644
FXUS63 KIND 231801
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
201 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler weather through Friday with warmer temperatures
  returning this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms and heat returns next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over the southern Great Lakes, stretching from Lake Erie to Northern
IL. GOES19 shows diurnal CU across central Indiana. Light E-SE
surface flow was in place across our forecast area. Aloft, water
vapor shows strong ridging over the western CONUS resulting in NW
flow from the Canadian plains spilling into the Ohio Valley. Strong
subsidence was shown across Indiana and Ohio. Dew point temperatures
were in the comfortable upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tonight through Saturday...

Diurnal CU across the area this evening is expected to diminish as
heating is lost, leading to clear skies overnight. Clear skies
overnight along with light winds and dew points in the 50s will lead
to another cool night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Overnight convection is expected upstream over the plains states.
Models suggest CI blowoff from this to arrive across Central Indiana
on Friday. Forecast soundings suggest high saturation through the
day indicative of this. This will lead to another partly cloudy day
with slightly warmer temperatures.

Overall, the persistent northwest flow aloft will remain on Friday
and Saturday due to the strong upper ridging over the western CONUS.
Forecast soundings suggest some lower level saturation on Saturday
as some upper forcing is expected to pass, but confidence is low in
these features at this point as Indiana will still be under the
influence of the surface high well to the east. For now, We will
keep pops out of the forecast for Saturday, but we will expect more
clouds on both Friday and Saturday due to these signals. Of note,
warmer and more humid air will arrive by Saturday as winds become
more southerly and dew points are suggested to rise into the 60s.

Sunday through Thursday...

Warm summer weather with near normal temperatures and daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

Models suggest ongoing NW flow aloft across Central Indiana during
this period due to a well established ridge that will be set up over
western CONUS. Models differ a bit in handling placement and
existence of embedded short waves that look to pass through Indiana
or points east within that flow aloft. This will keep rain chances
confidence low. However, several factors will remain favorable for
diurnal convection also.

While one models remains unorganized within the lower levels, others
suggest a cold front pushing across Central Indiana on Tuesday
attached to a low pressure system moving through the eastern Great
Lakes. Furthermore forecast soundings suggest a warm and humid
column in place each of these days with high CAPE values present and
dew points returning the upper 60s and 70s. A cap looks to be
present most days, however this does not appear to be insurmountable.

Thus overall, confidence remains low until more of a unified signal
appears, but enough is present to include storm chances. Should the
potential stronger organization come into play, severe storms cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Impacts:

- None; VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will dominate the
weather across the TAF sites during this period. The high will drift
to the eastern Great Lakes by Friday, but all of this will just
result in VFR conditions.

Diurnal VFR CU will dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.
Some high CI is expected to arrive on Friday due to blow off
convection upstream. Forecast soundings show this saturation aloft
on Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma