419
FXUS63 KIND 110947
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
547 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry for much of the day today

- Scattered showers and storms return late today through Saturday

- Progressively warmer temperatures late weekend into the first half
  of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The front that brought the showers on Thursday is now south of
the Ohio River and will wash out today. Remnant moisture associated
with the front will interact with a weak upper low to produce
additional chances for rain across the Ohio Valley late today into
Saturday.

Upper ridging will expand north into the region late weekend into
early next week with warmer temperatures returning through the
middle of next week. A cold front will become nearly stationary
across the lower Great Lakes next week before gradually sliding into
the Ohio Valley during the second half of next week with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Today through Saturday Night

Skies continue to clear slowly from the north early this morning as
high pressure resides over the Great Lakes. The cold front from
Thursday has now shifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys
with convection south of the Ohio River. 06Z temperatures ranged
from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

Much of the day will be dry as the region sits under the influence
of the aforementioned high pressure to the north. The deeper
moisture associated with the front remains in relatively close
proximity to the south and this will keep clouds in greater
abundance across the southern half of the forecast area today. As
the boundary washes out and a weak upper low develops over the
Ozarks...the moisture axis will be drawn back north into the
southern part of the forecast area late day as the high shifts east
into New England. Instability is weak but cannot entirely rule out a
few showers or rumbles of thunder developing across the lower Wabash
Valley east into far southern portions of central Indiana into this
evening prior to the loss of heating.

The upper low will weaken into an open wave as it pivots to the
northeast into the Ohio Valley overnight. Expect an increase in
coverage in showers during the predawn hours focused particularly
over the southeast half of the forecast area. The wave aloft will
drift east across the area on Saturday with scattered showers and
storms in a moist and unstable airmass. The upper wave axis and
deeper moisture plume will shift east of the region by late day with
a downtick in convective coverage from the west as the afternoon
progresses. Weak surface ridging builds in Saturday night with dry
yet muggy conditions.

Temps...a cooler easterly flow combined with broader coverage of
clouds should keep highs generally in the lower 80s today. Despite
the potential for scattered convection Saturday...southerly flow
reestablishing will enable afternoon highs to recover into the mid
and upper 80s with warmest temperatures in the Wabash Valley.

Sunday through Thursday

Upper ridging centered over the southern Plains will expand
northeast into the region Sunday into early next week with a
transition back to a hotter and more humid airmass over central
Indiana for the first half of next week. Highs will likely warm back
into the lower and possibly mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday as the
upper ridge centers over the Tennessee Valley. With a cold front
stalled to the north over the Great Lakes...convective risks are
minimal through Wednesday...isolated and diurnally driven at best.

The eastward progression of a stronger upper level wave diving out
of the Pacific northwest is likely to be the catalyst that will
finally suppress the upper ridge over the eastern part of the
country and enable the cold front to shift south into the forecast
area. Trends within the model suite however now suggest that will
not take place until the second half of the next week with chances
for showers and thunderstorms focusing on Thursday and Friday next
week with temperatures cooling back to near seasonal levels by the
end of next week.

This will also now delay the arrival of our first taste of an early
Fall airmass as the cold front departs to the southeast...with
cooler than normal temperatures holding off until later next weekend
into the early part of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers possible late tonight, mainly at KBMG and KIND
- Patchy fog possible at KLAF predawn Saturday

Discussion:

Clouds persisted south of Interstate 70 with mainly clear skies
further north early this morning. Clouds will linger throughout the
day with additional cu development for the afternoon...especially
along and south of Interstate 70 in closer proximity to an axis of
moisture leftover from a diminishing boundary over the lower Ohio
Valley.

As high pressure over the Great Lakes departs off to the east late
far today...deeper moisture will begin to move back towards the
area as an upper low develops over Missouri. Not out of the
question for isolated convection to develop and move into the
southwest half of central Indiana this evening but confidence too
low to mention in the forecast at this time. The arrival of the
upper low into the area predawn Saturday will bring a more
organized chance for showers in the predawn hours...focused
especially at KBMG and KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan