790
FXUS63 KIND 182238
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
638 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the upper 80s to 90 again Thursday
- Humidity gradually increasing through the rest of the week
- Next chance of rain early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Tonight.

High clouds associated with the system that brought heavy rain to
the Carolinas earlier this week will continue gradually disperse and
move eastward through tonight.  Skies should be clear to mostly
clear by late tonight towards daybreak tomorrow. Temperatures should
be able to drop into the upper 50s to around 60 with the clear
skies, but as dew points continue to gradually rise, the coverage of
low to mid 50 temperatures will be minimal.

Thursday.

Another day of quiet and hot weather is expected for Thursday with
clear skies in the morning. RH values at the top of the boundary
layer will be a bit higher tomorrow with the more moist surface
conditions, but still should be low enough to limit the coverage of
diurnal cu.  Winds at the top of the boundary layer will be near
calm which will help to limit the mixing down of dew points, but
still should see low to mid 50s by mid to late afternoon which would
bring a return to 25 to 35 percent humidity.  Will continue to
monitor the potential for fires, but with calm winds the threat for
larger fires will be low.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thursday Night Through Saturday.

Dry and quiet weather is expected for the end of the work-week into
the early weekend with broad ridging expected across the Ohio
Valley.  A weak frontal system will approach Indiana late Friday
into Saturday but model soundings show extremely dry air through
much of the column ahead of the frontal arrival and with only weak
forcing and meager moisture, QPF looks minimal.  If any rain does
fall, it would be late Friday night across the northwestern
counties.

Dew points are expected to increase in the aftermath of the weak
front which combined with some cooler air working in aloft will
create some instability during the afternoon hours, but there will
be little to no forcing or lift by that time to do much more than
create a more robust cu field than has been seen in the last 10 days.

Sunday Through Wednesday.

Models begin to diverge Sunday into early next week but there is
an increasing threat for more widespread rain fall early next week
somewhere between Sunday and Tuesday as a much stronger upper
level low moves through Canada with a broad but seasonably strong
cold front passing through Indiana. Specifics on QPF remain highly
uncertain, but a higher end amount could be as high as an inch,
but amounts closer to a quarter inch seem at least probable at
this point. This system will bring a relief from the heat in
addition to the rain chances with expected highs back into the
upper 70s by Tuesday. Looking to Wednesday and beyond the pattern
favors continued cooler air with fairly good model agreement in
northerly surface flow and northwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Impacts:

- None.

 Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Mid cloud will dissipate this evening, but some high clouds will
move across overnight before exiting Thursday morning. Some
scattered cumulus may pop near KIND/KBMG Thursday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50