917
FXUS63 KIND 050610
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
210 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will continue through next week

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend

- Early next week will return to seasonable temperatures, but warmer
  air will return later in the week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Today...

Isentropic lift aloft in some weak warm advection is generating some
mid-level cloud across Illinois, which is then drifting into central
Indiana early this morning.

This setup will continue into the early daylight hours this morning,
then the lift will weaken and shift north as a warm front moves
north through Illinois into northern Indiana. The lower part of the
atmosphere will remain dry, and the forcing with the mid-level
moisture won`t be enough to produce any sprinkles/showers.

Will go with partly cloudy conditions this morning, becoming sunny
this afternoon as the clouds mix out.

Winds will become southeast to south as the warm front moves north,
with perhaps a few gusts near 20 mph north. With sunshine this
afternoon and warmer air moving in, highs will top out in the upper
70s to middle 80s.

Tonight...

An upper trough will move into the western Great Lakes while a
surface cold front approaches central Indiana from the west. A
tightening surface pressure gradient will keep winds up during the
night.

The system will have little moisture this far south, so only
expecting some scattered clouds to move in overnight ahead of the
front.

The winds will help keep temperatures warmer tonight, with lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s common.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Sunday...

The cold front will move across central Indiana on Sunday. Moisture
will be quite limited this far south, with the better moisture near
the upper trough that will be moving through the Great Lakes. Thus,
only expect some scattered to briefly broken clouds with the front
as it moves through.

Winds will be gusty with the front, with gusts to around 25mph
likely. The beginnings of cold advection will battle sunshine during
Sunday afternoon, but still believe temperatures will still peak in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Monday and beyond...

Northwest flow aloft will bring more seasonable temperatures to the
area through mid-week. Surface high pressure will keep the area dry
as well.

Questions arise though on how temperatures will moderate into late
week. The upper ridge across the western USA will try and flex east
closer to central Indiana during this time frame. Uncertainty
remains on exactly how well it will be able to do this. The more it
expands east, the warmer temperatures could get.

Given this uncertainty, will stick with blended guidance which
brings upper 70s back to parts of the area by Friday. Surface high
pressure will continue to keep the area dry.

The long dry period may lead to worsening drought conditions once
again.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Frequent ceilings
of BKN080-BKN120 will continue into mid-morning before mixing out.

Winds will become southeast early in the daylight hours then
increase to around 10kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50