131
FXUS63 KIND 071906
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front
  passes

- Rain ends by this evening and skies becoming mostly clear
  overnight

- Potential for frost threat Wednesday and Thursday nights with lows
  expected to be in the upper 30s

- A return to prolonged dry weather mid week onward, accompanied by
  gradually warming temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Upper-level analysis shows a large but fast-moving trough over the
Midwest. A mid-level disturbance is located at the base of the
trough over western KY into southern Indiana. This feature is
beginning to accelerate northeastward as interaction with the larger
trough begins to take hold. At the surface, a cold front extends
across central Indiana from about Bloomington to Shelbyville to
Muncie, moving southeastward. Until recently, shower activity
associated with the front was largely disconnected from the shower
activity associated with the mid-level disturbance to our south. The
gap is beginning to fill in as the faster-moving front is now
catching up to the disturbance.

Going forward, shower activity is anticipated to continue through
the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. A few thunderstorms
are possible as well, though thermal profiles are not overly
unstable at the moment. Thunder should be isolated to scattered at
best. Temperatures are slowly climbing into the low 70s as of 1pm,
with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Despite poor lapse rates,
the deep moisture profile combined with the high freezing level has
lead to efficient rainfall production today. Heavy rain is possible,
but flooding potential will remain low due to antecedent dry
conditions.

Once the front clears the area tonight, cool dry air will filter in
from the north. Surface high pressure of around 1030mb is modeled to
arrive tomorrow and persist through the remainder of the week. Broad
subsidence will lead to clear skies and light winds, which is ideal
for nocturnal radiative cooling potential. Guidance is in good
agreement that the next few nights will be the coldest of the season
so far. There may be enough wind, however, to prevent fog tonight in
combination with dry air advection. Rural areas may dip into the 40s
tonight with 30s possible tomorrow night. As for highs, temperatures
may struggle to climb out of the 60s tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue
Oct 7 2025

The long term will likely be dry for most of the period while
temperatures go from below normal then warm to above normal by next
week.

Ridging aloft will be progressing eastward across the CONUS through
next week with high pressure and subsidence persisting at the
surface. Models are showing a possible upper level low forming over
the Great Lakes this weekend, which could bring rain to parts of the
region. High pressure over central Indiana should keep away any rain
for us but can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles at some point,
mainly across the north.

While models get noisy going into next week and beyond, there is a
consensus for a slowly approaching trough system will be the next
best shot at rain chances. Still unsure on timing, but the earliest
rain may arrive would be mid-next week. Latest guidance has further
lowered the PoPs it had in previously, leaving only minimal chances
for the tail end of the forecast period. Thus, dry conditions return
and persist for the period.

Temperatures will start off with highs in the 60s, warming back into
the 70s to near 80 by the start of next week. Wednesday night and
Thursday night, lows are expected to be in the upper 30s, and thus
there could be a threat for some frost those nights. Lows the
remainder of the period will then quickly return to upper 40s to
50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Impacts:

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with MVFR or
  lower conditions possible.

- MVFR ceilings to persist into the night, clearing between 06z-09z.

Discussion:

A cold front is moving through Indiana as of 18z and winds have
taken on a northern component at all terminals. Northerly winds
should gradually increase to between 10-14kt this afternoon and
evening, slowly tapering off during the night.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible with the front this
afternoon and we`ve added a prob30 group for IND and BMG where the
best chance currently is. LAF and HUF are far enough behind the
front to limit storm chances. Brief reductions to MVFR or even IFR
are possible in showers/storms.

MVFR ceilings will continue into tonight with clearing expected as
dry air arrives between 06z-09z. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff