132
FXUS63 KIND 061900
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon through
  the evening. Isolated severe storms possible south

- Active weather continues into Saturday with localized heavy
  rain likely Saturday night into Sunday

- Cooler than normal with periodic rain early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The low cloud cover that impacted this mornings weather has lifted
leaving some patchy cloud cover across the NE half of central
Indiana. This is quickly filling in from the south, with broken alto
cumulus and stratus arriving ahead of a weak surface wave. This
will be the main feature to watch for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon and through the evening.

These waves are forming within strong zonal flow aloft, providing
just enough upward lift to tap into an unstable layer about 1000-
2000ft above the surface. This will lead to increasing convection
across central Indiana within the net 2 to 4 hours, beginning over
western Indiana, and pushing eastward. Generally, showers and
thunderstorms should remain mostly scattered, but in far southern
central Indiana, greater deformation in the low level will likely
lead to an increase in coverage between 5-9PM this evening.

Severe weather is unlikely tonight without steep lapse rates and
strong low level winds. However, there is enough mid to upper level
shear for a very isolated strong to severe thunderstorm (1in
hail/60mph winds) south of I-70. The focus would be on any strongly
forced updraft that is able to continuously tap into this greater
energy aloft.

Forcing is expected to exit quickly following wave passage
overnight, decreasing pops quickly after 02Z. Winds will also
quickly diminish over southern central IN, near a stalled boundary.
This will be an area to watch for potential for development
overnight, but will likely depend on clearing and amount of latent
heat surface fluxes overnight.

Lows tonight will be from around 60 to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saturday Through Monday.

Through most of the day on Saturday, the front that has brought
active weather to the area over the last few days will remain
stalled south of the forecast area across Kentucky. This should help
to limit the rain chances across much of central Indiana with most
models keeping any QPF limited to just the southern portions of
central Indiana through the early afternoon hours.

Another upper level low is expected to move through central Indiana
Saturday night with additional thunderstorms likely ahead of the low
Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the low, stronger southerly
flow will return as a surface low undergoes cyclogenesis with good
model agreement in a period of heavy rain during the 00Z to 06Z
timeframe just ahead of the low. Model QPF varies on the exact
details but a broad 0.5 to 1.5 inches is likely with a narrower
swath of 2-3 inches.

A stronger upper level low will sink southeastward in the aftermath
of the Saturday system which will bring cooler air and renewed
lighter rain Sunday into Monday. There is some model differences
towards Monday as to where the jet stream will set up which will
impact where the better chances of precipitation will be. Confidence
is highest across the southern counties with ensemble probabilities
maximized towards the Ohio River.

Tuesday Through Thursday.

The upper level low will spin across the Great Lakes region into the
middle of the week which will help to keep temperatures slightly
below normal with higher than normal cloud cover. Periodic rain will
impact central Indiana but with no connection to Gulf air, amounts
will be light. High pressure begins to build going into Thursday as
the upper level low finally pushes off to the east with weak surface
winds and gradually warming temperatures to finish the work week.
Looking towards the weekend and beyond, the pattern begins to shift
more active again with above normal precipitation likely.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Impacts:

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening

- FG potential at KBMG late tonight into tomorrow morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 12 hours
outside of conditions within showers and thunderstorms. Current
ceilings are around 4000ft, and should remain around this level
through this evening. After showers pass after 02Z, ceilings should
raise to 8-10kft.

Scattered showers and some storms will return this afternoon, mainly
for the southern sites. Will use PROB30 for now, but once confidence
increases in timing, TEMPOs may be needed for KHUF/KBMG.

Patchy fog is likely to develop in southern IN tonight, including at
KBMG. Will use 1SM BR for two hours to represent this for now, but
this may be fine tuned at later issuances.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Updike