804
FXUS63 KIND 201032
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today and tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies

- Milder through the remainder of the forecast period, particularly
  late in the weekend into next week; dry save for a slight chance
  of showers Saturday afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Early This Morning...

Stratus continues to move south into central Indiana as cooler air
aloft moves into the area. A little drier air is moving into the
area at the surface, with dewpoints in the middle 60s entering from
the north.

Satellite shows that the stratus is filling in to the north of the
area, and this will spread south as well. There are some notable
holes in the west, so this area may take longer to fill in.

Today...

An inversion will help keep the stratus in place this morning, so
will keep skies mostly cloudy for much of the area. There is some
uncertainty on how well the western forecast area will fill in, so
those areas may be partly cloudy.

Flow will become less cyclonic this afternoon. The inversion will
lift, and the stratus will become a cumulus field during the
afternoon. This will allow skies to become partly cloudy
across the entire area.

Clouds and cooler air moving in will keep temperatures cooler than
recent days. Will cut guidance a bit given the expected cloud cover
and go with highs in the upper 70s northeast to middle 80s southwest.

Tonight...

Cumulus will dissipate some this evening, but more stratus may move
in overnight from the northeast. Will have partly cloudy skies over
a good part of the area.

Temperatures will be cooler thanks to cold advection, with lows
around 60 north to the middle 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The breadth of the upper ridge that has kept the area frequently hot
and humid in recent days will decrease as the ridge becomes more
compact and centered over the Four Corners region this week.

Surface high pressure will be well on its way into settling into the
region by daybreak Thursday, with northerly surface flow allowing a
return to drier weather and temperatures nearer to seasonal normals
through the remainder of the week, with highs around 80 to the mid
80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dewpoints will remain
seasonably humid in the 60s, though significantly more comfortable
than the recent low to mid 70s dewpoints.

Another boundary appears poised to push through the region sometime
Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler
air as a large upper low drops into the Great Lakes. NBM keeps a dry
forecast at this time, likely due to questions with respect to
moisture availability as a preceding surface high will help to
deplete moisture aloft. That said, forecast soundings do show a bit
of available instability, so will add a slight chance of showers
Saturday afternoon, primarily north.

In the wake of this second boundary, a refreshing change is likely,
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80, lows in the 50s to near 60,
with even a few nights in the upper 40s possible in some areas, and
dewpoints much lower in the upper 40s to mid 50s, making for a very
pleasant final week of climatological summer.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings this morning, become VFR early this afternoon
- Some wind gusts between 15 and 20kt possible this afternoon
- Potential for more MVFR ceilings late tonight

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will continue to expand and eventually fill in to KHUF
early in the period. These will gradually lift into a cumulus field
and become VFR early this afternoon.

Clouds will likely scatter out at most sites by evening, but more
clouds may arrive from the east overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50