109
FXUS63 KIND 310806
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy today. Warm. Light rain showers possible.

- Cloudy and colder tonight.

- Above average highs mostly in the 40s and 50s into next week.

- Dry conditions expected this weekend through midweek with more
rain possible for the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Synopsis:

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place over
northern MO.  This was resulting in easterly lower level flow across
Indiana. GOES16 shows a better story with a deep plume of tropical
moisture streaming northward from TX to Indiana and OH. This was
resulting in a steady area of of showers that were lingering across
TN and KY. This plume was making slow but steady progress eastward,
but for the most part was staying out of Central Indiana. Water
vapor also shows an upper low over OK, and this feature was
associated with the surface low over MO. Skies across Central
Indiana remained cloudy with low cloud decks along with drizzle and
very light rain in the area. Forecast soundings show saturated lower
levels within an inversion and a bit of a dry layer aloft. The low
clouds and very light precipitation was leading to low visibility
also.

Today  -

Early this morning visibility across the northwest parts of the area
had a few locations falling to one-quarter of a mile. Should these
trends continue a dense fog advisory may be needed. Any Dense fog
should improve by late morning as winds increase.

Model suggest the surface low will push across Indiana today along
with the upper low as it becomes more of an upper trough. The stream
of tropical moisture providing more widespread rainfall is expected
to drift east of Indiana early this morning, limiting our rainfall
amounts. Forecast soundings and time heights through the day show a
steep inversion in place within the lower levels while dry air and
subsidence appear in place aloft, as the dry slot from the upper low
works across Central Indiana. This will lead to trapped lower level
moisture and subsidence aloft may result in a few very light showers
or drizzle. HRRR suggests some spotty, very light showers across the
area through the day, thus the need for pops will still be required
albeit any precipitation amounts will be low.  Winds remain veering
toward southwesterly and then westerly through the day. Although
heating will be limited due to cloud cover temperatures should be
able to rise to the upper 40s and low 50s.

Tonight -

The upper trough will clear Indiana this evening leading to a more
zonal flow in place aloft. Little in the way of forcing dynamics
appear to pass within this flow overnight. Within the lower levels a
strong area of surface high pressure in the wake of the low will
build across upper Midwest, Great lakes and Plains. This will allow
for a more northerly flow to tonight along with some cold air
advection.  Looking at forecast soundings, lower level moisture
trapped beneath the steep inversion never dissipates through the
night. Thus a cloudy night will be in store. Look for lows in the
upper 20s and low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected
throughout much of the long term period. Zonal flow will dominate
aloft through around Tuesday which will help to keep colder
temperatures to the north. A few days are even expected to see highs
in the 50s to near 60. While dry weather is largely expected, can`t
completely rule out the chance for light precip at times on Sunday,
but a lack of lift and moisture over central Indiana suggest dry
conditions will be more likely. Precipitation looks more likely for
areas closer to the low passing through Canada and should stay north
of our area.

Then models generally all show a troughing system for mid to late
next week, although the degree of the troughing varies widely at
this time. The late week system will be accompanied with frontal
boundaries over the area, lifting Gulf moisture and providing
chances of precipitation for Wednesday through at least Friday. Once
the cold front with this system passes through, temperatures are
expected to drop back to near normal for the end of the week and
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Impacts:

- Poor flying conditions for much of the period with IFR or worse
through late afternoon.

- Very low cigs and low visibilities expected overnight.

Discussion:

Steady rain remains south of the TAF sites in southern Indiana.
Models suggest this precip should remain south of the TAF sites
overnight, but a brief shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out. Thus
have used VCSH to account for this.

An upper trough will push across the TAF sites on Friday as low
pressure passes to the north. Forecast soundings continue to show
saturated lower levels. This suggests continued IFR conditions with
chances for some improvement late to MVFR. HRRR suggests a few
spotty showers across the area on Friday afternoon as the upper
trough passes. Again, due to low confidence in coverage and specific
timing, a period of VCSH was used.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma