Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Indianapolis IN
1223 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number One for Central
and much of Southern Indiana...
The early spring flood potential outlook covering the period mid-
February through mid-May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White
Rivers and their tributaries is near normal to slightly above normal.
The risk is higher than last year. A slightly above normal risk means
that minor flooding is expected on area rivers with moderate flooding
possible, particularly on the middle to lower Wabash, lower White,
and East Fork White.
Over the last three months, precipitation across all but far southern
Indiana has been 70 to 90 percent of normal. Across southern Indiana
near and along the Ohio River precipitation amounts have run
generally 100 to 130 percent of normal. During much of the fall and
winter drought conditions were in place across the state. While the
pattern became more active and trended to wetter than normal in
December, it still has not been enough yet to completely recover the
deficit, and abnormally dry conditions remain across much of northern
and central Indiana on the drought monitor. Precipitation over the
last two weeks has been focused on the Ohio River, with three to four
inches in that area and a tight gradient heading north. Amounts
across central Indiana ranged from a tenth of an inch to an inch,
with northern Indiana seeing a quarter inch to an inch and a half.
Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal for all but far southern
Indiana along the Ohio River. Snow depth ranges from three to four
inches along the lakeshore to up to an inch across much of north
central Indiana to little to nothing across parts of central and
southern Indiana. Seven day average streamflow is currently near
normal across much of central Indiana, with above normal streamflow
along the Ohio River and below normal streamflow across much of the
northern half of the state.
The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of
around half an inch over northwest Indiana to 1.0 to 1.5 inches over
central Indiana to 3 to 4 inches along the Ohio River. The 8 to 14
day outlook indicates likely below normal temperatures and
precipitation. The ten day river ensemble forecasts show less than 30
percent of any minor flooding developing in the hydrologic service
area, with the main flood threat over the next two weeks from the
Ohio River southward. Going forward, the 90 day seasonal outlook for
February through April shows likely above normal precipitation with
no clear signal for temperatures.
With a forecast for below normal temperatures over the next few
weeks, river ice may again form and thicken on area rivers. Thus the
threat for ice jams and ice jam flooding will need to be monitored
and evaluated through at least the end of February.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 47 31 29 10 8 <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 86 69 40 20 <5 <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 30 19 11 9 <5 <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 62 35 8 <5 <5 <5
Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 94 79 23 13 <5 <5
Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 85 62 25 17 <5 <5
Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : >95 >95 49 27 7 <5
Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 58 38 29 16 7 5
Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 90 67 30 17 <5 <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 74 64 33 26 <5 <5
:Flatrock River
Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 78 45 15 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 45 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 26 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 40 46 <5 9 <5 <5
:Wabash River
Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 92 92 20 20 <5 <5
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : >95 >95 18 20 <5 <5
Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 92 93 29 30 <5 <5
Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : >95 88 57 45 <5 <5
Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : >95 >95 31 24 <5 <5
Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 >95 31 28 <5 <5
Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 95 94 28 20 <5 <5
Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 83 81 26 26 <5 <5
:White River
Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 48 27 10 <5 <5 <5
Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 76 51 13 9 <5 <5
Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 74 49 14 10 <5 <5
Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : >95 91 38 22 <5 <5
Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : >95 93 37 21 <5 <5
Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : >95 95 45 30 13 6
Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 22 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 56 42 9 6 <5 <5
Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 62 43 15 8 <5 <5
Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : >95 82 42 33 <5 <5
Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : >95 93 52 27 19 6
Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 73 51 15 8 <5 <5
Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 90 85 25 19 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 69 61 19 17 8 6
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 9.2 9.6 10.6 12.7 15.4 17.4 18.8
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 9.7 10.7 11.6 13.6 14.6 15.1 15.2
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 3.4 4.0 4.6 7.4 9.4 11.1 12.9
:East Fork White River
Columbus 3.8 5.6 8.0 9.9 11.8 13.6 14.7
Rivervale 19.3 21.8 23.3 25.2 29.6 32.4 34.2
Bedford 17.1 19.4 21.2 23.6 27.0 29.5 31.6
Seymour 13.7 15.0 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.1
Shoals 11.6 14.8 17.5 21.2 25.7 28.6 30.8
Williams 6.8 8.1 9.0 11.3 14.6 17.0 18.6
:Eel River
Bowling Green 12.9 13.4 14.8 18.6 20.6 21.1 21.8
:Flatrock River
Columbus 8.7 9.5 11.3 12.8 14.0 15.5 16.1
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 9.5 11.3 13.2 15.9 20.8 22.6 25.7
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 9.1 9.8 10.9 13.5 15.0 16.3 17.0
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 5.0 5.4 6.3 7.4 8.9 10.3 11.3
:Wabash River
Covington 15.5 16.4 19.1 21.1 23.3 25.5 26.0
Hutsonville Legac 17.0 18.5 20.2 21.6 23.4 24.7 25.8
Lafayette 10.1 11.7 14.0 15.9 18.4 21.3 22.7
Mount Carmel 19.0 19.9 23.3 25.7 28.0 30.7 31.4
Montezuma 14.8 17.8 20.1 22.1 24.6 25.7 28.6
Riverton 15.8 17.2 18.9 20.5 22.5 24.1 25.4
Terre Haute 16.5 18.4 20.6 22.6 24.7 25.7 26.9
Vincennes 13.2 14.8 17.3 19.4 22.1 24.3 25.7
:White River
Anderson 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.9 11.3 14.9 16.7
Eagle Valley Powe 601.3 602.1 603.1 604.7 606.0 607.3 608.2
Centerton 9.6 10.7 11.9 14.0 15.4 16.2 16.8
Elliston 20.3 20.5 22.0 24.1 26.0 27.0 27.3
Edwardsport 17.3 17.5 19.0 20.8 23.2 24.4 24.6
Hazleton 18.2 20.0 21.8 23.6 26.0 28.5 29.4
Indianapolis 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.5 13.4 15.0 15.9
Muncie 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.0 8.6 10.6 11.7
Noblesville 10.6 11.1 12.2 14.6 16.8 18.8 19.6
Nora 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.9 14.6 16.7 17.6
Newberry 13.2 13.6 15.4 18.0 21.0 22.5 22.9
Petersburg 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.6 25.4 27.1 27.6
Ravenswood 4.7 5.3 5.9 7.0 8.8 10.5 11.2
Spencer 13.6 14.0 15.9 18.2 20.0 22.1 22.9
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 6.8 8.0 9.6 11.1 13.1 17.5 21.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
:East Fork White River
Rivervale 7.5 7.1 6.6 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.8
Bedford 6.0 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.7
Seymour 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.7
Shoals 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.5
Williams 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4
:Eel River
Bowling Green 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0
:Flatrock River
Columbus 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
:Wabash River
Covington 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7
Hutsonville Legac 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.3
Lafayette 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
Mount Carmel 7.6 7.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.8 3.6
Montezuma 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
Riverton 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7
Terre Haute 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8
Vincennes 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7
:White River
Anderson 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.9
Eagle Valley Powe 595.1 594.9 594.8 594.5 594.4 594.4 594.3
Centerton 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Elliston 8.4 8.2 7.7 6.7 6.1 5.8 5.4
Edwardsport 6.7 6.4 6.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.0
Hazleton 8.3 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.3
Indianapolis 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5
Muncie 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Noblesville 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6
Nora 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7
Newberry 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
Petersburg 7.3 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.4 3.2
Ravenswood 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Spencer 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s National Water Prediction Service
(NWPS).
Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information. For a graphical version of this product visit
weather.gov/ind/SpringHydrologicOutlook.
The next outlook will be issued February 27, 2025.
$$
CP