161
FXUS63 KIND 232323
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
723 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sprinkle possible late this afternoon and evening.

- Turning even cooler and less humid on Sunday.

- Temperatures near to below normal throughout the next week with
little to no chance for rain until the end of the month.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front stretching from
NW Indiana to Central IL...sagging slowly southward. High pressure
was found over the deep south. This placed central Indiana still
within the warm sector ahead of the cold front with westerly lower
level flow. GOES16 shows a thin band of clouds near the cold front,
stretching across the northwest half of Indiana. Radar shows the
earlier, thin, showers have dissipated near the front. Dew Point
temps were in the 60s.

Tonight and Sunday...

Models show that northwest flow aloft has begun in earnest this
afternoon. Strong subsidence has developed in the wake of the front
over WI and NRN IL as seen on water vapor. This along with the
strong high pressure in the wake of the front will build across
Central Indiana for late this evening, overnight and into Sunday.

Forecast soundings tonight fail to show deep saturation, instead
showing only some lower level CU saturation as the cold front
passes. HRRR is trying to develop a few showers late this afternoon
and evening near the front, but confidence for this remains low due
to the dry column and any pops are too low to be worthy of a mention.
Thus just a few passing clouds this afternoon and evening, but a
sprinkle cannot be ruled out. Clearing and subsidence along with
cooler temperatures will begin to arrive amid cold air advection.

On Sunday, forecast soundings once again show a dry start to the day
with some developing CU in the afternoon. Thus mostly sunny should
work here. Cool air in place will allow high to only reach the
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Dry and cool weather is expected next week with low humidity.

Monday through Saturday...

The upper pattern will be dominated by a deep upper low that will be
anchored near Hudson Bay. This deep low will provide cyclonic upper
flow from the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and then to most of
the east coast and and eastern Canada. Strong ridging will be in
place over the Rockies. This will place Indiana in a
favorable position for subsidence and cooler northwest flow.

The strong subsidence associated with this feature will allow the
development of several areas of passing high pressure, with cool
Canadian air, to push through Indiana next week. Models do suggest a
few short waves within the flow aloft to rotate around the low and
pass, but these features will have no moisture to work with as the
dry and cool continental air continues to flow across Indiana.

850mb temps through Wednesday will fall to the 6-8C range, before
some warm air advection arrives in the second half of the work week.
Look for highs in the lower to middle 70s during the first half of
the week with highs in the upper 70s in the latter half.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Impacts:

- SCT Showers with brief VIS reductions through 01Z at KLAF
- Gusts to 18kt tomorrow afternoon

Discussion:

High pressure will depart this evening as a cold front over MI and
IL pushes across the TAF sites. The front will be accompanied by
BKN040 clouds through the evening, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms primarily only impacting KLAF.

Strong and cooler high pressure will build across Central Indiana in
the wake of the front. This will result in continued VFR conditions
overnight and into Sunday. The greater amounts of dry air should
allow for substantial mixing tomorrow afternoon, with occasional
gusts to 18kts from 16-23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Updike