979
FXUS63 KIND 041804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm again on Sunday.

- Next best chance for rain is late Monday night through Tuesday
  night.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return for Wednesday
  through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Heating and some low to mid level moisture has led to a cumulus
field across central Indiana early this afternoon. There is some
weak mixed-layer CAPE across the northern forecast area, and
satellite shows some towering cumulus.

However, there is a weak inversion aloft which should help keep a
lid on things this afternoon. A rogue shower cannot be ruled out,
mainly north, but odds are too low to mention.

Otherwise, very warm conditions will continue with generally light
southwest winds.

Tonight...

The cumulus field will dissipate with loss of heating, leaving clear
to mostly clear skies. With light winds and mostly clear skies
expected, some ground fog may develop. Impact of this is not
expected to be enough to put in the forecast.

Lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday...

Influence from upper and surface highs will keep quiet weather
across central Indiana. Some cumulus may pop up again.

With no real change in airmass, will go a bit higher than guidance
and keep highs in the middle 80s most areas. At Indianapolis, the
record high for Sunday is 87, set in 2007.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday night through Tuesday night...

A weakening upper wave along with moisture from the Gulf will
approach the area Sunday night and then move in on Monday.
Forcing/moisture look to remain out of the area Sunday night, so
will keep a dry forecast then.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front will approach central Indiana Monday
and move in for Monday night into Tuesday.

Forcing should be low enough during the day Monday for only some
chance PoPs, with the highest PoPs in the afternoon when better
instability will exist. The relatively slow moving cold front will
interact with the Gulf moisture and should produce more widespread
rain Monday night into Tuesday. Will go likely or higher PoPs most
areas at some point during those periods.

However, will have to watch this because the NAM wants to keep the
slug of moisture farther south and east, which would lower PoPs over
central Indiana.

It will take another upper wave from the northwest moving through to
finally kick the surface front southeast of the area, so will keep
some PoPs going through Tuesday night.

Temperatures will remain warm on Monday and in the 80s. Exactly how
high they get will depend on the cloud cover from the southern
moisture. Tuesday will be cooler with the front and rain in the area.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Some brief upper ridging will build in by Thursday along with
surface high pressure. This will provide dry and much cooler
conditions to the area, with highs in the 60s and 70s and low in the
40s.

Questions remain on the strength and timing of an upper trough
around Friday along with the amount of moisture available to the
system. At the surface, a cold front will move into the area. For
now, will just keep some low PoPs around on Friday night with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, but ground fog
cannot be ruled out near sunrise at all but KIND.

Scattered to perhaps broken at times VFR cumulus will persist into
early evening before dissipating. Scattered cumulus may pop up again
on Sunday.

Ground fog may develop again 10-12Z Sunday at all but KIND, but
confidence is not high enough to include at this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50