229
FXUS63 KIWX 041027
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
627 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant summer weather today with low humidity and highs in the
  lower 80s.

- Becoming very warm by the end of the week with highs in the upper
  80s. Heat indices rising from 90 to around 95 this weekend.

- Very slim chances for showers and storms Tuesday and
  Wednesday, otherwise dry weather is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A weakening ridge of high pressure was over much of the Midwest
and extended into the Atlantic states. As with the past several
days, light winds and a few clouds were over this expansive
area. The latest smoke maps indicated an area of light smoke
was mainly aloft and was on the northern fringe of the forecast
area. A smoke intrusion into the forecast area is not expected.

An upper level ridge was over the southwest states. This system
will expand and build northeast into the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley regions. This expansion will bring warmer temperatures
with highs eventually reaching the upper 80s by Sunday. Heat
indices should reach the low to mid 90s, but should stay below
heat advisory criteria.

Light winds and very dry low and mid levels on BUFKIT soundings
through much of next week indicate the environment is only able
to support mainly isolated thunderstorms. Very low and highly
diurnal storm coverage is expected with storms forming almost
exclusively in the 19Z to 01Z window (3pm EDT to 9pm EDT). The
latest GFS soundings on BUFKIT show tall but thin CAPE with
weak flow and very limited shear. Max CAPEs were around 1200
J/Kg These factors should prevent storms from becoming severe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Existing TAFs were updated to account for increased coverage of
upper-level clouds. Otherwise, TAFs remain on track. Cannot rule
out a few guests this afternoon near 15kts or so. Otherwise,
wind follows a diurnal curve today with fair weather expected
thanks to a Great Lakes surface high.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-
     177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Brown