366
FXUS63 KIND 171736
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1236 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and sunny today with rain moving in after midnight tonight
  through Tuesday

- Lower chances for rain midweek with chances increasing
  again Thursday into the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A dry and seasonable forecast is on track for today across Central
Indiana. Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies overhead, but
higher clouds to the northwest will push in later this afternoon and
evening ahead of the next incoming system. High pressure is
currently overhead keeping conditions dry and winds much lighter
than they were over the past 24 hours. Local soundings reveal a very
stable atmospheric profile from the surface up to 700mb with a low
level nocturnal inversion still present. Due to such stable
conditions, mixing heights this afternoon should be fairly shallow,
preventing higher gusts from mixing down to the surface and keeping
high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Overall, no concerns or
hazards expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today.

Temperatures continue to slowly drop across central Indiana with
most sites now in the low to mid 30s as light winds and dry surface
air allow for efficient radiational cooling. Continue to track a
dissipating area of mid and high level clouds across Illinois that
are now beginning to enter the northwestern counties, but with the
aforementioned dry air near the surface and aloft, coverage
continues to decrease as these clouds move southeast.

Dry and quiet weather is expected for today with winds shifting from
the west to south towards the evening hours ahead of the arrival of
precipitation after midnight tonight. This southerly shift will
gradually allow for some dew point recovery, but expect much of the
rise to not begin until near precipitation onset.

With weaker near surface winds, don`t expect the same extent of
moisture mixing out today, but with the very dry antecedent
conditions, minimum RH values will fall back into the 25 to 35
percent range.

Tonight.

An upper level trough is then expected to move across Nebraska into
Iowa during the overnight hours tonight with broad isentropic lift
out ahead of the system which will bring rain as early as midnight
to the far western counties but expect the majority of the
precipitation to fall during the dawn to morning hours Tuesday.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm tonight with cooler air
aloft allowing for some elevated instability, but generally expect
the precipitation to remain on the lighter end with only a few
rumbles. Total QPF tonight should be around a tenth of an inch to up
to a quarter inch in isolated spots.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

The long term will start off with a short wave moving through the
area, bringing rain for much of the day Tuesday. Despite this being
a relatively near-term system, there remains uncertainty between
models with the main uncertainty being the amount and coverage of
rain expected. At this time, widespread likely PoPs are in play for
the first part of the day Tuesday followed by a potential dry slot
arriving over the northern portion of the forecast area during the
latter part of the day. Given this, higher QPF is expected across
south-central Indiana with less than half an inch more likely across
the northern half. Rain will then come to an end from NW to SE
Tuesday night and brief ridging Wednesday bringing dry weather.

Another, potentially stronger, shortwave expected for the end of the
week will provide additional rain chances from Thursday into the
start of the weekend. On the leading edge, WAA from SW flow will
also bring above normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

Both of these system will have enough instability to produce chances
for embedded thunderstorms at times, with best chances across the
southern portion of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Impacts:

- Rain moving in after 06Z tonight, little to no vsby restrictions
- Sct thunderstorms possible at KBMG after 15z tomorrow

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06z tonight at all
sites as high pressure slowly shifts eastward today. Light to calm
winds this afternoon become easterly around and under 5 kts this
evening through late tonight. As the low pressure area near through
South Central Indiana late morning Tuesday, expect winds to become
southeasterly (120-150 deg) around 8-12 kts.

Low level dry air should keep cigs at VFR levels through the night
despite rain arrive after 06z. Cigs slowly lower during the early
morning hours and may briefly become MVFR under a heavier shower or
thunderstorm. There are some indications that cigs lower to MVFR
levels toward the end of the current TAF period and into Tuesday
evening, will monitor this and add it to later forecast issuances as
confidence increases.

The thunderstorm threat should be confined to South Central Indiana
and points southward, with KBMG on the northern edge of the threat.
Best chance for a thunderstorm will be after 14z and into the
afternoon hours. Vis and cigs may briefly drop to MVFR to IFR levels
during heaviest showers or storms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...CM