942
FXUS63 KIND 171356
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Peak heat indices around 100 degrees each afternoon through
Saturday

- Greater chance for showers and storms today and Saturday,
primarily during the afternoon and evening

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and more so Saturday PM, damaging wind gusts are the
primary threat

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made
to POPs through the day. A few showers and a stray storm developed
earlier this morning with marginal forcing and abundant moisture in
place. Look for isolated convection to remain possible during the
morning hours before daytime heating promotes more widespread
coverage into the afternoon hours.

At least moderate destabilization is expected later in the day with
steepening lapse rates. Forecast soundings support this with MLCAPE
generally around 2000 to 2500 J/KG and DCAPE values approaching
600 to 800 J/KG which suggest the potential for gusty winds in
stronger cells. Most thunderstorms will remain sub-severe given
weak deep-layer wind shear, but an isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out. Efficient rainfall rates from warm rain
processes may also result in localized flooding if any training
occurs.

Canadian wildfire smoke has made its way into portions of central
Indiana, primarily across northeastern counties. Increasing
southwesterly flow through the day should help to push the smoke
further north.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A more active pattern is expected going into the weekend with
multiple chances of showers and convection.

Temperatures over the next few days will be a few degrees less than
the past several, but with increased moisture, still expect heat
indices in the upper 90s to near 100 at times. Today will see
chances for showers and storms as a mid to upper level disturbance
combines with daytime heating within the hot and humid airmass in
place. While widespread severe is not expected, can`t rule out a few
stronger cells producing damaging winds, mainly across our eastern
half. Localized flooding could also be a threat, especially if any
training occurs.

Another shortwave with an associated cold front will move through
central Indiana Saturday, bringing additional convection and
slightly better chances of strong to severe cells with damaging
winds as the main threat. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30
kt of effective shear, strong destabilization with steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE values as high as 1000 to 1400 J/KG which
support the threat. The primary convective hazard is damaging wind
gusts. Isolated large hail cannot be ruled out either, but the
threat will quickly lessen as upscale growth occurs. The main
timing appears to be from the mid afternoon through the early
overnight hours.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires is also expected to drift into our NE
today. This smoke should fully push off to the east by Saturday from
the front moving through.

Behind the surface front, a surface high will move into the region
with NW flow aloft helping to bring in slightly drier air and a
brief break from convection. While models start to diverge for next
week, they do show a chance of a shortwave potentially bringing
additional rain chances early to mid week followed by cooler and
even drier air for mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered/numerous -SHRA/TSRA this afternoon/early evening

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions are expected near central Indiana terminals
through the TAF period with possibly periods of generally MVFR 18Z-
23Z amid stronger SHRA/TSRA.

Winds will be calm or light/variable into the morning and then from
generally 190-250 degrees sustained at 3-6KT after 16Z outside of
stronger cells, with flow closer to 6-9KT at KIND through 12Z
Saturday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF