818
FXUS63 KIND 120133
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
933 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Friday with highs predominantly in the 70s

- Rain chances for next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Most clouds across central Indiana have dissipated this evening, but
some clouds were lingering across the far southern area near the old
boundary. Temperatures were cooling quickly with the clear skies.

Clouds across the far southern forecast area will eventually
dissipate or move south this evening, leaving clear skies across the
area. Winds will not go completely calm tonight, so radiational
cooling will be tempered a bit. Ongoing forecast low temperatures
represented this well, so only made a few tweaks mainly for favored
cold areas.

Some recovery in dewpoints is occurring in the north, and lingering
higher dewpoints will remain across the far south. These areas are
most likely to see some patchy ground fog overnight, but it is
possible most areas. Kept a mention in the forecast for the most
likely areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Remnant frontal boundary washing out near the Ohio River this
afternoon with a diminishing band of clouds trailing it. Sct cu has
developed over the northern half of the forecast area but doing
little to deter sunshine. Fantastic Fall Saturday ongoing with 18Z
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Surface ridging will reestablish tonight and Sunday as the upper
ridge expands east into the region with dry weather continuing.
Deeper subsidence over the upper Midwest will advect southeast into
central Indiana through this evening with the diurnal cu field
gradually eroding from the north prior to and through sunset. Clear
skies expected overnight with light northeast winds should set the
stage for near ideal radiational cooling conditions. Cannot rule out
the development of shallow ground fog predawn Sunday through sunrise
although the presence of dry air and broad subsidence should limit
coverage to patchy at best with river valleys and low lying areas
being particularly susceptible.

Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise and set the stage for a
pleasant Sunday. Diurnal cu will largely be mitigated with continued
subsidence and dry air through the column. Light and variable flow
will become predominantly easterly as the day progresses.

Temps...lows will fall towards the cool end of the guidance envelope
with the dry airmass and clear skies. Expect low to mid 40s over
much of the forecast area. Low level thermals support highs in the
low to mid 70s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Dry and quiet weather will continue through much of the upcoming
week with broad ridging aloft and at the surface. Skies will be
mostly clear through much of the period with the bulk of any
increased cloud cover largely confined to Tuesday and Wednesday as a
weakening frontal boundary drifts into the lower Great Lakes before
retreating back to the north. It is not entirely out of the question
that the boundary will get close enough to generates few light
showers over northern portions of the forecast area but the lack of
significant moisture pooling ahead of the front will serve as a
significant deterrent to any raindrops.

Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout the
extended. Have continued recent trends of nudging highs and lows to
the farther ends of the guidance envelope considering the ongoing
drought and dry ground conditions. Highs will remain above normal
through next weekend. Upper level heights across the forecast area
will be maximized early next week with the warmest highs expected
Monday and Tuesday in the mid and upper 70s...possibly approaching
80 across the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will range form the mid 40s
to mid 50s through midweek.

Heights aloft will buckle slightly by late in the week in response
to an upper low diving into New England. This will bring subtly
cooler air into the region courtesy of easterly flow while forcing a
retrograde to the ridge back into the Mississippi Valley. Temps will
cool slightly for the second half of the upcoming week in response
before warming again by Saturday as the ridge shifts back east and
strong southerly flow develops across the Ohio Valley.

The increase in southerly flow will be in response to a developing
surface wave over the Plains that will intensify as it lifts
northeast into the Great Lakes by next Sunday. This system is likely
to bring the best chance for widespread rain and storms over the
next 7 to 10 days while also bring gusty gradient winds and a more
substantial cooldown  early the week of October 20.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Impacts:

- Ground fog possible at all but KIND around 12Z

Discussion:

Cumulus will dissipate early leaving clear skies into Sunday
morning. A few cumulus may pop again on Sunday afternoon.

Clear skies and light winds will allow some patchy ground fog to
form at all but KIND near sunrise. Drier air working in may help to
counteract this threat, but since fog is already mentioned, will
keep it in the TAFs at most sites. At KIND, east/northeast component
of the wind should help keep fog at bay.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50