645
FXUS63 KIND 061841
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
141 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70

- Another round of rain and thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday
  with an additional one quarter to three quarters of an inch
  possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight and Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Record warmth continues across central Indiana this afternoon, with
Indy having already broke the record high for the date. Developing
clouds will help keep a lid on temperatures from getting too much
higher across much of the area.

With dewpoints in the lower 60s, some instability has developed
across the area. However, some weak inhibition remains. Can`t rule
out some isolated showers or storms popping up this afternoon, but
odds are low given lack of forcing. Will keep some slight chance
PoPs going.

The continued lack of forcing should keep the evening quiet, but
again an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out. Feel odds are
low enough though to go dry this evening.

Weakening convection from the west, ahead of an approaching cold
front, will move in late tonight and will continue to push east
across central Indiana Saturday morning. There will be plentiful
moisture to work with, and some forcing will continue through the
period. Another line of convection may develop in the afternoon
with the continued forcing with the cold front.

Will go with high PoPs all areas at some point late tonight through
the day Saturday. The timing of the morning convection is such that
instability will be limited, so odds of severe are low but non-zero.
Clouds will help keep instability in check later Saturday, but an
isolated strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out then either.

A few showers and isolated storms may linger in the southeast
Saturday evening, then dry conditions are expected overnight.

Rainfall amounts up to around 0.75 inches are possible, with the
higher amounts expected across the central and southern portions of
the area.

Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to around 70, but readings
may fall some mid afternoon as colder air works in behind a cold
front. Lows tonight will be very warm and in the lower 60s. However,
a record high minimum for March 7 is not expected as readings will
cool off Saturday evening before midnight, heading to lows around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Quiet weather will return for Sunday through the daytime Monday with
upper flow becoming nearly zonal and central Indiana in between
systems. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs returning
to near record levels in the lower 70s by Monday.

A northern stream upper trough and southern stream upper low will
work together to bring forcing to the area for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Ensembles still show strong integrated vapor transport
into the area, so locally heavy rain will remain a threat.
Unfortunately, the southern half of the forecast area looks to
receive the highest rain amounts. This could create new flooding and
prolong ongoing flooding.

Instability and shear may be enough for a low end severe threat
during this period as well, but threat will depend on details that
are not clear this far out.

Temperatures will cool behind the system but still remain near
normal to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR ceilings possible early

- Wind gusts up to 25kt this afternoon and Saturday afternoon

- Showers arriving towards daybreak Saturday with periodic MVFR
  ceilings through the day Saturday

Discussion:

Scattered to perhaps broken cumulus will continue this afternoon
with a moist lower level atmosphere in place. Mixing should help
reduce coverage during the afternoon. Early on, brief MVFR ceilings
are possible out of these.

Scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will move
in toward 12Z Saturday and then continue at times as a couple of
lines of convection move through during the day. MVFR ceilings are
possible in these.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50