023
FXUS63 KIND 060122
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of showers/t-storms north of I-70 tonight

- Additional widespread showers and storms possible Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday night

- Very warm and humid starting Sunday, periods of showers/t-storms

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Clouds continued to stream across much of the northwest half of the
forecast area this evening. Wind gusts had begun to drop off in the
last hour as well. 01Z temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to
the lower 80s.

Earlier isolated showers over the lower Wabash Valley have
diminished and am largely expecting quiet weather for much of the
overnight now. Focus is over the Missouri Valley as convection is
beginning to develop along a remnant outflow boundary over southern
Iowa. Upscale growth will continue over the next few hours and
connect with ongoing storms across southeast Nebraska. Expect
further eastward expansion into northern Illinois through 06Z and
eventually into northern Indiana in the predawn hours. Convection
will carry an isolated damaging wind threat along with locally heavy
rainfall as it congeals late tonight then shifts southeast into far
northern portions of the forecast area near or just after daybreak
Saturday as a deeper plume of low level moisture sags into the
region. This storm cluster will then impact the northeast half of
the forecast area through the first half of the day Saturday.

Lows tonight will largely hold in the mid and upper 60s. Zone and
grid updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The omega block pattern that has been persistent across the CONUS
throughout the week has begun degrading over the last few days as an
area of cyclonic vorticity works its way a-top the upper level
ridge. This has shifted mean flow to out of the SW over the
Mississippi Valley leading to a broad area of moisture return and
instability. In return, diurnal MCSs have developed upstream of
central Indiana leading to weak mid-level moisture advection and an
increase in cloud cover over the last 12 hrs.

The strong high pressure over the SE US is still influencing central
Indiana weather today, keeping a majority of the moisture to our W
and N. Still, a small portion of NW central Indiana will be close
enough in proximity to the primary corridor of convective initiation
for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to pass through late
this afternoon and evening. This SE CONUS high will slowly degrade
and move eastward with time as moderate CVA continues on it western
periphery, increasing moisture and instability throughout today and
tonight. Eventually, this process will accelerate overnight ahead of
a stronger low level vort max.

The current expectation is for a 50-100 mile corridor of explosive
convection across northern Indiana overnight along this low level
vort max, of which will push to the SE as cold pooling develops.
This should reach the Kokomo region between 10-13Z tomorrow,
impacting the northern half of central Indiana throughout the
morning. The main threat with tomorrow morning`s storms will be
isolated areas of organized convection along the passing cold pool
leading to a few strong to severe wind gusts. Due to efficient
rain rates and a somewhat parallel propagation vector to the
corridor of forcing, a localized flood risk will also be present.

The greater threat for flooding and severe weather is likely to be
tomorrow afternoon and evening. The morning rainfall will work two-
fold; establishing a weak low level boundary and increasing latent
heat fluxes. This will maximize low level forcing and CAPE tomorrow
afternoon across the northern half of the forecast area, leading to
additional widespread convection. 12Z CAMs are in agreement on a
narrow zone of 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, of which should lead to
explosive updrafts capable of producing large hail and microbursts.
The greater uncertainty resides on if these thunderstorms will
encounter enough shear to become organized to produce a greater
coverage of hazardous weather. The current thought is most
thunderstorms should remain fairly unorganized and single-cellular,
but there is some shear (around 20-25kt) of which may produce a few
organized components. Flooding will also be a concern within these
storms due to continued convection along a quasi-stationary boundary
over a 12-15hr time period. Eventually, this boundary will sag
southward Saturday night, but throughout Saturday afternoon and
evening there is some potential for a quick 2-4 inches over small
areas along and north of I-70.

The synoptic pattern will remain similar for Sunday, with the quasi-
stationary boundary settling along or south of the I-70 corridor,
but the forcing and instability is not expected to be as high as
Saturday. This will likely lead to isolated strong storms with an
outside shot at damaging wind gusts and large hail. The main risk
for Sunday will be localized flooding as these storms are also
expected to be efficient rain producers and the threat for
thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the day.

This wet/stormy pattern is expected to continue into the middle of
next week as synoptic troughing works its way eastward pushing
central Indiana into a martime-tropical airmass. There is some
uncertainty on the timing of greater forcing, of which will
fluctuate PoPs some, but in general there will be fairly continuous
chances for storms Monday through Wednesday of next week. Its still
too early to pinpoint any specific hazards.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers and storms tonight, mainly near LAF
- Scattered showers and storms may impact KIND and KLAF Saturday
  morning and again late Saturday afternoon
- MVFR ceilings possible at times Saturday

Discussion:

Isolated light showers continue to develop in the vicinity of KLAF
early this evening but there will be no impacts over the next few
hours. The deeper moisture plume remains displaced largely to the
northwest of central Indiana which will keep convection north and
west of the area for much of the night. Potential for showers and
storms to impact KLAF in the predawn hours and possibly slip into
the Indy metro around daybreak but confidence in convective
evolution remains low and will continue to highlight with prob30s
for Saturday morning.

There is likely to be a lull in shower coverage late morning through
mid afternoon before renewed development occurs in the vicinity of a
nearly stationary frontal boundary over north central Indiana late
Saturday into Saturday evening. KIND and KLAF will again be more
likely to be impacted with most if not all convection remaining
north of KBMG and KHUF. W/SW winds will gust to near 20kts at times
Saturday afternoon.

Sky cover remains tricky through much of the period and will depend
on convective coverage. Anticipate VFR ceilings between 4000-10000
feet will prevail most of the time but there is potential for a
gradual trend toward MVFR ceilings at times Saturday with increasing
low level moisture.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Updike