645
FXUS63 KIND 251058
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
658 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers possible today, primarily across
  southwest central Indiana

- Hot and humid conditions return Sunday and Monday with highs
  reaching the 90s

- Storm complexes possible Sunday night and Monday nights

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Today through tonight...

A mid-upper level shortwave moving through the region today will
promote increasing clouds. Modest forcing from the disturbance
combined with deeper moisture advecting into the area supports
the potential for scattered showers. The greatest coverage should
be across southwestern counties where the strongest forcing and
deeper moisture overlap. There remains some uncertainty regarding
precipitation chances further north and east due to lingering dry
air in the lower levels, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out.
Look for temperatures to remain cooler than normal due to
extensive cloud cover and showers. Highs will generally be near
the upper 70s to near 80F. Highs may be slightly cooler than
currently forecasted depending on cloud cover.

Chances for showers taper off late today into the evening hours once
the aforementioned wave shifts east. Lingering low-level moisture
and light winds may promote fog development tonight.

Sunday through next week...

Model guidance depicts an amplified upper ridge centered near the
Rockies with northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes Region during
the latter half of the period. This should allow for shortwaves to
pass through the region late this weekend into next week. These
disturbances along with deeper moisture advecting into central
Indiana will return chances for convection to the forecast at times.
Weak surface high pressure and an EML advecting towards the region
within southwesterly should keep weather conditions mostly quiet
through much of the day Sunday.

By Sunday night into Monday, most guidance suggest storm clusters or
MCSs begin to develop within a very unstable environment across the
Great Lakes Region and propagating south or southeastward into the
Ohio Valley. Monday night currently looks to have the better chance
for impacts across central Indiana based on the current axis of the
ridge, but that looks to generally be more focused towards northeast
Indiana. That being said, there may be a southwestward trend in
where the storm complexes may impact as the global models often pin
the initiation point too far north and don`t track the progression
along the theta-e gradient as well as some of the higher resolution
models.

Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence regarding exact
details during this period, but strong instability and enhancement
of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwaves could support
the threat for severe weather. High DCAPE values aided by steep
lapse rates and the expected linear storm mode favors primarily a
damaging wind gust threat. PWAT values around 2.00 inches along
with warm rain processes may also result in localized flooding.

Warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned disturbances should
warm temperatures well into the 80s to lower 90s Sunday through
Tuesday. Dewpoints returning to the low-mid 70s will likely lead to
peak heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees on Monday. Some
uncertainty remains though as convection or convective cloud debris
could limit diurnal heating.

Following the cold frontal passage early Tuesday, drier continental
air will briefly build into the Great Lakes, pushing the primary
thunderstorm boundary south toward the Ohio River. High temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will hover in the upper 80s with reduced
dewpoints. However, global ensembles agree on sub-tropical ridge
amplification over the Ohio Valley by Thursday and Friday. 500 MB
heights rising above 590dm, combined with strong solar insolation
and evapotranspiration, will drive maximum temperatures into the mid-
90s with heat index values approaching triple digits by the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible later after 14Z today

- Isolated showers are possible between 14-20Z today, primarily near
  KHUF/KBMG

- Fog development expected tonight

Discussion:

Low-mid clouds will continue to build in this morning with an
approaching disturbance from the west. MVFR ceilings appear
increasingly likely at many of the TAF sites later this morning and
into the afternoon before improving later in the evening. Isolated
showers are possible between 14-20Z today, primarily near KHUF/KBMG.
Winds will remain light out of the south or southwest through the
period. Fog development also appears increasingly likely tonight
into Sunday morning with low-level moisture in place and light winds.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...White/Melo