774
FXUS63 KIND 141404
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions are anticipated for much of the upcoming
  week

- Dry fuels and low RH values each afternoon Monday through Thursday
  may lead to elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit
  overall concerns

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Forecast is in good shape this morning. Showers have exited the
area, and clouds had decreased some across the eastern forecast
area.

The old boundary remains at the surface and aloft across the
western and southwestern forecast area, but the difference today is
that there is no isentropic lift with it or an upper wave to
interact with it.

An upper ridge will build in today, and developing easterly flow
will push the boundary west. With no forcing with the boundary
today, convection isn`t expected as it moves west.

Clouds across the far southeast forecast area will mix out this
morning, and then some scattered cumulus will pop up. Temperatures
look reasonable, but will have to keep an eye on the southwest
forecast area. If the boundary is slower than expected, temperatures
there could get a little warmer than forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Convection continues to regenerate in the vicinity of a remnant
boundary extending south from just E/SE of the Indy metro along I-65
to near Louisville. Pockets of stratocu lingered further north from
the convection into SW lower Michigan with mainly clear skies to the
west. Temperatures were in the 60s at 06Z.

A wave aloft riding down the eastern flank of the ridge centered
over the Mississippi Valley in tandem with a weak surface low and
the aforementioned boundary have contributed to the convection
Saturday and lingering early this morning. The surface low will
drift south and weaken further today with surface ridging expanding
from the northeast by tonight. Heights aloft will rise through the
course of the day as well as the upper level ridge builds into the
region. This will result in a resumption of the warm and dry
conditions for today and set the table for another extended stretch
of dry weather lasting all the way into next weekend.

The ongoing convection will gradually shift south over the next
several hours and should be clear of the forecast area by daybreak
or shortly after. Have already seen radar rainfall estimates
approaching 2 inches since late last evening in the vicinity of
Seymour and will need to monitor for any increased flooding
potential over the next few hours. The antecedent dry conditions of
the last few weeks has mitigated the flood risk significantly but
any further training of the ongoing storms in Jackson and Jennings
Cos could cause brief localized high water in spots over the next
few hours.

The other near term focus in addition to the storms is the potential
for patchy fog to develop through daybreak with a particular concern
in areas that have received rainfall over the last 18 hours or so.
The other part of the forecast area that received higher rainfall
totals on Saturday was across the northern Wabash Valley and with
mainly clear skies there already and the expectation of winds
diminishing to near calm levels...expect some localized fog
formation through daybreak.

Any fog across the forecast area will diminish quickly after sunrise
with a trend towards increasing sunshine and a gradual advection of
drier air through the day as the surface ridge from the northeast
expands towards the region. Lingering stratocu over the eastern half
of the forecast area this morning should largely dissipate by midday
or transition to a scattered diurnal cu field for the afternoon.
Skies will fully clear tonight as ridging at the surface and aloft
become the primary features influencing weather over the Ohio Valley.

Temps...low level thermals support highs rising into the mid and
upper 80s for much of the forecast area today. Once again the
warmest air will be found in the lower Wabash Valley in closest
proximity to the expanding upper level ridge. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

An upper level ridge will keep very warm to hot conditions as well
as dry weather across central Indiana into at least mid-week. The
ridge will stick around due to being blocked by low pressure system
models show sticking close to the Carolinas for the first part of
the period. The subsidence from the ridge will help to keep the area
dry all the while short waves riding around the ridge could bring
precipitation off to the west of the area.

Most areas will still have a relatively dry ground, and the
atmosphere will remain dry as well. The combination of the previous
should allow temperatures to get into the upper 80s to lower 90s
for much of the week.

Once the aforementioned Carolina system moves off to the NE midweek,
our high pressure will be able to move on as well. In it`s place, a
low pressure system will enter form the Plains. Temperatures will
then start to trend cooler and reach nearer to normal for the area
by the end of the period. This low will also bring a decent shot at
multiple days of rain chances this weekend and possibly beyond.
Models do still vary in their solutions, particularly with timing,
so uncertainty remains with any details.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

The back edge of the scattered convection is in southern Indiana and
continuing to move away to the south. Lingering pockets of stratocu
and mid level clouds across the eastern half of the forecast area
will diminish later this morning. Cannot rule out a brief drop in
visibility at KLAF but so far fog has not been an impact at the
terminals.

Low level flow will revert to easterly throughout the day enabling
drier air to advect into the region from the eastern Great Lakes.
Scattered diurnal cu is expected during the afternoon but otherwise
expecting mostly sunny skies for much of the day. Skies will clear
this evening with light winds.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Ryan