164
FXUS63 KIND 110804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Cloudy today with wind gusts around 25 mph.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday through the weekend, with
occasional rain chances Saturday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

GOES19 shows mostly clear skies across Central Indiana early this
morning. Lake cloud was streaming across NE Indiana into western OH.
Abundant mid level cloud was found over IA MO and MN. These were
associated with an upper short wave near the Dakotas. Otherwise,
strong NW flow was in place aloft as seen on Water Vapor. A deep
upper low was found over NY and PA, keeping cyclonic flow in place
across the east coast. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high
pressure was in place over the deep south, with a ridge axis that
extended north into the Ohio valley and across Indiana. A weak
trough was found over the high plains, but precipitation was not
occurring with that. Thus the main weather feature impacting central
Indiana at the moment was the surface ridge of high pressure and the
associated clear skies.

Today...

Quiet weather is expected today, with passing clouds. Models show
the NW flow aloft persisting, allowing the previously mentioned
short wave to push across Indiana. This will allow the associated
clouds as seen on GOES19 to push across Indiana, resulting in partly
sunny skies through the day. Forecast soundings are on board with
this showing saturation aloft, but plentiful dry air within the
lower levels will keep the weather dry.

Warm air advection is in play today as the core of the cold air from
the previous system finally begins to exit to the east. 850MB temps
are expected to rise to around 0C by the end of the day. Furthermore,
southerly winds will arrive as the surface ridge axis slides east of
Indiana. This will allow for the melting of any snow and
temperatures should recover into the middle 40s for highs.

Tonight...

Models show the weak, dry trough pushing across Indiana tonight as
stronger high pressure remains anchored over Florida. Aloft, the
northwest flow on the lee side of ridging over the Rockies continues
to stream across Indiana, with little to no forcing available and
subsidence remains in play. Forecast soundings through the night
show a top down drying through the night. Thus we will expect mostly
clear skies with lows in the middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing upper-level ridging
building throughout the remainder of the week. Continued warm air
advection is expected after a brief, slightly breezy, cold front on
Wednesday. By Saturday, highs could even reach the mid 60s to low
70s.

The next chance of rain comes this weekend, ahead of a troughing
system moving through the northern half of the continent and
associated surface front. Rain could arrive as early as Saturday
night but best chances appear to be for Sunday. Behind the front,
temperatures are forecasted to drop back to near normal with highs
in the mid 50s. Models are showing brief ridging behind the front
but should be quickly followed by another low approaching at the end
of the period, out of the desert SW. This will bring additional rain
chances for early to mid next week but exact timing is yet to be
clear so will keep with guidance that has PoPs each day to end the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1107 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure and
surface ridging moving across Indiana will keep skies clear
overnight. A passing upper level weather disturbance along with the
beginning of warm air advection will result some passing high mid
level clouds through the day on Tuesday. Forecast soundings show dry
air within the lower levels through the period.

Thus VFR will continue through the period with just some passing mid
clouds. A moderate pressure gradient across the area area will allow
for wind gusts to around 20 knts during the day on Tuesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma