995
FXUS63 KIND 021327
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
927 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions this weekend with highs in the upper 70s and
lows in the 50s

- Smoke aloft will keep skies hazy at times through Sunday

- Scattered diurnal threats for rain and storms return Monday and
  persist through late next week

- Temperatures will return to seasonal levels next week with the
  possibility of a hotter and more humid airmass by late next week
  into next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A denser area of cirrus continued to move across the region this
morning. Combined with the ongoing haze aloft from the Canadian
wildfire smoke...this was limiting sunshine somewhat so far. 13Z
temperatures were generally in the low and mid 60s.

The cirrus is associated with a weak wave aloft drifting through the
area. By this afternoon as subsidence increases within the column
and the wave shifts east...expect brightening skies with just a few
cu during peak heating. The hazy skies will persist but overall
smoke density aloft is lower today than Friday.

Low level thermals support highs in the mid and upper 70s for most
of the forecast area. Northeast winds of 10-15mph is expected again
this afternoon with a sporadic higher gust as well. Zone and grid
updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Did you enjoy yesterday`s weather? Today is shaping up to be another
warm and dry day across Central Indiana as high pressure settles
into the region. Satellite imagery early this morning shows partly
to mostly clear skies overhead with a few high level clouds pushing
in from the west. Short term guidance keeps these higher clouds
around through at least the first half of the day as a weak upper
level wave passes by. In addition to a few clouds, the sky may
appear hazy at times from Canadian wildfire smoke overhead. The
early August sun is still strong enough for ample surface heating
despite clouds and haze with temperatures once again rising into the
mid to upper 70s. Northeasterly winds are working to keep this
relatively cooler airmass in place, while advecting in much drier
air as well. Dew points will be nearly 20 degrees lower than they
were a few days ago, remaining quite comfortable for this time of
year in the 50s. Northeast winds increase this afternoon as low
level mixing increases under a mid level inversion. Expect afternoon
wind gusts of 15-20 mph, diminishing around and after sunset.

Good conditions for radiational cooling tonight will result in
temperatures into the mid 50s to low 60s across the region, with the
coolest areas across North Central Indiana.

As of August 1st, Indianapolis has had 51 consecutive days with low
temperatures at or above 60 degrees... 4th longest streak of 60+
degrees since records began at Indianapolis International Airport in
1943. While the urban heat island may keep many parts of the city in
the lower 60s, those further away from city limits have a better
chance at seeing cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Sunday Through Monday.

Quiet and cooler than normal weather will continue to dominate the
second half of the weekend with broad surface high pressure across
the Great Lakes region. The HRRR smoke model continues to show smoke
aloft through the day Sunday, so plan to continue to limit sky cover
to no lower than 30 percent. Little to no surface impacts expected
with the majority of the smoke expected to stay aloft. Model
soundings show deep mixing into very dry air aloft which will allow
for dew points to end up on the lower end of model guidance with mid-
afternoon dew points in low to mid 50s with occasional wind gusts of
up to 15 mph.

Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to near 60. The pattern will begin
to shift Monday as the surface flow gains a more southerly
component which will bring slight warmer temperatures and an
increase in the surface dew points. There could be a few
showers/storms on Monday as the surface moisture begins to increase,
but with no strong source of lift, any convection would likely be
diurnally driven.

Tuesday Through Friday.

Rain chances gradually begin to increase Tuesday as the ridge to the
west begins to sharpen and a weak trough tries to develop across the
Mississippi Valley. Weak winds aloft and only marginal forcing will
limit the coverage of showers Tuesday but there is increasing
confidence in at least a few showers/storms across the western
counties. Similar conditions are expected for Wednesday before the
pattern gradually begins to shift late week as stronger southerly
surface flow returns. Temperatures will gradually warm back to near
normal with a return of mid 60 to near 70 degree dew points by
Thursday with continued low rain chances through Friday with
increasing daytime instability and weak northwesterly flow aloft.
Looking towards the weekend, there is a potential return in hot and
humid conditions with increasing probabilities in daytime highs back
into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Impacts:

- Wind gusts of 15-20kt range possible again this afternoon
- Brief upper level haze possible from Canadian wildfire smoke

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the weekend at all TAF sites across
Central Indiana. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes is the
dominant weather influence locally, keeping surface conditions
relatively benign. Satellite imagery does show a weak upper level
system pushing west to east overhead... producing a broken deck
above 20,000 ft agl. These clouds will continue through the first
half of the day before clearing. Expect another day with a diurnal
wind trend with light northeasterly flow this morning and gusts
within the 15-20 kt range 15z-00z due to low level mixing. A few
afternoon cumulus are possible, with cigs remaining VFR. Upper level
haze is possible from Canadian Wildfire smoke and is not expected to
impact surface visibility.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM