277
FXUS63 KIND 061612
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and t-storms possible northern central Indiana

- A few storms this afternoon and evening may contain damaging
  winds and large hail...with isolated flooding possible

- Humid, very warm conditions start Sunday...with occasional, often
  PM showers/t-storms, especially on Monday and Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure in place over MN
and WI. High pressure was also found over east of the Carolinas,
providing southerly flow to Central Indiana. A frontal boundary was
found between these two systems, lying along a IA...northern IL...MI
line. Radar this morning shows some convection over NW IN, sagging
southward  toward LAF and Kokomo. Radar V returns suggest 35-40 knts
of wind aloft...subsevere. Water vapor shows an upper low over TX.
Ahead of this low a tropical plume of moisture with embedded
disturbances was found pushing into the TN and Mississippi Valleys.

Through mid day, the thunderstorm cluster over NW Indiana is
expected to continue to drift east, passing across the northern
parts of Central Indiana, including Kokomo, Anderson, Alexandria,
Muncie and Winchester. GOES19 shows warming tops at the moment
during this diurnally unfavorable time for convection. Thus will
continue to use high pops through the morning hours as these features
pass.

Pops will continue to be needed through the afternoon. The
combination of the diurnal heating, the frontal boundary sagging
southward and forcing aloft approaching from the southwest are
plenty of ingredients for storm development. Given the convection
and clouds across the area, convective temperatures will not be
reached until mid to late afternoon. Given this, after this
morning/s convection passes there should be a few hours of dry
weather early this afternoon. Forecast soundings late in the day
show steep lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for convection, and HRRR
does redevelop storms late today as the front sags southward.
Ongoing forecast with highs in the mid and upper 80s look on the
mark and little overall changes will be made there.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

More active pattern for central Indiana to begin today, with showers
and at least a few thunderstorms favored into the middle of next
week...with the return to generally dry conditions likely allowing
widespread low 90s and potentially 100F+ heat indices.  Generally
disturbed pattern to exhibit overly diurnally-driven showers/TRWs,
with more widespread rain coverage focused this afternoon/tonight
across the CWA`s northern half...and then for all zones within the
Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Northern wave crossing the Great Lakes today will drag the tail of
its cold front across the northern Midwest...setting the stage for
showers and t-storms early this morning along our northern tier
where southwest breezes will combine with lift from this approaching
boundary.  Cannot rule out a few stronger cells, although very low
confidence in any damaging wind threat early today.  Better shot at
marginally strong/severe storms arrives this afternoon/evening and
possibly into portions of the overnight...as the next wave to our
west helps direct ribbon of increasing Gulf moisture into the
stationary boundary.  Focus will remain over region`s northern half,
albeit now with opportunities for a few severe storms with winds and
hail the only modes of concern, with the threat slowly waning during
the evening.  Perhaps greater overall concern will be localized
flash flooding as heavier rain may train west to east over same
areas, with chances for flooding increasing through PM hours over
far northern zones.

Turning to next week, a weakly forced and slowly-progressing short
wave...nestled on the west side of an eastern-NA upper ridge... will
drift from the central US today, to Indiana Monday night.  This
feature will combine with broad but weak surface ridging to our east
to promote slow increase of Gulf moisture northward into the
Midwest, with precipitable water values over 1.75 inches from dawn
Sunday into the mid-week.  Unsettled and humid set-up will often
host considerable cloudiness, as readings range from a muggy 70F or
so to somewhere in the 80s...with temperatures slowly trending
upward into the mid-week.  Often isolated to scattered showers and a
few rumbles of thunder will surround a 24-hour period of more
widespread showers and scattered thunder within Monday-Tuesday when
the short wave slowly trucks east across Indiana.  Too early to
decipher if any severe storms will occur, but at least isolated
strong cells will be on the table.

Turning hot at the end of the period amid southwest gusts around
10-20 mph both Wednesday and Thursday under decreasing clouds.
Highs will most likely reach the low 90s for Thursday and Friday
for most locations, while oppressive dewpoints still in the 70-75F
realm boost heat Indices potentially to 95-105 degrees during
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

CU development along with sct-iso TSRA devlopment is expected this
afternoon as daytime heating and a frontal boundary sagging south
across Indiana set up favorable conditions for diurnal convection.
HRRR shows showers and storm development late this afternoon and
into the evening primarily remaining across points north of I-74.
Thus have mentioned VCTS and PROB30 groups at IND and LAF through
the afternoon and into the evening.

Overnight, the front will be lingering across Central Indiana, but
little to no forcing will arrive. Thus will keep the overnight
period dry with VFR Cigs.

Better chances for showers and storms will arrive on Sunday as some
upper forcing begins to push into the area ahead of an upper trough
to the west. Thus VCTS will return to the TAF forecasts after 14Z on
Sunday as daytime heating resumes.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...AGM