356
FXUS63 KIWX 221646
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1146 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect rain showers prevail during the day today.

- It will be dry and seasonable for the weekend, with the next
chances for rain arriving Sunday night into Monday.

- Additional chances for rain/snow will be possible mid to late
week around Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The low pressure system responsible for bringing us the first snow
of the season yesterday will continue to affect conditions today
as low clouds linger, temperatures remain below normal, and
additional precipitation will be possible. With temperatures in the
upper 20s to low 30s for lows this morning, slick spots are
possible for the Friday morning commute, especially on bridges
and overpasses.

A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low will
result in strong, gusty winds today, with gusts up to 30-35 mph
possible. Favorable north/northwesterly fetch will result in
scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan,
especially west of I-69. Forecast soundings indicate that
temperatures should be above freezing in the low to mid levels,
allowing for much of the precipitation to fall as rain. There
could be a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle this morning
should these showers start before surface temperatures rise
above freezing. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s today. Lake
effect showers come to an end by early Saturday morning.

Dry conditions prevail through much of the weekend as subsidence
returns. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is near
normal for this time of year. A large area of low pressure ejects
out of the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, traversing the Central Plains
and arriving to our area by Monday. With temperatures in the 40s,
precipitation will fall as rain late Sunday into the day on Monday.

Additional chances for rain/snow will be possible mid to late in the
week around Thanksgiving. It still too far out to determine impacts,
if any, for the Thanksgiving travel period. The intensity, timing,
and precipitation type(s) with this system will have to be ironed
out in the coming week. It is worth noting that even a week out,
both the ECMWF and GFS show much colder air arriving after
Thanksgiving. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting the end
of November and beginning of December for much below normal
temperatures across much of the CONUS in their 8-14 Day Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Lake effect rain showers are bending northeast away from KSBN,
at least in the short term. However, weak radar returns are
noted west of here perhaps indicating a shallow band of lake
effect showers. Therefore, have retained p6sm -SHRA for the time
being.


At KFWA, showers ongoing at the office indicate showers will
attempt to build into KFWA as the band bends east. This is in
contrast to the thinning of clouds noted on satellite around
KFWA, resulting in the slight adjustment of ceilings to the
TAFs.

Wind gusts so far today at both sites have been minimal, but
thinning of cloud cover and intermittent gusts around the area
result in a continued wind gust mention. Gusts will abate
overnight as will lake effect rain showers. Generally speaking,
MVFR ceilings are forecast to stick around through the TAF
period.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown