562
FXUS63 KIWX 032257
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of rain showers expected from northwest to southeast
  late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Embedded,
  non-severe, thunderstorms are also possible.

- Another stretch of below normal temperatures Thursday through this
  weekend.

- There is a High Swim Risk for southern Lake Michigan beaches
  in La Porte, IN and Berrien County, MI on Thursday. Hazardous
  swimming conditions persist into Friday and Saturday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A strong cold front, currently near the WI/IL border and Lake MI,
will sweep southeast through the local area tonight. Scattered
pre-frontal showers, and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms,
will remain possible this afternoon across mainly nw IN and sw
MI on the leading edge of the theta-e gradient. More widespread
shower activity then accompanies the main front from nw to se
this evening into early Thursday as cva and upper divergence
overspread the frontal slope with adequate moisture to work
with. Robust post-frontal cold advection then brings unseasonably
cool wx back into the picture tonight into Thursday. A few lake
effect sprinkles or showers cannot be ruled out later tonight
into Thursday morning in nw/nc IN and sw MI as this colder air
surges over warmer Lake MI waters. Quick drying with flow
trajectories backing more westerly favor lower-end PoPs (10-
20%). Stratocu should scatter out during the day Thursday
otherwise with highs only reaching the mid-upper 60s.

The next shortwave trough and associated cold front will take a
similar path as it pivots through the western and southern
periphery of an Ontario upper low through the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. The bulk of any warm advection precipitation mainly
bypasses north late Thursday night, with shower chances appearing
low along the trailing cold front on Friday given a less favorable
moisture profile and exit of deeper ascent. The main impact will be
the somewhat breezy conditions on Friday with the fropa as sfc low
pressure emerges over the northern Great Lakes, with CAA and
steepening low level lapse rates likely supporting a few gusts up to
near 25-30 mph.

High pressure dominates this weekend into early next week on the
backside of the exiting longwave trough with cool weekend temps
(highs mid 60s to low 70s) warming back up to near 80F by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Cold frontal passage this evening will continue to bring rain
showers and MVFR vsbys in the heavier showers across the area
through about 04z Thu for KSBN and through 08z Thu for KFWA.
MVFR cigs will then continue through the early morning hours but
should see some improvements to mainly VFR conditions after
about 08z Thu for KSBN and after 12z Thu for KFWA. Gusty
westerly winds for both TAF sites tomorrow late morning through
afternoon with gusts up to around 20 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.
     Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen