257
FXUS63 KIND 152303
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions expected through the end of the week,
  isolated showers and storms possible Thursday afternoon

- Peak heat indices around to slightly above 100 degrees each
  afternoon through Saturday

- Greater chance for showers and storms Friday through the first
  half of the weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue to promote
mostly quiet weather. The stagnant suppressed airmass will also keep
hot-humid conditions in place with poor air quality across portions
of central Indiana. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for
north/northeast portions of central Indiana, including the
Indianapolis metro, through 8PM EDT today. Another heat advisory is
in effect from noon through 8PM Thursday.

Isolated convection appears possible Thursday afternoon or evening
as the upper ridge gradually breaks down. Latest CAMs generally
depict convection developing after 2PM due to the weakening large
scale subsidence above the stagnant hot-humid airmass. Low POPs were
added to the forecast for this reason.

Friday through Saturday night...

A more active pattern is expected with multiple disturbances moving
through the region. The first disturbance will move in on Friday
supporting higher rain chances. Modest ascent from the mid-upper
level feature combined with daytime heating of a hot-humid airmass
will promote numerous showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon
hours. Additional scattered convection can be expected late Saturday
as another shortwave and associated cold front push through.

Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the approaching cold
front late Saturday along with modest enhancement of mid-upper level
flow could support a few severe thunderstorms, primarily across
northern portions of central Indiana. Forecast soundings depict up
to 25 kt of effective shear, strong destabilization with steep low-
level lapse rates, and DCAPE values as high as 1200 to 1400 J/KG.
These parameters suggest the potential for loosely-organized storms
capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Isolated severe
hail cannot be ruled out, but relatively weak deep-layer shear
should limit the threat. Efficient rainfall rates from warm rain
processes could also result in localized flooding during the period.

Sunday into next week...

Long range guidance generally depicts upper ridging and weak surface
high pressure building in Sunday. This will provide mostly quiet
weather conditions until another shortwave approaches late Monday
into Tuesday morning. Exact details remain uncertain due to
diverging model solutions. It is worth noting guidance suggest more
significant cold air advection with this disturbance which favors a
cooler and drier pattern towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Impacts:

- Pockets of IFR VIS at KLAF/KHUF/KBMG between 07-12Z

Discussion:

Outside of MVFR and worse fog at all but KIND overnight/near
sunrise, VFR conditions are expected.

Current scattered cumulus will dissipate early, leaving behind
elevated smoke and some high clouds. Expect fog to develop again
overnight then mix out by 12Z. Scattered cumulus will pop up again
Thursday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon,
especially near the southern sites. At the moment coverage is
expected to be too low to mention.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-029>031-
036>042-046>049.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-029>031-
036>042-045>049.

&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Melo