989
FXUS63 KIND 011632
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1232 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions today through the weekend with highs in the
  upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s

- Smoke aloft will keep skies opaque through Saturday, some haze
  is possible through mid-morning today

- Rain chances return by Monday and persist through mid-late next
  week with temperatures warming back to near normal

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Abundant sunshine this morning but with a layer of haze lingering
across much of the forecast area near and north of I-70 courtesy of
smoke from the Canadian wildfires that has again worked down into
the region. 13Z temperatures were pleasant in the 60s.

High pressure is settling over the Ohio Valley with what will be the
nicest day from a temperature and weather standpoint in several
weeks. The only issue focuses on the haze and smoke which should
gradually drift west into Illinois over the next few hours. Have
held onto a mention of both haze and smoke over the northern half of
central Indiana through midday with brighter skies for the
afternoon. Low level thermals support highs in the upper 70s for
most with dewpoints steadily falling back into the lower and mid
50s. Breezy northeast winds will continue.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Today.

A few areas of fog are possible this morning, especially across the
Wabash Valley and portions of north central Indiana where surface
winds will be dropping to near calm along with the mostly clear
skies currently overhead. Drier air just above the surface should
keep the fog shallow and limited to more favored fog formation
areas, but will be monitoring satellite imagery and surface
observations and will adjust the forecast if fog formation is more
widespread than currently expected.

Quiet weather is expected for today with dew points gradually
falling through the afternoon with a combination of drier air
advecting in from the northeast and afternoon mixing with model
soundings showing very dry air at the top of the boundary layer.
Model soundings show RH values in the single digits above the
boundary layer which should bring dew points into the low to mid 50s
by the late afternoon hours. Winds at the top of the boundary layer
will be in the 20-25 mph range, especially towards Muncie which will
bring occasional gusts of at least 20 mph through the afternoon.
There should be at least some diurnal cu along with the smoke aloft,
so plan on limiting the sky values to no lower than 30 to have the
partly clouding wording.

Tonight.

Cooler weather is in store for tonight with the surface dew points
in the low to mid 50s along with the partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. Most areas will drop into the 50s with the potential for some
low 50s across north central Indiana. Fog chances look minimal to
none with the much drier air.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Saturday Through Monday.

Quiet and cooler than normal weather will dominate the weekend with
broad surface high pressure across the Great Lakes region. The HRRR
smoke model continues to show smoke aloft through the day Saturday,
so plan to continue to limit sky cover to no lower than 30 percent
to maintain the partly cloudy wording. No surface impacts expected
with the smoke staying aloft. Model soundings show deep mixing into
very dry air aloft which will allow for dew points to end up on the
lower end of model guidance with mid-afternoon dew points in low to
mid 50s with occasional wind gusts of 15-20 mph.

Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80 with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to near 60. The pattern will begin
to shift Monday as the surface flow gains a more southerly
component which will bring slight warmer temperatures and an
increase in the surface dew points.

Tuesday Through Thursday.

Rain chances gradually begin to increase beginning Tuesday with weak
upper level waves moving southeast along the nose of the upper level
ridge. There remains significant model uncertainty in both the
timing and strength of each wave, so plan on keeping POPs fairly
broad brushed into the middle of the week with daily maximums in the
afternoon during peak heating. Temperatures will gradually warm back
to near normal with a return of mid 60 to near 70 degree dew points
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Impacts:

- Northeast wind gusts peaking at around 20kts through the afternoon
- Brief haze possible Saturday


 Discussion:

Largely VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. A band of cu
has developed off the western basin of Lake Erie southwest into the
region. The cu will linger and potentially expand over the next few
hours before diminishing late day as drier air builds in from the
north. Winds will gust occasionally to around 20kts through early
evening then diminish to 5-10kts tonight. Skies will be mainly clear
tonight into Saturday with just some cirrus and despite increased
subsidence...few to scattered diurnal cu by midday. E/NE winds at 10-
15kts are expected by Saturday afternoon.

Smoke density aloft has diminished early this afternoon with
visibilities at VFR levels at the terminals. A renewed surge of
thicker smoke aloft will advect south out of lower Michigan early
Saturday and may lead to periods with slightly lower visibilities
from haze. Will continue to monitor trends through the rest of
today and into tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan