958
FXUS63 KIND 031042
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
642 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions this weekend with highs in the upper 70s
  and lower 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s

- Smoke aloft will keep skies hazy at times today

- Daily chances for afternoon showers/storms beginning Monday

- Temperatures trending back to normal by mid-week with warmer than
  normal conditions for the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Another pleasant day in the forecast for all of Central Indiana as
high pressure remains in place over the Great Lakes region.
Satellite imagery early this morning shows mainly clear skies across
the state with no rain or storms anywhere nearby. The rest of the
day features very similar to conditions the past several days with
the same airmass kept in place by drier northeasterly winds around
the area of high pressure. ACARs sounding yesterday afternoon
indicated deep mixing up to 2km agl, just below the mid level
subsidence inversion, allowing a few higher gusts to mix down to the
surface. The same set up is forecast for today; with sporadic gusts
over 15 mph at times during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
may be a degree or two warmer than the previous few days with urban
areas and South Central Indiana making a run for 80 degrees this
afternoon. Deeper mixing and NE flow will also keep dew
points/humidity levels relatively low for this time of year, making
it feel more like September than mid-Summer. Skies may appear hazy
at times as Canadian wildfire smoke remains overhead, but do not
expect impacts at the surface.

The overall weather pattern begins to shift toward a more typical
pattern for early August going into the beginning of next week.
While dry weather is forecast to continue tonight and for much of
the day tomorrow, there are subtle signs on the horizon of changes
to come. An inverted surface trough over the Gulf Coast pushes
northward while upper troughing begins digging over the Mid
Mississippi River Valley, allowing better moisture return northward
into Indiana. Expect slowly rising humidity values tonight into
tomorrow as dew points get over the 60 degree mark once
again...still not near the oppressive values last week. Expect
increasing clouds from both the west and south later tonight as the
two aforementioned systems develop and push closer to the state.
Increasing humidity and clouds should also result in warmer
overnight lows later tonight in the low to mid 60s, rather than 50s
like the past several nights. Due to a deep dry airmass in place, it
will take time to saturated the atmosphere enough to support any
convective activity locally, so keeping the forecast dry through at
least Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Monday Through Wednesday.

The cooler and less humid pattern will begin to shift Monday as the
surface flow gains a more southerly component which will bring
slight warmer temperatures and an increase in the surface dew
points. There could be a few showers/storms on Monday across the
southwestern counties where a gradually dissipating upper level
disturbance will be moving in from the Gulf states. This residual
low pressure system will then sit overhead through the middle of the
week bringing daily chances for convection, mainly across the
southwestern counties as the upper level flow remains fairly
stagnant with broad ridging to the west.

Thursday Through Saturday.

The pattern gradually begins to shift Thursday into Friday as
stronger southerly surface flow returns. Temperatures will gradually
warm back to near normal with a return of mid 60 to near 70 degree
dew points by Thursday with continued low rain chances through
Friday with increasing daytime instability and weak northwesterly
flow aloft. Looking towards the weekend, there is increasing
confidence in a return to at least upper 80 degree temperatures with
a lower end threat of 90 along with dew points back into the low 70s
as the jet stream retreats northward leaving broad ridging across
the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Impacts:

- Elevated smoke continues at times, otherwise no aviation concerns

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
remains the predominant weather influence across Central Indiana.
Most aviation weather conditions will follow a typical diurnal
pattern over the next 24 to 36 hours at all sites. High pressure
remains over the Great Lakes with northeast flow through the state.
Light winds early this morning increase to 6 to 10 kts after 15z
with gusts to 15 kts at times. After sunset, winds follow the
diurnal trend of diminishing to less than 6 kts. A few cumulus are
possible during peak heating of the day with a few upper level
clouds passing by as well. Skies may appear hazy at times from
Canadian wildfire smoke in the upper levels, however this should not
impact surface visibility. Otherwise, no aviation concerns due to
weather.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM