519
FXUS63 KIND 111857
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
257 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures expected throughout the week

- Showers and a few t-storms Tuesday night, gusty winds possible
  with these

- Warming trend this weekend and into next week, above normal
  temperatures likely

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes has provided clear skies
and relatively light breeze. A lake breeze off of Lake Michigan has
been working its way southward today with winds becoming northerly
behind it. Northerly winds continue through tonight before quickly
turning southerly Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching clipper
system.

The aforementioned clipper is associated with a potent vort max
embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft. Surface cyclogenesis
over southern central Canada will result in a ~1000mb low which will
dive southeastward into northern Michigan, where gradual
strengthening is modeled. Despite a relatively weak low, a decent
MSLP gradient is shown by most guidance over Indiana. Southwesterly
winds around 15kt gusting to 25-30kt is possible. Situations where a
clipper passes to our north with strong southwesterly flow tend to
bring temperatures warmer than guidance suggests. With clearing and
strong May sunshine, we`ve bumped high temperatures for tomorrow up
from the consensus and into the upper 70s to low 80s.

A cold front associated with the clipper is expected to arrive late
Tuesday evening with scattered showers. Guidance shows some weak
instability with a couple of hundred J/Kg CAPE at most. Therefore,
some thunder cannot be ruled out. Even though instability is meager
at best, model soundings show dry air below 700mb. Efficient
evaporational cooling could allow for some potent downdrafts within
any shower or storm. Additionally, a 30-40kt SW low-level jet will
precede the low, and some of this momentum may easily mix downward.
Therefore, a strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled out even
though the odds of thunder are low.

Once the clipper departs, surface high pressure builds back in on
Wednesday and is expected to persist through Friday. Pleasant
conditions with near-normal temperatures are expected to round out
the week.

By late Friday, and especially the weekend, southwesterly flow
returns as low pressure takes shape over the northern Plains.
Troughing aloft is likewise replaced by ridging. Ensemble guidance
is in good agreement showing above-average temperatures returning
this weekend and persisting into next week. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms may be possible at times as moisture returns
northward.
.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 25kt this afternoon
- Wind shift from WSW to NNW this afternoon
- WSW wind gusts 25-30kt on Tuesday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Winds out of the west-southwest today will become northerly by
tonight. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible at times, especially
when winds are out of the west-southwest.

Winds become southerly Tuesday morning, and west-southwesterly again
Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds are again possible with gusts between
25-30kt.

Some mid to high-level clouds are expected Tuesday evening as a cold
front approaches. This front will bring rain to all terminals
Tuesday night just after the end of the TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff