956
FXUS63 KIND 010214
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with some thunderstorms overnight

- Rain chances will persist through the weekend. Flash flooding
concerns can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon to evening

- Additional rain chances possible at times next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The area of light rain from the initial round of lift has weakened
and mostly moved off to the east of central Indiana. A few lingering
scattered showers remain across the area this evening.

However, regional radar shows convection back across western
Illinois into Missouri, moving east. This is associated with the
upper and surface lows farther west. Forcing from the system will
move east and bring the convection into central Indiana later
tonight.

The stronger convection across Missouri will push southeast into
better instability and not impact the area. Overall instability will
increase a bit as the system gets closer, but it will remain
limited. Thus, severe storms are not expected overnight. Brief heavy
rain will remain a threat though.

Given the above, have lowered PoPs as needed the next couple of
hours, then allowed them to return to at least likely category as
the next round of forcing moves in. Removed thunder mention until
later in the night.

Lowered hourly temperature forecasts based on latest trends in
observations, but forecast low temperatures look good.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Rain showers are on the doorstep of central Indiana as a low
pressure system makes its way into the region. The low is expected
to slowly track eastward through the weekend, providing shower and
some embedded thunderstorms from this afternoon and throughout the
weekend.

While CAMs are not greatly reflective of the ongoing precipitation,
at least in terms of timing and location, it does continue to show
that this initial round of rain is likely to diminish as it moves
into the forecast area. As the atmosphere continues to moisten from
the southerly flow, additional rounds of rain will continue to form
over the area late this evening to overnight and continuing into the
day Sunday. Saturday afternoon looks to have the best chance of
flash flooding concerns with PWATs near 2" and isolated convection
dumping heavy rain at times so take precautions if out driving. For
total weekend rain totals, widespread amounts of 1-2, maybe up to 3
inches is expected but locally higher amounts are also probable.
Where the locally higher amounts end up is the question and will
depend on the speed at which the low progresses, the exact track it
takes, and any mesoscale forcing that is struggling to be resolved
in models. Highest totals will typically be found in the comma head
of the low, which at this time looks to most likely be in the NW
portion of the forecast area and areas north of there.

In addition to flooding, there is an isolated chance of severe
weather for Saturday afternoon and potentially into the evening
hours. Damaging winds is the main threat but can`t completely rule
out some rotation happening, either in the form of cold air funnels
or maybe an isolated tornado due to the slow moving surface low
overhead.

Going into the new week, more uncertainty arises as the global
models disagree on how far to the east the low and the upper
troughing system will reach thanks largely to a Bermuda high in
place over the Atlantic. There are times when the low could regress
back towards central Indiana bringing additional chances for rain
next week. Eventually it is expected to get absorbed into the larger
troughing pattern to the north and push through New England. Given
these unknowns, low confidence in PoPs for next week as well as
temperatures. Keeping with guidance which has at least slight to
chance PoPs each day, particularly during the afternoon hours and
highs generally in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR developing toward 12Z with variable
  ceilings likely by Saturday afternoon

- Periods of SHRA at times through the period, with scattered
  TSRA mainly Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

Initial area of light rain will exit early in the period with
scattered showers lingering into the early overnight. More numerous
showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms will move in after 07Z or
so and continue past 12Z. Another relative lull is expected mid to
late morning Saturday before numerous showers and scattered storms
redevelop.

Widespread MVFR ceilings will develop toward 12Z and persist
Saturday morning. IFR cannot be ruled out. Saturday afternoon will
see ceilings vary from low MVFR to low VFR before worsening again
late afternoon into evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...KF