738
FXUS63 KIND 040439
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this holiday weekend with highs mainly in the lower
  90s

- Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
  Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No significant changes needed to the forecast this evening. The only
exception is that we added patchy fog for the Lafayette area, which
tends to be fog-prone and saw fog last night. Elsewhere, some patchy
fog may occur but should be a fairly low-probability event for any
one location.

Satellite shows some thin wildfire smoke passing through the state,
but should be too thin to be noticeable. Some storms over eastern
Iowa are sending debris cirrus our way which may lead to a thin SCT
to BKN layer at times. Winds are expected to go light/variable to
calm overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Partly cloudy and very warm conditions will continue this afternoon.
Can`t rule out a pop up shower or storm given existing instability
and perhaps some weak forcing north. Confidence is low though, with
the vast majority of forcing north of the area. Will continue to
mention an isolated shower or storm north for continuity.

Tonight...

Cumulus will dissipate, and some high clouds will move through at
times overnight. Localized fog is possible in favored areas, but
there won`t be enough to mention. Lows will be in the upper 60s.

Independence Day...

Upper heights will increase across the area, and high pressure will
remain in control at the surface. Mid level temperatures will warm.
The combination of these will prevent convection from forming, so
will continue with a dry forecast.

There will be some scattered cumulus along with some passing high
clouds, but these won`t stop temperatures from reaching the lower
90s most areas. Apparent temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.

Those with outdoor plans should prepare for the hot temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night through Saturday...

An upper high will be over the area for the first part of the
weekend, bringing hot conditions. Subsidence with this along with
warm mid level temperatures should inhibit any shower and
thunderstorm development.

Friday evening will be warm with temperatures in the 80s for much of
that time.

Hot temperatures will continue Saturday with highs in the lower 90s
expected.

Sunday into Monday...

A couple of upper waves will push a cold front through the area
during this time frame. Forcing doesn`t look to be strong, but
decent moisture will be available. Chance PoPs look best given the
expected forcing, with the highest PoPs expected on Monday.

Sunday will still see highs mostly in the 90s, but with clouds and
more coverage of rain on Monday, highs will be in the upper 80s most
areas.

Tuesday and beyond...

An upper high looks to be anchored across the southwestern USA for
much of next week, with northwest flow/upper troughing across
central Indiana.

This will allow upper impulses to bring forcing from time to time,
bringing daily PoPs to the area. PoPs look to remain in the slight
chance to chance category, given expected uncertainty in the
specific timing and strength of upper impulses.

Above normal temperatures mainly in the upper 80s will continue into
Tuesday, but readings closer to normal in the mid 80s could return
by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected much of the forecast period
- Brief fog near daybreak at the outlying terminals

Discussion:

Surface high pressure and an expanding ridge aloft will continue to
influence weather across the region with mainly clear skies and
light winds through Friday night. As with the previous few days...
expect scattered diurnal cu to develop for this afternoon then
diminish towards sunset.

Cannot rule out brief restrictions from fog at the outlying
terminals near daybreak.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Ryan