195
FXUS63 KIND 030134
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
934 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temps to continue through the weekend with frost
  possible again tonight

- Milder but still largely below normal for the upcoming week, with
  multiple chances for rain; heavy rain possible at times

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally
evolving as expected. The main focus continues to be on the expected
frost tonight with models generally remaining in line with earlier
runs. A couple runs such as the WRF-ARW are running a few degrees
cooler with the potential for frost to the west of the current
Advisory area, but this model often overdoes radiational cooling.
With the winds becoming more southwesterly during the overnight,
modest moisture advection and at least some cirrus moving in from
the northwest should keep frost mostly limited to the current area
covered by headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A relatively chilly start to the forecast period with NW flow
aloft. Tonight will again see lows in the 30s and with mostly clear
skies and light winds, there is another chance for frost over most
of central Indiana.

The start of the new week will see multiple chances for rain as some
waves move through and then a cold front Tuesday. Outside of the
rain, wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected to mix down, mainly
during the afternoon hours. Late Monday into the overnight hours,
thunderstorms ahead of the front are possible with a marginal risk
of severe weather as cool temperatures aloft could help increase
lapse rates and instability. Hail and gusty winds will be the main
threat. Best chances for rain come as the front itself gets closer
and approaches from the NW, so Monday night throughout the day
Tuesday. Rain could continue to linger into Wednesday. Around half
an inch, possibly up to an inch in some spots, is expected with this
system.

Along and behind the front will again see below normal temperatures
for mid to late week. Lows for Wednesday and Thursday nights are
forecast to be in the low 40s but the potential to dip into the 30s
can`t yet be ruled out.

An upper wave late week will again lead to slight precipitation
chances but confidence is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Impacts:

- Wind shift from the northwest to southwest towards 02Z
- Southwesterly gusts of 25kts tomorrow afternoon

Discussion:

Diurnally driven cu will gradually continue to dissipate over the
next couple of hours leaving only a few passing cirrus clouds. Winds
will shift from the northwest to southwest towards 02Z but will
remain light through 16Z when gusts up to 25 kts returns. Clouds
will also gradually begin to increase through the daytime hours
tomorrow with a low-end threat for a few showers at LAF and
IND towards 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for INZ030-031-
037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...White
AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...KF