279
FXUS63 KIND 300144
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
944 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible

- Warming trend possible for the first week of August

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Forecast is in good shape, so no significant changes were made.

Cumulus will continue to dissipate, and some elevated smoke will
continue (especially south). Tweaked sky cover based on latest
trends seen on satellite.

Temperatures are cooling quickly in sheltered and favored cold
areas, so adjusted hourly forecasts as needed.

Patchy fog still looks possible with winds diminishing as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Surface high pressure is building into the region today and a cooler
and much drier air mass is now in place. Temperatures have risen
into the low-mid 80s and dew points have dropped into the upper 50s
in a few places. Efficient boundary layer mixing has allowed dew
points to fall a bit below guidance. We`re expecting similar mixing
conditions on Thursday so will nudge dew points downward.
Additionally, high temperatures may run a few degrees above guidance
as well. Still, near to slightly below-average readings are
expected.

The next few nights may see some patchy fog, which may be locally
dense at times. Fog is not expected to be widespread, confined
mainly to rural areas and near/along rivers. Fog may linger into the
morning hours before rapidly dissipating as mixing resumes.

Aloft, troughing over the northeastern US will promote northwesterly
flow across the Midwest. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement
showing a shortwave trough diving southeast within this flow,
arriving late Friday. A round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible late Friday evening and overnight. Guidance then slows the
shortwave down as western ridging amplifies. This should bring high
rain probabilities into the day Saturday, potentially into early
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible owing to the
slow system motion.

Looking into next week, the weekend shortwave departs eastward while
the polar jet lifts north. Though there is no strong signal for
either troughing or ridging, the jet stream residing well to our
north should allow temperatures to creep upwards. A warming trend is
therefore favored next week with highs potentially reaching into the
upper 80s / near 90 at times. Some guidance keeps the jet stream
active, with frequent storm systems embedded within the broader
flow. This may act to keep daily precipitation chances above average
through next week as well. However, the signal regarding
precipitation is less clear than for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog at KLAF overnight

Discussion:
It`s been a cool and crisp morning so far with a localized area of
fog over eastern portions of our area. Visibility has been around
a mile on average, based on reports and traffic cameras, but a few
instances of locally dense fog have occurred. The fog should
gradually lift into a low stratus layer while drifting westward.
Any lingering stratus should quickly dissipate later this morning
as boundary layer mixing takes its toll. Expecting high temps to
be a bit above guidance today owing to the efficient boundary
layer mixing. Dew points likely a bit below guidance as well.
Cumulus will gradually dissipate this evening, with some lingering
elevated smoke around. Winds will diminish some as well.

With mostly clear skies and lighter winds overnight, some patchy fog
will develop. Feel that conditions will be favorable enough at KLAF
to put in a period of MVFR fog with a BCFG mention there. Fog cannot
be ruled out at KHUF/KBMG, but for now feel odds are too low to
mention.

Any fog will mix out by around 12Z Thursday, with more scattered
diurnal cumulus developing.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff