764
FXUS63 KIND 060147
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
947 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms through this evening with coverage
  decreasing overnight

- Patchy dense fog possible late tonight

- Unsettled and stormy weather continues through the end of the week
  with additional chances for scattered showers and storms this
  weekend into early next week

- A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across south-
  central Indiana Friday or Saturday PM

- Seasonable temperatures late week through the middle of next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Latest observations show a nearly stationary front remains draped
across central Indiana from Terre Haute northeastward to Muncie with
scattered convective showers ongoing along and south of the
boundary. The 00Z ILN sounding and the recent IND ACARS soundings
show modest instability /MUCAPE 1500-2000 j/kg/ south of the
boundary with little to no convective inhibition. As a result
isolated TS will continue for the next few hours over southern
portions of the FA with the main limiting factor for larger coverage
being fairly weak large scale lift and lapse rates.

Further west, I have increased to low chance for precip over W/NW
portions central Indiana through 04Z as a weak mid level circulation
over Illinois moves east into this area the next few hours. Coverage
of showers will diminish overnight across the rest of the forecast
area as the aforementioned weak disturbance over Illinois moves east
of Indiana. Winds will be dropping to near calm late tonight which
combined with damp grounds from recent moderate to heavy rainfall
could bring some patchy fog to the area. Cloud cover will help to
limit the coverage of any dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Latest observations show a front remains draped across central
Indiana roughly from Terre Haute northeastward to Muncie with
scattered showers ongoing along or south of the boundary. Additional
showers and some thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next
few hours as further destabilization occurs south of the boundary.
Northwest portions are expected to remain dry as there is less
available moisture and negligible forcing north of the front. Weak
lapse rates and relatively long skinny CAPE profiles should limit
the potential for severe weather, but there may be just enough DCAPE
for an isolated stronger wind gust through the evening.

Coverage of showers and storms will diminish overnight as
differential heating across the frontal boundary lessens resulting
in weaker forcing. The front should also gradually push south
towards daybreak Friday. Winds will be dropping to near calm late
tonight which combined with damps grounds from recent rainfall could
bring some patchy dense fog to the area. Cloud cover will help to
limit the coverage of the densest fog, but winds becoming very light
favors fog development. Look for dewpoints to gradually fall through
the night as the front shifts south. This will help to slightly
cool overnight temperatures into the low to mid 60s.

Expect Friday to start off mostly quiet due to the frontal boundary
moving south of central Indiana. However, another disturbance will
likely move through late in the day with deeper moisture surging
back north slightly. An MCS is expected to develop west of the
region earlier in the day before propagating eastward. Models are
still struggling to agree on how the system will evolve.

Depending on where the system tracks locally heavy rainfall
should be the primary threat with a low chance for damaging wind
gusts. The best chance for rain is across south-central Indiana
closer to where the system will track. Also while the overall
severe threat appears low, some guidance suggest an MCV developing
from earlier day convection could potentially promote a more
favorable corridor for strong to severe storms. At this time, it
appears this would most likely occur south of central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue into the extended period as a
frontal boundary meanders over the region. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms will impact the Ohio Valley through early next week
due to disturbances tracking along the baroclinic zone. The greatest
threat is locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds of storms, but
there is also a low threat for strong to severe storms Saturday
across mainly south-central Indiana. Enhanced mid-level westerlies
from an approaching shortwave overspreading a modestly unstable
environment could support a few severe storms capable of producing
isolated damaging wind gusts.

Latest guidance still suggest some uncertainty in the overall
evolution of the approaching system Saturday. Deeper Gulf moisture
should be displaced south of central Indiana by early Saturday
before shifting back north into the evening as the upper wave and
associated weak surface low approach. Extended model guidance has
come into better agreement regarding the intensity of the upper
level wave and overall moisture return ahead of it. Latest runs
suggest increasing dynamics and deeper gulf moisture surging north
will likely promote precipitation, but discrepancies still limit
confidence in exact details such as rainfall amounts. Regardless,
expect the flooding threat to remain elevated as deeper moisture
returns north.

Sporadic precip chances persist Sunday through Monday with a deep
broad trough and embedded impulses moving through. A large area of
high pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley with dry and
seasonable conditions beginning Tuesday and continuing for much of
the rest of next week. A few ensemble members are hinting that there
could be just enough lingering low-level moisture to promote a few
showers Tuesday, but this appears unlikely. Expect moderating
temperatures during the middle to end of next week once upper
ridging shifts eastward.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Impacts:

-Isolated TS staying south of I-70 while diminishing this evening.

-Light showers across eastern terminals diminishing overnight.

-IFR cigs/vsbys later tonight into early Friday morning.

-More showers developing tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

A frontal boundary remains draped across central Indiana with
scattered showers ongoing along and south of the front. Isolated TS
will remain over areas south of I-70 before diminishing later this
evening. Activity remains isolated enough and moving away from KBMG
and KIND, that only carrying VCSH for both sites with conditions
ending from the west overnight. Precip is over for KBMG and KLAF.

MVFR cigs already at KLAF will spread southward through the evening
before widespread IFR ceilings develop at all terminals later
tonight. As temperatures slowly drop with recent rainfall, expect
areas of ifr visibility with patchy fog after 09Z. However
confidence of visbility less than 1sm is not particularly high.

Ceilings and visibility will improve to MVFR by mid morning. By
early afternoon, low clouds are expected to clear at most terminals
along and north of I-70. Another mid level system will approach the
terminals later tomorrow afternoon/evening with VCSH being carried
to account for increasing scattered showers. Instability appears to
be weak enough for limited to no TS threat.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Crosbie