734
FXUS63 KIWX 021003
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
603 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

- Turning slightly warmer into early next week with the highs
  warming into the lower 80s Monday.

- Dry weather with mainly light winds through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

High zonal flow over an anomalously strong upper level ridge
with a height of 6000 meters over the southwest CONUS will
persist through the forecast period. The upper level ridge will
gradually amplify northeast into the Ohio River and Upper
Midwest regions. This amplification will help bring a gradual
increase in temperatures over the forecast area. Afternoon high
temperatures should be close to 83 degrees by Wednesday. These
warm surface temperatures are supported by 850 mb temperatures
from +16C to +17C by both the GFS and ECMWF. BUFKIT soundings
appear too dry in the lower and mid atmospheric levels to
support showers or storms through Monday. Some weak energy in
the form of short wave trofs will eventually arrive in the
Midwest by late Monday. Precipitable water values will rise
rapidly Monday night and should be close to 1.7 inches by late
Tuesday morning. BUFKIT max CAPES were generally less than 1000
J/Kg early next week. All considered, low to very low storm
coverage is expected mainly between 19Z and 01Z (3pm to 9pm EDT)
from Tuesday to Friday. WPC 7-day QPF is generally <0.10.

As for smoke, the RAP-NCEP and HRRR models appeared to be having
issues initializing the smoke. Vertically Integrated Smoke
analysis indicates values were above 40 mg/m2 just northwest of
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Existing TAFs are on track amid high pressure over the Great
Lakes. VFR conditions are expected with a diurnal uptick in
wind, followed by light wind overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-
     203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-
     177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Brown