004
FXUS63 KIND 200355
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1155 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers this evening then again Sunday morning

- Additional threat for rain and storms Sunday night into early
  Monday morning

- Generally above normal temperatures next week with
  precipitation chances mid-late week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Quiet conditions were across central Indiana this evening, with just
perhaps some patchy sprinkles or very light showers over northern
parts of the area. Temperatures were cooling through the 50s under
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

With lingering moisture and weak upper energy moving through the
southwest upper flow, cannot rule out some isolated showers through
the night. Kept some slight chance PoPs most areas tonight. With no
instability around to speak of, left out any mention of thunder.

With winds becoming light and some of the lower clouds breaking up
across the north, wouldn`t be surprised to see some brief patchy fog
late this evening or into the early overnight. Winds will increase
overnight as the next wave approaches, ending this threat. For now,
am not confident enough that coverage will be enough to include in
the forecast. Will continue to monitor.

Based on latest trends in temperatures, nudged down low temperatures
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The next round of convection moving into the forecast area this
afternoon is riding along the frontal boundary draped across the
region. North of the boundary temperatures were stuck in the mid and
upper 50s over northern counties...with 60s along the I-70 corridor
and lower 70s across south central Indiana.

The cold front will slide south into this evening eventually
stalling just south of the Ohio River early Sunday before returning
north as a warm front by the afternoon in response to low pressure
lifting north through the Missouri Valley. With the front in a
nearby proximity to the forecast area through the near term...cloud
swill remain in abundance with a few opportunities for showers and a
few rumbles of thunder before a predominantly dry and warmer Sunday
afternoon.

Through Early Evening

There remains a small...conditional threat for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps large hail with any stronger elevated cores on the
southern flank of the convective cluster lifting out of southern
Illinois. Suspect the primary threat for any severe weather will
reside south of the forecast area through the rest of the afternoon
where better surface heating has occurred and the primary axis of
MLCAPEs will align immediately ahead of the southward moving front.

There has been subtle heating thanks to a thinning of the cloud deck
across the southeast counties and have a narrow window through about
21-22Z where stronger convection could develop and pose a locally
higher impact. Otherwise...expect showers with an occasional rumble
of thunder for much of the forecast area into the early evening with
showers decreasing in coverage thereafter.

Rest of the Evening through Sunday

The passage of high pressure through the Great Lakes tonight will
push the front to just south of the Ohio River with a cooler
northerly flow developing across the area. The lack of any
appreciable lift will keep showers isolated to scattered for much of
the night but model soundings show plenty of moisture lingering
through the column with cloud coverage remaining plentiful as a
result.

Deeper moisture will advect back into the mid Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valley in the predawn hours in response to the developing
surface wave over central Texas lifting north and influencing the
frontal boundary to return into the forecast area. Rainfall coverage
will increase from the southwest just prior to daybreak then
gradually lift north with the warm front through early afternoon.
Much of the second half of the day should be dry as the boundary
moves north of the forecast area. May see filtered sunshine as well
along with an increase in southeast winds.

Temps...drier cooler air will be advected south into the region
tonight with lows ranging from the upper 40s over northern counties
to the mid and upper 50s south of I-70. With the return of the front
north on Sunday...low level thermals support a broad gradient
ranging from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 in far southern
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Sunday night through Monday...

A low pressure system will move through early in the extended
bringing widespread precipitation and the potential for some
thunderstorms. Latest guidance has backed off on the severe weather
potential Sunday night keeping the threat further west in IL. While
forecast soundings depict favorable instability and deep-layer wind
shear for organized thunderstorms during the evening, overall
forcing across central Indiana is very weak.

Precipitation should remain confined to near and just ahead of the
associated cold front which is not expected to move in until late
Sunday. Instability should be rather weak by the time the front
moves in which greatly limits the potential for severe weather. A
few storms could still be strong with the potential for gusty winds.

Scattered showers may linger into Monday morning, but look for
precipitation chances to quickly taper off during the day as the
cold front shifts east. Increasing subsidence from high pressure
building along with drier air filtering in should provide quiet
conditions by the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates will help
mix down strong LLJ winds to the surface. Expect wind gusts up to 35
mph.

Monday night onward...

Subtle upper ridging and surface high pressure building in supports
quiet weather persisting through at least Tuesday night. Latest
guidance depicts ridging not breaking down until late Wednesday
which favors dry conditions likely lasting even through the day
Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a shortwave approaching the region
will lead to increasing rain chances. Precipitation chances are
low initially due to relatively weak forcing, but a deeper trough
approaching later in the week should support more widespread rain.
Expect temperatures to remain above normal for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR and worse conditions through the period in precipitation
  but conditions will mostly be VFR

- There will be a few showers are this morning and convection
  including the potential for strong thunderstorms will return
  after 06z Monday

- LLWS possible after 03z Monday

- Winds

Discussion:

A stationary front, near the Ohio River, will return as a warm front
today as a low pressure system moves into the Plains. This will
allow winds to switch back to the southeast this afternoon and south
tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front will also approach the Wabash
Valley overnight. Increased instability, moisture and lift will
bring widespread showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms to
the terminals toward the end of the TAF period. Flying conditions
will mostly be VFR but MVFR and worse at times in convection. LLWS
and south winds gusting to near 25 knots are also expected overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...MK