183
FXUS63 KIND 151732
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1232 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and fog ending this morning.

- Widespread fog possible tonight into Monday morning, locally dense.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures
 continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph possible Wednesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows deep low pressure over
Arkansas and Mississippi. High pressure was found over the TX/OK
panhandles nosing northeast toward IL and NW Indiana. The low to
the south was providing cyclonic lower level flow across southern
Central Indiana. A large cloud shield was in place across Indiana,
KY and TN with this feature, with some clearing shown over NW
Indiana building southeast. Radar shows the bulk of the
precipitation has exited to the southeast, but low clouds across the
area were resulting in some patchy fog and drizzle.

This afternoon the surface low is expected to drift farther east as
the ridge of high pressure to the north slowly builds southward
across Central Indiana. This will allow for a slow clearing through
the afternoon from the NW to the southeast. Overall, ongoing
forecast remains on track. Highs should reach around 50 with some
mid 50s possible across the northwest where clearing arrives first.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Low pressure is passing well to our south over the lower Mississippi
valley. Nevertheless, rain associated with broad isentropic lift has
overspread most of central Indiana ahead of this system. Rain has
been light to moderate at times, mainly from Lafayette to Kokomo
southward. North of this line, little if any rain has occurred with
a dry antecedent boundary layer limiting precipitation to virga.

Radar imagery already has hints of rain coming to an end, especially
further northwest. The northern edge of the precip shield has
gradually been shifting southward near Lafayette. High-resolution
guidance shows this trend continuing through the morning as the low
slides eastward. In the meantime, surface winds are rather light and
the ground remains cold from the recent bout of prolonged sub-
freezing temperatures. In fact, there are still multiple inches of
frozen ground down to almost 10 inches deep. This, combined with a
mild boundary layer saturated by rainfall, has lead to areas of fog.

These visibility reductions are not purely from moderate rainfall
rates. In fact, rain has let up a bit here at the WFO but glancing
out the window reveals fog forming just above the surface. This
likely continues into the morning hours, mainly in locations that
are currently seeing rain. Rain is expected to end by 15z, with
stratus lingering into the afternoon hours. Surface high pressure is
advancing from the west and broad subsidence will lead to gradually
clearing skies. Temperatures rebound into the low 50s today though
locations that retain stratus through the afternoon could be stuck
in the 40s.

Little in the way of an air mass change is expected behind the
departing system and boundary layer moisture will remain in place.
Clear skies, light winds, and broad subsidence combined with rich
moisture sets the stage for potentially widespread fog tonight into
Monday morning. Fog may be dense at times, especially further south
and east where more rain fell. A limiting factor for widespread
dense fog is high-level cloud cover, which arrives after about 09z.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday through Wednesday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected at the start of the extended as
surface ridging remains in place with high pressure centered east of
the region. Areas of fog are expected to linger Monday morning
before mixing out. Temperatures will trend through midweek due to
warm air advection ahead of an upper ridging building over the
eastern CONUS and increasing S/SW flow.

Long term guidance also depicts a low pressure system passing
through the Great Lakes Region with a warm front lifting north
across central Indiana Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will
support the warmest temperatures, potentially breaking daily
records. The current forecasted high for Wednesday in Indianapolis
is 68F which would break the daily record high of 66F back in 2017.
The current forecasted low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is
53F which would break the daily record warmest low of 46F back in
1981.

Scattered light showers are possible as the warm front lifts through
late Tuesday into Wednesday. These showers should diminish by
Wednesday afternoon though once the warm front lifts further
northeast. Forecast soundings depict some elevated instability so
there is a slight chance for some rumbles of thunder. A
strengthening MSLP gradient combined with diurnal mixing into a
strong LLJ will also promote windy conditions Wednesday. Look for
sustained winds between 15-25 mph and wind gusts as high as 35 mph.
Slightly higher gusts cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday night through the end of the week...

Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence towards late
week. Ensemble solutions are coming into slightly better agreement,
generally showing a negatively tilted shortwave aloft promoting
strong surface cyclogenesis near the Central Plains. The low
pressure system then pushes northeastward towards Indiana. This
supports the potential for precipitation and higher rain chances,
but exact details remain uncertain. Guidance does suggest at least
some instability could promote isolated thunderstorms. Will have to
watch for the potential of a few strong storms given there could be
favorable kinematics at play depending on the strength of the
surface low.

Highs are expected to be in the 60s once again Thursday thanks to
additional warm air advection. Look for temperatures to then trend
cooler thereafter as cooler air begins to filter in behind the late
week system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Impacts:

- Becoming VFR this afternoon.

- Fog expected tonight with high confidence for MVFR; IFR conditions
will be possible.

Discussion:

Low clouds associated with departing low pressure across Mississippi
will continues its push east, allowing high pressure to the
northwest to build across Indiana. This will allow for gradually
clearing this afternoon and skies will become VFR.

High pressure will be building across the TAF sites from the
northwest, along with clear skies and light winds. Forecast
soundings tonight show a dry column through as this occurs. Dew
point depressions overnight are shown to fall to less than 2F with
light winds and plentiful boundary layer moisture due to recent rain
and snowmelt. This will result in some MVFR fog overnight. Rural
area may have IFR fog conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Puma