364
FXUS63 KIWX 071831
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
231 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, and breezy into this evening, with light rain and snow
  showers possible through the afternoon.

- Temperatures back well below freezing into the lower to middle 20s
  tonight and again Tuesday night.

- Next period of widespread precip expected Wednesday/Wednesday
  night. Precipitation may start as snow Wednesday morning
  before changing over to rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Hires reflectivity guidance for this cold front`s precipitation
output looks much more meager today as it swings through so will
continue to hold on to the slight/chance PoPs. Moisture depths
appear tall enough that some snow will be possible as colder than
negative 10C will have some moisture to create dendrites, but
wouldn`t be surprised to see some light rain mixed in as well.
Otherwise, the column looks rather devoid of moisture and that
starves the precip output keeping amounts low. There is some
moisture that resides behind the front, but it should stay west of
us where the better convergence resides. Low level lapse rates will
also be strong away from the front and this should allow for gusty
winds between 25 and 35 mph today. The front might be able to force
down some stronger gusts as it moves through potentially allowing a
maximum gust of around 40 mph. Gusts may linger into the overnight
as the temperature gradient remains and the CAA keeps mixing alive.

Temperatures are expected to tumble this evening, falling below
freezing with low to mid 20s likely. Some clouds residing in the
west as a result of lake enhancement make be able to provide a sort
of blanket keeping temps a little warmer by a few degrees in
the west. Some lake enhanced cloudiness could be around in our
northwest on Tuesday, but dry air will be taking over and
allowing for plenty of sunshine otherwise. This is as sfc high
pressure noses into the area. The aforementioned cold air cools
the area down to -10C at 850 mb and this keeps highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s on Tuesday. Low level lapse rates are still
strong, but the temperature gradient has relaxed with the high
pressure arriving and this keeps the breezes more limited on
Tuesday. Another night of cold, sub freezing temps Tuesday night
may make those plants that are outside and susceptible to cold
temps worthy of being protected. This time, we may be decoupled
enough to get radiational cooling, but still temps in the 20s
will be common.

So, we`ll be starting Wednesday with temperatures in the 20s. This
is important because a Pacific wave will be ejecting off the Rockies
Tuesday and its warm advection wing will be impacting the area late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Initial Ptypes appear to lean
towards snow, but some time between Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night, enough warming should take place to allow a mix
with or change over to rain. Given that the ground is expected to be
warmer with our multiple opportunities for severe weather with many
days of 70 degree high temps, accumulating snow should be relegated
to grassy areas if it falls hard enough. Residence time of this snow
in northeastern areas (say US-6 and I-69 corridor) may make it the
most conducive to seeing accumulating snow on grassy areas. It could
also end as a brief period of snow as the deformation zone moves
through the area Thursday afternoon. And if that`s the case, it
could be that our high temps on Thursday would be too high.

Then, what used to a precip chance late Sunday and Monday has gotten
drier as that system moves into Canada. So dry air takes over later
Friday and continues into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A cold front has passed through KSBN earlier today and this
front is on pace to reach KFWA within the hour. Northwest flow
and wind gusts near 30 knots are the primary impacts. Radar
returns are present, but 15-degree dew point depressions are
preventing any precipitation at the surface. In the wake of
this front, lake effect clouds are expected, primarily near
4kFT. Cannot rule out a period of MVFR ceilings overnight.

Ceilings are favored to mix out overnight at KFWA, further away
from the Lake`s influence.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Brown