403
FXUS63 KIND 231556
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance of precipitation late afternoon to late evening.

- Turning even cooler and less humid on Sunday.

- Temperatures near to below normal throughout the next week with
little to no chance for rain until the end of the month.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Surface analysis this morning shows a cold front stretching from
MI...across SE WI To NRN IL and NRN MO. High pressure was found over
the deep south. This placed central Indiana within the warm sector
ahead of the cold front with westerly lower level flow. GOES16 shows
a thin band of clouds near the cold front, stretching from the Great
Lakes to MO and KS. Radar shows a very thin line of showers/storms
along the front over MI and IL. Dew Point temps were in the 60s.

Forecast soundings show convective temperatures being reached this
afternoon and CU development is expected. Furthermore, the front
will continue its approach and associated clouds will arrive from
the northwest. Thus expect increasing clouds this afternoon. Much of
the day will be spent within the warm sector, thus highs should be
able to reach the lower 80s. Will monitor the progression of the
thin line of showers, however HRRR dissipates this line upon
approach and confidence remains low as deep moisture remains
unavailable.

Overall, ongoing forecast is in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Surface high pressure is moving across the area early this morning,
leading to light winds and a mix of patchy fog and stratus that
should last through around daybreak. Brief isolated patches of near
dense fog is also possible.

As the day goes on, an approaching cold front, moving from NW to SE,
will start to impact the weather. Recent CAMs have been delaying the
arrival of the front to later this afternoon through late evening so
have reflected this slow down in the forecast. This afternoon will
see an increase in cloud coverage ahead and along the front as well
as the potential for some drizzle and light rain/ isolated storms.
Confidence on precipitation remains low as model soundings show a
largely dry column with just a thin saturated layer and minimal
forcing to work with. Best chances will be across the north and from
late this afternoon to late evening.

Temperatures this afternoon are still expected to reach near 80 but
once the front passes this evening, overnight lows are expected to
drop to mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The previous forecast discussion remains relevant and captures
the long term well. Previous discussion follows:

A significant pattern change is in the forecast for much of the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley featuring well below normal temperatures
and dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

While relatively cooler temperatures have been observed over the
past several days, an even stronger front ushers in a Fall-like
airmass on Sunday bringing some of the coldest temperatures of the
season thus far!

Synoptically, deep upper troughing remains in place over the Great
Lakes and Southern Canada through the entire week, keeping Indiana
within a northwest flow pattern aloft. Smaller waves dropping
southward from Canada are forecast to bring reinforcing shots of
cooler air into the region by the end of the week, further
prolonging the extended period of below normal temperatures. At the
surface, high pressure will be the dominant weather influence
locally, keeping the atmospheric profile dry enough to inhibit any
precipitation develop as moisture starved waves pass by overhead.
High pressure briefly slides south of the state on Wednesday,
switching flow around to the southwest, before another front brings
another round of below normal temperature anomalies for the weekend.

Sunday through Wednesday, expect highs in the low to mid 70s with
lows each night falling into the upper 40s to low 50s! Tuesday and
Wednesday morning will feature the coldest temperatures since early
June with widespread upper 40s for Central and North Central
Indiana. Would not be surprised to see lows at or below 45 degrees
in low lying, wind sheltered areas.

Brief and weak warm air advection on Thursday ahead of the next
approaching front should result in highs a few degrees warmer than
earlier in the week with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Very
dry antecedent conditions and subsidence from high pressure nearby
should inhibit precipitation development along the front.

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain next weekend and into
early September as longer range guidance struggles with how
blocking patterns evolve. High confidence exists in a pattern
supportive of below normal temperatures into early September, but a
lot of uncertainty remains in the timing and location of incoming
synoptic features. It is looking possible that rain chances increase
once again by around Labor Day as longer range guidance continues to
hint at an area of low pressure in the vicinity, but it is too soon
to dive into any further details as run to run changes are likely.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

High pressure will depart this afternoon as a cold front over MI and
IL pushes across the TAF sites this evening. The front will be
accompanied by VFR clouds through the late afternoon and into the
evening.

Strong and cooler high pressure will build across Central Indiana in
the wake of the front. This will result in continued VFR conditions
overnight and into Sunday. Forecast soundings agree, showing a dry
column with only some stratocu saturation expected with the frontal
passage.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma