022
FXUS63 KIND 061511
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1011 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal, especially
  Thursday and Friday

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Friday night...potential for
  widespread moderate rainfall totals

- Seasonably chilly weather returns this weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Minor adjustments made to going forecast this morning. Measurable
PoPs seemed unlikely given the shallowing of the moisture in the
stratus layer, and while even drizzle seems a little less likely,
there is enough of an area of very weak radar echoes and minor
visibility reductions to justify another few hours with a patchy
drizzle mention, primarily across the northeast.

Temperature trends and latest hourly numerical guidance suggest
that, despite extensive stratus, highs in the north needed nudged up
a couple of degrees - not to mention the impact of any possible
holes in the cloud cover, which cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
Decent southwesterly breezes are promoting at least modest mixing
and weak warm advection even with the cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Early this morning, surface low pressure was moving into northern
Illinois, with a developing warm front across central Indiana. Some
clouds around 5000FT were developing, but lower stratus had yet to
develop. Radar showed some light echoes with some of these clouds.

The surface low will move northeast into Lower Michigan this
afternoon. South to southwesterly winds will continue to pump low
level moisture into the area in the warm sector of the system. The
bulk of the forcing with the system will remain north of central
Indiana, closer to the surface low and an accompanying upper trough.
However, there will be some weak forcing mainly confined to the low
levels.

This forcing should help produce the stratus as well as some patchy
light sprinkles/drizzle this morning. An isolated shower is
possible, mainly northeast closer to the better overall forcing.
Will continue to mention some patchy drizzle and light rain this
morning.

Forcing will exit the area this afternoon as the surface cold front
moves through. Questions still remain on how long the stratus will
remain behind the front, as is typical this time of year. The area
that looks to have the odds of partial clearing is the southern
forecast area, with lower odds north. Will trend pessimistic with
sky cover, especially north.

High temperatures will be tricky, at least partially depending on
how much sunshine appears. Readings are already around 50 in
portions of the western forecast area. Will go closer to the warm
blended guidance in the south but trim a bit across portions of the
north given the expected cloud cover.

High pressure will build in tonight and will likely trap some clouds
as it moves in. Will go partly to mostly cloudy, with lows in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Wednesday through Saturday...

Weaker gradients to start the long term period as broad 1016 mb high
pressure over most of the CONUS` eastern half drifts up the TN
Valley Wednesday...promoting light southwesterly breezes and
decreasing clouds that will allow a more pleasant day where
temperatures peak near the low 50s for most locations.  Surface low
pressure will gradually expand east across the Plains late Wednesday
and Wednesday night...while subtropical cut-off short wave lifts
from northern Baja to Texas Panhandle...resulting in cyclogenesis of
996 mb low from central Plains to Chicagoland Thursday into Thursday
night.

Southerly surface flow will increase Thursday, boosting local
dewpoints from the 30s into the 50s...and increasing chances and
coverage of rain showers, especially along the Wabash Valley where
precipitable water values will occasionally reach around 1.30
inches.  Gusts to likely peak Thursday night around 20-30 mph as the
system`s axis of deep moisture likely shifts east to southeast of
the CWA.  At best moderate confidence here with timing/location of
any additional, possibly more-steady rainfall, given run-to-run
model inconsistency.  Nevertheless the potential for overall
widespread 0.50 to 1.00 rainfall totals are possible by early
Friday, with perhaps locally heavier amounts in any isolated
downpours towards the Ohio Valley. Any organized thunderstorms
should stay south of central Indiana where more consistent deep
moisture is more likely to meet better wind shear.

Disturbed pattern to continue through the late week with very broad
and deep H500 trough occupying nearly all of the US, with a
wavelength too broad to allow much eastward progression.  Frontal
zone to likely, slowly, cross region around the Friday timeframe...
supporting an overall high-POP, low-rainfall set-up.  Next surface
low along the boundary may actually track across Indiana, but low
certainty in adequate forcing into the Saturday timeframe...which
would favor drizzle and a few showers opposed to thunder or any
noteworthy additional precipitation amounts.

Unseasonably mild conditions likely Thursday into at least Friday
morning with highs in the 50s to around 60F both days for most
locations...and frankly somewhat humid conditions likely holding
overnight readings around 50F for Thursday night. Transition back to
winter most likely around the Saturday timeframe as broad trough`s
lower mid-level heights cross the Midwest.  Rain likely will mix
with wet snow and change to at least flurries around the mid-
weekend...with the extent of any light accumulations dependent on
intensity/proximity of embedded upper level vorts and wind direction
coming off southern Lake Michigan.

Sunday and Monday...

Reasonably temperate conditions expected on the backside of the
slowly-departing system through the latter half of the weekend,
courtesy of the arriving surface high pressure`s Pacific maritime
origins.  Lower confidence regarding coverage/intensity of any
lingering flurries/snow showers Sunday given considerable model
divergence.  Better certainty regarding dry and probably slightly
above normal readings to start the next work week as 1000-500 mb
thicknesses rebound to perhaps 545 dm amid switch back to overall
retracted, zonal upper pattern. The normal max/min at Indianapolis
through the long term is 36/21.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions for some sites through much of the period
- IFR possible this morning
- Some gusts to over 20kt possible today

Discussion:

A warm front has passed, and low level clouds have developed at most
sites. Ceilings will continue to lower, but confidence in widespread
IFR at the northern sites has lowered. Will include a TEMPO group
for IFR this morning.

Some improvement will occur this afternoon, especially at the
southern sites. VFR may eventually return to the southern sites,
but the northern sites will likely see MVFR prevail into the
night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50