260
FXUS63 KIND 231653
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1153 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady warming early this week, with highs near or above 50 most
  areas Monday - Wednesday

- Breezy conditions Monday afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph possible

- A low chance for rain Monday night with slightly more substantial
  chances Wednesday and Wednesday night

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Much of the forecast has remained similar to previous issuances. The
main area of focus for changes is over NW portions of central
Indiana (Lafayette, Crawfordsville, Kokomo, Delphi). In this area,
trends have shifted towards greater PBL height and mixing this
afternoon. This would act to both increase frequency of gusts in
this area, and also likely boost temperatures by a couple degrees
this afternoon.

Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, highs in the low 40s, and
occasional gusts to 20MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Quiet weather will persist across central Indiana throughout the
short term period.

An upper level wave will move through the Great Lakes today. Some
isentropic lift will occur with this wave, which will bring some mid
clouds to mainly northern portions of the forecast area today. Some
high clouds will also be around at times. Will go with partly to
mostly sunny conditions.

Warm advection with the upper system as well as on the west side of
high pressure will bring temperatures into the lower 40s for much of
the area, which is about normal for this time in February.

High and some mid clouds will increase again tonight ahead of the
next system. This will lead to partly cloudy skies. Continued
southwest winds will help keep temperatures warmer than previous
nights, with lows around 30 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early in the extended.
The main focus will be on the quick rebound in temperatures aided by
low-level warm air advection. Look for temperatures to warm well
into the 50s early to middle of next week. Some locations across the
south could even reach the 60F mark both Tuesday and Wednesday.
These abnormally warm temperatures are going to feel quite nice
after the cold stretch this past week. While quiet weather can be
expected during the day Monday, breezy conditions are likely as a
strong LLJ pushes across the region, especially late in the day.

A mid-upper level wave will move through Monday night promoting a
chance for rain, but a southern stream trough preventing gulf
moisture from returning northward should greatly limit rain chances.
There are still a few models supporting the potential for light
precipitation. The potential is rather low though slight POPs still
remain in the forecast as increasing large scale and isentropic
ascent could help squeeze out any available moisture.

Another upper wave with slightly deeper moisture is expected to
track through the area midweek bringing a better shot for
precipitation. More available moisture combined with stronger
overall forcing supports higher POPs compared to the system earlier
in the week. However, gulf moisture may still remain mostly locked
to the south limiting QPF amounts. Look for the disturbance to shift
east on Thursday with surface high pressure building in. This will
allow for dry conditions to return. Temperatures are also likely to
trend cooler due to cold air advection behind the departing system,
but will still be near or slightly warmer than normal.

Latest guidance suggest quiet weather conditions continue into the
weekend. There is a non-zero chance for very light precipitation
with a few passing waves. However, most guidance shows forcing and
sufficient moisture remaining north of central Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1151 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Impacts:

- Gusts at KLAF and KIND this afternoon

Discussion:

Quiet conditions will persist across the sites through the period.
Mainly some passing high and mid clouds are expected at times.

Winds will generally be southwest to south, with speeds around
10kt this afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20kts are expected at
KIND and KLAF. Winds should wane overnight, becoming sustained out
of the south between 4-7kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Updike