055
FXUS63 KIWX 020802
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
402 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning will become more
  numerous this afternoon and evening. A few storms this morning
  could contain small hail.

- Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. All severe hazards are possible including damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes, especially along and south
  of the US 24 corridor.

- Windy outside of any showers and storms, with gusts to 35 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Near term, dvlpg convection acrs cntrl IL will expand northeastward
through daybreak in response to continued/sharp low level moisture
advection. In time, overspread of better low level theta-e ridge
beneath at least modest mid lvl lapse rates will promote some small
hail risk with elevated storms within nwd advancing srn flank of
storms later this morning.

Focus then turns to potentially more active period this
evening. Severe risk remains conditional owing to debris cloud
cover, morning convective overturning, poor mid lvl lapse rates
and limited low level theta-e plume. Exception lies south of
US24 where more vigorous diurnal heating is likely to occur and
generally removed from any spoiler morning storms and where
better overlap of the parameter space for supercells exists.
Regardless volatile kinematic env in place by evening with
extreme 0-3km shear present as denoted in all cam based
hodographs warrants much caution this evening.

Otherwise cold frontal boundary sweeps through the area this evening
downstream of intense cyclone lifting through the upper midwest. Mid
lvl dryslot and mixing will promote a mild and windy day Thu post
frontal. Sfc boundary stalls down near the OH river late Thu in
response to primary upper trough hanging back over the desert
southwest. This pronounced wave will eject out into the srn plains
Sat and mix frontal zone back north into the OH valley late Fri-late
Sat with likely several rounds of deep convection and some flood
risk in at least far srn zones.

More pronounced mean troughing dvlps thereafter through ern Canada
which in turn yields much cooler wx next week with showers at times
as a series of upper disturbances drop down through amplifying ern
NOAM flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Confidence in flight impacts from anticipated area of showers
and a few storms through 15Z Wed or so is low. A lot of dry air
needs to be overcome and convection will be elevated in nature.
Have made some adjustments at both location to time out peak
window for greatest coverage with the warm front. Have also
backed off on the much lower cigs for now near/south of the warm
front as we await the main front and risk for stronger storms
after 22Z. More fine tuning will be needed over the next 6 to 12
hours as we get a better handle on the evolution of the storms.
LLWS will ramp up overnight and persist much of the day.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Fisher