202
FXUS63 KIND 071056
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
556 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers possible this morning, clearing this afternoon.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph possible today.

- Much colder starting Sunday with chances for light precipitation
  late Saturday through Monday

- Lows in the 20s Sunday night and Monday night, with wind chills
  in the teens at times Sunday night into Monday night

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows a moderate trough
stretching from MN, across IA to Western MO. This was resulting warm
southwesterly flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows a stream of mid and
high clouds ahead of the trough pushing across IL and into Indiana.
Radar shows a line of showers ahead of the trough stretching from
eastern WI to northern and central IL.

Today...

Models shows a quick flow in place across the CONUS. The previously
mentioned upper trough will push toward Indiana today before exiting
tonight. Best forcing dynamics will pass ahead of the trough,
passing across Central Indiana during the course of the morning
hours. Forecast soundings at that time reveal some limited saturated
at that time. HRRR has trended to show scattered light showers
arriving early this morning across central Indiana before quickly
exiting around noon. Time heights show some lingering saturation in
the wake of the wave this afternoon, but subsidence appears to
return by 00Z. Thus will focus pops mainly during the morning hours
and trend toward a dry forecast by this afternoon. Some clouds may
linger through the afternoon. Overall, any precipitation will be
light and due to the expected scattered nature of the precipitation,
not everyone will receive rain. Expect highs in the middle 60s. The
moderate pressure gradient in place ahead of the surface trough may
result in in wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

Tonight...

Dry and slightly cooler weather will return tonight as an associated
weak cool front pushes across Indiana. Forecast soundings at this
time trend toward a dry column as weak ridging aloft along with
associated subsidence builds toward Indiana. Furthermore the surface
pressure gradient weakens overnight as weak high pressure builds
across the area. Thus a trend toward mostly clear skies and light
winds is expected. Look for lows to be slightly cooler, in the lower
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday through Monday night...

The long term will begin with a complex synoptic set-up including an
overall zonal upper flow over the Midwest and vicinity...bounded by
a short wave trough plunging slightly into the central Plains...and
a more impressive upstream cut-off trough over southern Hudson Bay
beginning to descend southward towards the CONUS along with an early
winter surface ridge over the Canadian High Plains.  The weekend
into early next week will see the Plains short wave induce surface
cyclogenesis that will cross the local region Saturday evening...
before the Hudson Bay trough plows southward into the Great Lakes/
Midwest Sunday-Monday, bringing much colder conditions and at least
flurries of snow to much of the central Indiana region.

This will all translate to a pleasant day Saturday as the
approaching developing surface low nudges its warm front eastward
into Indiana... allowing at least low 60s for most the area on light
westerly breezes under increasing clouds.  Similar to the short
term`s light rainfall event, the passing wave will bring at least a
few rain showers Saturday night with low confidence in any area
picking up more than 0.10 inches of precipitation.

Sunday will be the day of transition.  The departing/deepening low
will promote increasing/robust northwest breezes.  This will combine
with differential positive vorticity advection from the northern cut-
off`s approaching axis, to direct a fetch of lake-enhanced
convective precipitation from southern Lake Michigan into northern
Indiana and probably also several local counties, mainly east of the
I-65 corridor.  The Canadian surface ridge will simultaneously
expand through the Plains and also build eastward into the Midwest,
with highs around 40F leading to decreasing afternoon readings that
will fall rapidly after sundown.  Isolated to scattered showers are
expected to change from rain to all snow flurries during afternoon/
evening hours.

Sunday night through Monday night will bring the lowest readings,
with lows 20-25F both nights, and highs Monday most likely in the
mid to upper 30s.  Moderate to robust west-northwest flow will
occasionally gust up to 25-30 mph for many locations until the upper
trough`s core finally slides east into Ohio Monday afternoon.
Flurries will likely continue through much of day Monday, especially
from north-central to eastern zones, courtesy this upstream
forcing/lake fetch. Lower confidence surrounds coverage, intensity
and location of any better organized snow showers that may produce
isolated light accumulations.  This potential would be greatest near
and northeast of the Kokomo/Anderson/New Castle areas.  Any impacts
would likely be greatest from possibly icy surfaces Sunday
night/early Monday when temperatures fall 20 degrees to well below
freezing levels.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Winter type pattern featuring a stronger mid-latitude gradient from
southwestern Canada into the northeastern CONUS will oversee
lingering surface high pressure across the Deep South and broad but
less intense stacked low pressure slowly crossing the James Bay
area.  Robust southwesterly gusts Tuesday into Wednesday will lead a
moderation back to near normal temperatures by the end of the long
term. Clipper type ripple in the upper gradient should cross the CWA
and keep the upward temperature trend from exceeding the mainly 55-
60 degree range.  Generally moisture-starved column would prevent
any accompanying organized rain showers. The normal max/min at
Indianapolis through the long term is 54/36.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 556 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR Cigs possible today at LAF and IND, otherwise mainly VFR
conditions this TAF period.

- Light showers this morning, mainly at LAF and IND

- Gusty winds today of 20-30 knts

- Return to VFR at all locations by late afternoon.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows clouds associated with an advancing trough pushing
toward Indiana. Cigs were deteriorating toward low VFR conditions.

Radar shows an area of showers within the Wabash valley, poised to
quickly push across the Taf sites this morning, with best areal
coverage expected at LAF and IND. Precip should exit the state by
16Z as suggested by the HRRR. Thus have contained VCSH mention to
this time window. Some MVFR/low VFR cloud will linger this afternoon
win the wake of the precipitation.

A moderate pressure gradient will remain in place across the area
through the afternoon leading to wind gusts of 20-30 knts.

Winds will subside near and after 00Z as heating is lost and the
pressure gradient weakens.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Puma