153
FXUS63 KIND 222300
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
600 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady warming through the weekend into early next week, with
  highs near or above 50 most areas Monday - Wednesday

- Breezy at times this week, especially Monday

- A low chance for rain Monday night with slightly more substantial
  chances Wednesday - Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Quiet weather will continue through tomorrow as surface high
pressure pushes through the area providing large scale subsidence.
Temperatures started moderation today with the bulk of the Arctic
airmass gone, and will continue to warm tomorrow associated with the
surface high weakening and pushing east, ushering in modest warm
advection. This should gradually raise 850mb temperatures leading to
an overall 24 hour warmup in both lows and highs. Current
expectation is for lows tonight near 20 and highs tomorrow in the
low 40s.

Through this WAA, an expansion of the PBL is expected. As this PBL
becomes well mixed tomorrow afternoon, expect occasional gusts to
around 20mph. Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24
hours outside of some passing cirrus.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

The long term period will be warmer with multiple short waves moving
through the region. Temperatures will warm into the 50s for the
first few days of the work week thanks to SW flow and strengthening
WAA. Some spots in the south may even see 60 degrees on Wednesday
with the WAA is strongest ahead of an approaching system. If there
is any lingering snow on the ground past Sunday, it will quickly
melt early in the week.

The first short wave could bring light precipitation late Monday
night but recent model runs have the associated low tracking further
north into Canada in addition to a southern stream trough keeping
the Gulf moisture from reaching central Indiana. While there is a
chance for some rain for the northern half of the forecast area with
this system, confidence remains low so have kept only low PoPs in
the forecast for now. Some breezy winds will be more likely
Monday afternoon as the LLJ moves through, producing gusts of
around 25 mph. The better chance of rain comes midweek with a
surface low tracking over the Great Lakes and the cold front
associated with it lifting the Gulf moisture that will be advected
into the area. There are still some disagreements in the models
as to the timing and strength of this system, but still pretty
confident that the forecast area will see some rain with it and
moving through sometime Wednesday into early Thursday.

Behind the front will see cooler temperatures, but will only drop to
near to slightly above normal for this time of year and continue
into the weekend. Models do vary for the latter half of the long
term, but there is a potential for another passing wave to bring
additional precipitation, maybe even a rain/snow mix, sometime over
the weekend. Otherwise, dry conditions will be prominent for late
week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Impacts:

- None; VFR Conditions are expected

Discussion:

Strong surface high pressure centered over TN and MS will be in
control of our weather throughout the period, leading to mostly
clear skies and unrestricted visibility.

Forecast soundings and time heights support this continuing to
suggest a dry column and subsidence.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma