140
FXUS63 KIWX 200024
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
824 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this afternoon through
  Wednesday night. There is a High Swim Risk for southeast Lake
  Michigan beaches this afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Cold frontal passage moving through today will bring less
  humid conditions for the remainder of the week.

- Much cooler conditions arrive for late weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A cold front currently draped northeast to southwest over
northwestern IN/southwestern MI per latest visible satellite
data and surface observations will continue to move
southeastward this afternoon. This will allow for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon mainly
south of US-24. A few of the storms may become strong with wind
as the main threat with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph in the
strongest storms. Heavy downpours will also be possible with the
still very humid conditions present with surface dew points in
the 70s. Effective bulk shear values will be minimal with less
than 20 kts available. SPC does have our southern portions of
the CWA under a marginal severe storm risk this
afternoon/evening.

In the wake of the cold front along with breezy northwesterly
winds tonight with gusts 15 to 20 mph and a return to drier
weather conditions we will also see a noticeably more
comfortable airmass push into the area over the next several
days with values in the lower 60s to upper 50s. High
temperatures will also be cooler with Wednesday values only in
the upper 70s with slightly warmer temperatures in the lower to
mid 80s through Saturday. This frontal passage will also bring
high swim risk to area Lake Michigan beaches with waves 3 to 5
feet with a few higher waves possible through Wednesday. This
will allow for dangerous rip currents and structural currents.
So best to stay out of the water and wear life-vests near the
water.

On Saturday, a trough originating over the Gulf of Alaska will
move south trough central Canada into the Great Lakes region and
will bring in another reinforcing shot of cooler air into the
area. High temperatures on Sunday and through at least Tuesday
will be in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s. Seemingly
our first taste of whats to come in the Fall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The surface low was still in the area, north of Lake Erie.
Although the precipitation has moved east out of northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio, a large area of MVFR/IFR clouds
extended well to the north and northwest of the surface low. The
low clouds are likely to persist through most if not all of the
TAF period through 00Z. Used the latest meso models to help
with timing and clearing of the clouds.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for
     MIZ277.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for MIZ177.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for LMZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper