263
FXUS63 KIND 020538
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
138 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear tonight; Cooler and less humid.

- Mostly Sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s on Wednesday.

- A much drier week ahead with a warming trend back to the low 90s
  by late week

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by
  Saturday night and Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

No changes needed to the forecast with conditions evolving as
expected. Wind speeds are gradually lowering as the boundary layer
decouples with the nocturnal inversion setting in. With dew points
in the low 60s, lows in the low to mid 60s look reasonable.  Winds
will drop to near calm towards daybreak tomorrow which combined with
the clear skies could bring some isolated non-dense fog along the
Wabash Valley but with the dry conditions today, moisture looks to
be insufficient for anything more than isolated valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over eastern KS. A cold front was now east of Central Indiana.
This was resulting in cooler and less humid NW flows building across
our area. Some CU have developed across central Indiana due to
diurnal heating. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows NW flow in place
across Indiana flowing from a ridge axis over the Rockies. Subsidence
was found over Central Indiana. Dew points have fallen to the lower
60s.

Tonight and Wednesday -

Dry and less humid weather is expected Tonight and on Wednesday. The
large surface high pressure to the east is expected to push eastward
to MO and Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon. This will keep light NW
winds across Indiana. Meanwhile aloft, northwest flow and lee side
subsidence will remain in place across Indiana. Forcing dynamics are
not expected. Thus a mostly clear night will be expected with lows
in the lower to mid 60s.

Forecast soundings on Wednesday suggest some afternoon diurnal CU
will be possible, resulting in partly cloudy skies. With westerly
winds and minimal temperature advection, highs once again will reach
the middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Medium range guidance is in general agreement that surface and upper
level ridging will gradually exert more influence with time the
remainder of this week, signaling a return to summertime heat and
humidity as the Independence Day holiday weekend approaches, though
not quite as oppressive as the prolonged heat experienced last week
(heat indices generally peaking in the mid 90s to near 100 as
opposed to 100-105).

This will allow for a mid to late week dry stretch, though
thunderstorm chances may begin creeping back into the vicinity
perhaps as soon as the holiday, though if there were any activity
late week, it would be largely diurnally-driven, very limited in
coverage, and primarily near peak heating into early evening as
higher humidity begins to advect back into the region on the
backside of the surface high.

As we get later in the weekend and into early next week, a bit of a
breaking and retrogression of the upper level ridge (though guidance
disagrees on the extent of this) looks to allow an upper level wave
and associated surface low/cold front to approach and impinge upon
the area, increasing chances for thunderstorms as these forcing
mechanisms are added to the mix, with activity a bit higher in
coverage and possibly organization, though the continued significant
poleward displacement of the prevailing belt of westerlies would
tend to limit organization except in the context of possible cold-
pool dominated QLCSs or convective clusters, as is often the case in
the depths of summer.

The warmest period of the long term looks to be the holiday weekend,
with some moderation possible late in the forecast period as the
front possibly impinges upon and perhaps passes through the area and
convective influence potentially helps to cool us off a bit.

...INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER SAFETY...

The Independence Day holiday is always a good time to review heat
and thunderstorm safety tips, as it is arguably the time of year
when the most people are outside and exposed to the elements coming
into the climatologically hottest and most convectively active time
of year.

When spending prolonged time outside during hot weather, take
frequent breaks, hydrate extremely well with non-caffeinated and non-
alcoholic fluids, and wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.
Wear sunscreen, seek out time in the shade, and keep a close eye on
those vulnerable to heat illness, which can develop extremely
rapidly.

When thunderstorms are nearby, there is no safe place outdoors - get
inside a sturdy structure as soon as possible. If you are close
enough to hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning, regardless of whether it is raining at your location or
not. Do not shelter under trees or in non-enclosed spaces like
garages, park pavilions, etc. Stay inside until well after
thunderstorms have passed and thunder can no longer be heard.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure will
be the dominant weather influence over the region. Satellite imagery
shows clear skies for all of Central Indiana early this morning,
with convection well upstream in the northern plains. High clouds
from these areas of storms work their way southeastward within the
upper jet into the region later today; however no aviation impacts
expected. Afternoon cumulus are likely to develop this afternoon
with cigs remaining VFR. No concerns for vis.

Calm winds this morning become westerly at or below 10 kts this
afternoon, diminishing after sunset again.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...CM