128
FXUS63 KIND 290623
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Saturday with seasonable temperatures

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday and persists through
  much of next week

- Isolated thunderstorms may return mid to late week next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place across NY and PA. Light SE flow was in place across Indiana,
under the influence of this high. Low pressure was found across SD,
and thunderstorms were found ahead of a cold front over the high
plains. Aloft, Ridging was found over the Central Plains states,
while a trough was found along the Appalachians. This was resulting
in NW flow across Indiana, and subsidence was shown exiting the
state. Some middle level moisture was shown arriving within the
Wabash valley.

Today and Tonight...

Models suggest the ridging over the plains will advance eastward,
reaching the Great Lakes late tonight. NW flow is expected to remain
in place today before shifting to the WNW tonight. Time heights and
forecast soundings continue to show plentiful dry air within the
lower and mid levels today and tonight. Models suggest that within
the lower levels our weather continues to be controlled by the
strong high pressure system to the east, with SE lower level flow
today becoming light and southerly tonight. Thus mostly sunny skies
will once again be expected today and mostly clear skies tonight.
Look for highs at or above persistence.

Sunday and Monday...

Ridging aloft over the Great Lakes on Sunday will shift to the
eastern Great Lakes and strengthen through Monday. This will shift
the steering flow aloft to westerly and allow any forcing dynamics
to push well north of Indiana. Strong upper level high pressure
looks to set up over the southern plains and the Tennessee Valley.
Within the lower levels strong high pressure settles east of the
Carolinas, allowing warm and humid gulf flow to develop. Strong warm
air advection will be in place on Sunday and Monday, leading to the
arrival of warmer and more humid air as 850mb temps begin to surge
toward 20C. This will result in highs into the 90s and heat as  we
end August, with mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.


Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry weather with continued heat is expected for the middle of next
week. Strong upper level high pressure in place over the Ohio and TN
River valleys will keep all forcing dynamics steered well north to
the Great Lakes. Meanwhile within the lower levels, Indiana will be
under the influence of high pressure centered off the Carolina
coast. This will continue to allow hot and humid southerly flow to
stream across Indiana. Forecast soundings on Tuesday suggest
unreachable convective temperatures. On Wednesday, forecast
soundings suggest slightly lower but still very high convective
temperatures, with ample CAPE aloft. A diurnal shower or storm seems
possible at this point, given the weaker cap. Highs in the middle
90s will be expected.

Thursday and Friday...

Models suggest strong ridging building aloft over the plains states.
This will result in NW upper flow across Indiana and the Ohio
valley. Some ridge riding forcing dynamics are suggested to spill
across Indiana on Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile within the
lower levels, a frontal boundary that was previously across the
Great Lakes is suggested to sag southward to Indiana and Ohio.
Forecast soundings still show strong capping on Thursday, but that
is suggested to weaken on Friday as possible forcing dynamics pass
with very high pwats again. Thus at this point, chances for showers
and storms on Thursday night and Friday are not out of the question.
Again, look for very warm highs in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR fog possible overnight; Otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows a few high and mid clouds over the Wabash valley early
this morning. Cigs will remain unlimited. Low dew point depressions
at the outlying areas may result in some patchy MVFR fog. Confidence
for this is low. Any fog will mix out in typical diurnal fashion
after daybreak.

Winds will become more southeasterly to southerly during the day on
Saturday, but remain below 10KT. A few cumulus along with high cloud
cover can be expected, all of which is ultimately VFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma