867
FXUS63 KIND 190635
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected at times today

- Isolated severe storms with damaging winds possible, mainly
  this afternoon. Heavy rain is also possible.

- Very warm to hot and humid conditions will continue today

- Dry and less hot from mid week onward, with much milder and less
  humid conditions late this weekend into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Early This Morning...

Mainly cirrus from convection to the west and north of central
Indiana was across the area at 06Z. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms were back across central Illinois, ahead of a
surface cold front.

The convection across central Illinois will continue to propagate
east and northeast. Some instability extends into the western
forecast area this morning but then drops off farther east. Will
have to watch because earlier convection dissipated before reaching
the area, but believe that this convection will make it given better
organization than the previous.

Will thus have PoPs increase during the predawn hours. May have to
have some likely PoPs closer to 12Z in the far northwest, with
chance PoPs across much of the remainder of the northwest forecast
area.

Instability and shear are such that severe storms are not expected.

Today...

The early morning convection will push east and south early in the
Today period, but it should weaken diurnally during the morning.
Will have some high chance to likely category PoPs in the northwest
early, with chance PoPs farther east, gradually diminishing with
time during the morning.

This convection will likely leave an outflow boundary across central
portions of the area. This will enhance the cold front as it pushes
south across the area.

Clouds will thin into early afternoon, allowing instability to
build, especially across the southern half of the area. Moisture
looks decent, especially at the surface with 70s dewpoints. The
surface front will have some support from an upper trough.

Based on the expected location of the front/old outflow and the
expected instability, will go with some likely PoPs across a good
portion of the southern half of the area, with lower PoPs to the
northwest behind the front`s expected location.

Shear values increase a bit this afternoon but still aren`t
impressive. However, this plus the expected instability will be
enough for the potential for some isolated severe storms with
damaging winds.

High temperatures will depend some on cloud cover. However, feel
that highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common over much of
the area.

Tonight...

The front will continue to move south during the night, so will keep
some chance PoPs south and slight chance PoPs farther north this
evening. PoPs will end by the overnight for most areas.

Cooler air will work in behind the front, with lows in the middle to
upper 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The breadth of the upper ridge that has kept the area frequently hot
and humid in recent days will decrease as the ridge becomes more
compact and centered over the Four Corners region this week.

A cold front will be well south of the area by daybreak Wednesday,
with northerly surface flow allowing a return to drier weather and
temperatures nearer to seasonal normals through the remainder of the
week, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Dewpoints will remain seasonably humid in the 60s, though
significantly more comfortable than the recent low to mid 70s
dewpoints.

Another boundary appears poised to push through the region Saturday
into Saturday night, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air as a
large upper low drops into the Great Lakes. NBM keeps a dry forecast
at this time, likely due to questions with respect to moisture
availability as a preceding surface high will help to deplete
moisture aloft. That said, this boundary will likely require at
least a slight chance at some point early in the weekend, though
given the model spread and uncertainty will stick with the dry
forecast for now.

In the wake of this second boundary, a refreshing change is likely,
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80, lows in the 50s to near 60,
and dewpoints much lower in the 50s, making for a very pleasant
final week of climatological summer.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Impacts:

- Fog at times predawn at KBMG and potentially at KHUF
- Convection chances at KLAF this morning
- Convection chances elsewhere this afternoon
- Wind shift to NW during the day

Discussion:

Convection is having a hard time making it to KLAF at the moment,
but some could make it there later in the predawn hours. Will use a
PROB30 for TSRA for this potential. Remnants of this may get close
to KIND so kept the VCSH there.

Additional convection is expected to develop along a cold front
moving through this afternoon. Will use PROB30s for this potential.
MVFR and worse possible in convection.

A wind shift will occur with the front as it moves north to south
during the day. Outside of fog and convection VFR conditions are
expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50