109
FXUS63 KIWX 182332
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and stagnant pattern to persist into at least the
  start of the weekend.

- Confidence in needed rainfall chances next week remains low,
  with greatest potential possibly arriving Tue/Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Advection of moisture from the east overnight resulted in rather
extensive area of fog early this morning as far west as the IN 15/US
131 corridor. Some concerns a similar setup could occur tonight, but
confidence in widespread/dense nature is low. Have added patchy
mention in eastern areas late tonight into early Thursday for now.

Sheared out wave attempts to push a front into NW areas Friday, but
decreasing forcing and shallow nature of limited moisture likely
limits these areas to at most a few sprinkles. Blend expanded pops
east and have cut them back significantly. Upper level ridge grabs
hold Fri night with models continuing to struggle on how fast it
breaks down in response to a stronger wave edging east across the
Plains over the weekend. Quality of moisture return and progress of
the trough will be key to determining if we have better chances
for rainfall towards mid week. In coordination with western
offices, lowered dewpoints Saturday as decent mixing should
continue given the dry mid levels and strong heating. Model
blend also continues to be riddled with likely overdone pops
Sun-Mon with slightly higher (but still low overall) confidence
on at least some rainfall to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The same airmass that went through the area overnight last night
remains across the area tonight and will make it conducive to
another night of fog. Aviation guidance, once again, tanks the area
into LIFR conditions and, with last night`s fog providing some
confidence, will also bring the area into IFR conditions early
Thursday. A return to VFR conditions can be expected thereafter.
Light winds may contain an easterly component with times of
northerly and southerly components during this TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller