conditions
and only a gradual increase in high clouds. WNW winds near 10
knots this afternoon become light/variable tonight otherwise.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel