562
FXUS63 KIND 030511
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1211 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain becoming widespread on Tuesday with chances for thunderstorms
  and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday

- Much warmer late week into the weekend with near record warmth
  Friday

- Additional threats for rain and thunderstorms through early next
  week will increase the risk for flooding across central Indiana

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Forecast is in decent shape this evening. Some patchy light drizzle
continues across portions of the southeastern forecast area, and
patchy fog has persisted across the southern third or so of the
area. Temperatures were in the middle to upper 30s.

Low clouds will continue to slowly move north and will eventually
cover the far northern forecast area by early in the overnight,
which is partly cloudy now. Elsewhere, skies will remain cloudy
through the night, which will not allow viewing of the lunar eclipse.

Temperatures have cooled a bit more than expected in portions of the
eastern and southern forecast area. Nudged down low temperatures as
needed, but don`t expect much more of a fall given the low clouds.

Patchy drizzle and light rain will linger southeast and east
tonight, then chances for rain will increase from the southwest with
the approach of the next system. Tweaked PoPs but made no
significant changes. Added a fog mention south. Will have to monitor
in case it spreads farther north.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

The morning snow is in the process of melting early this afternoon as
temperatures have risen into the mid and upper 30s over most of the
forecast area. There remains very light precipitation likely in the
form of drizzle across south central Indiana. Thick stratus persists
south of I-70 with breaks in the deck further north. Skies are
increasingly sunny north of a Crawfordsville to Noblesville line and
temps have risen into the lower and mid 40s as a result across the
northern Wabash Valley.

Drier air associated with high pressure to the northeast is doing
its part to attempt to erode the northern flank of the cloud deck
across north central Indiana. This should remain in a largely steady
state over the next couple hours prior to expanding north into the
early evening. A warm front extending from north Texas into the
Tennessee Valley will shift north overnight and drift into the
southern half of the forecast area on Tuesday. Rain will become
increasingly widespread through the first half of the day Tuesday as
our transition to a much more active and wetter pattern commences.

As mentioned above...far northern portions of the forecast area may
actually enjoy a couple hours of bright sunshine but the lower
stratus is already expanding north and should overspread the entire
forecast area by this evening. Ceilings will lower late today into
tonight in response to a deepening plume of low level moisture into
the region from the south. Cannot rule out pockets of drizzle or
light rain over southern counties through late afternoon as
soundings support currently but the gradual saturation of the column
up to about 750mb should largely shut that off by early evening.

A small threat for light rain lingers overnight across far southeast
counties but expect the expansion of rain north will hold off until
closer to daybreak and into the morning Tuesday. Isentropic lift
will increase in the 290 and 295K levels as the warm front lifts
into the southern part of the forecast area with increasing winds
through the boundary layer continuing to advect progressively deeper
moisture north. Rain will become widespread across the forecast area
by Tuesday afternoon then persist into the middle of the week as the
frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary and a tightening
baroclinic zone develops just north of the front. More will be
discussed on this in the Long Term section below.

Temps...temperatures will not fall much from afternoon readings
tonight...generally holding in the mid and upper 30s. Highs Tuesday
will range from the upper 40s north to near 60 degrees in south
central Indiana as the warm front lifts up into the region from the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

The upper level pattern across the country will transition from a
split flow quasi-zonal regime to a more amplified pattern
highlighted by a deep and persistent trough organizing across the
southwest U S by late week and a ridge centered off the Southeast
coast. Southwest flow developing in between with tap into moisture
both from the Gulf and the Pacific and spread into the Ohio Valley
into the first half of next week. With a stagnant frontal boundary
oscillating across the area... periodic surface waves tracking along
it and ...an unsettled and wet pattern highlighted by multiple
opportunities for rain and thunder will impact the region through
the next 7 to 10 days.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT

Rain will be ongoing Tuesday evening as a warm front drifts north
into the forecast area. The boundary will remain across central
Indiana ahead of a surface wave that will lift into the Great Lakes
on Thursday. There remains some inconsistency on the specific
location of the heaviest rainfall but expectations currently have
the axis aligning in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Precipitable
water values will rise to between 1.25 to 1.50 inches which would be
almost 300% above normal for early March. The expansion of a low
level jet nosing into the region south of the warm front will advect
deep moisture for early Spring into the Ohio Valley as well.
Confidence is growing in at least an inch of rainfall by Thursday
afternoon for the entire forecast area with 2 to 2.5 inches possible
within the axis of heaviest rainfall. These amounts support the
potential for localized flooding but considering the overall
antecedent dry conditions...the rain through Thursday likely serves
a pump primer for greater flooding issues this weekend into early
next week.

The front will shift back north by late week into the weekend as a
more potent surface low tracks into the upper Midwest on Saturday.
This will bring an increased threat for rain and convection late
Friday through the first half of the weekend with the potential for
an additional 1 to 2 inches across central Indiana. With the rain
midweek...localized/river flooding will become more prevalent this
weekend. Streamflows are low...but the increasing confidence in 2.5
to in excess of 4 inches of rainfall over much of the forecast area
through Sunday introduces the threat for at least minor flooding
developing on the main stem rivers and streams late this week into
the weekend.

SEVERE THREAT

The influx of anomalously warm and humid air for early March with a
frontal boundary lingering in the area will enable weak instability
to develop on Wednesday and then more notably late Friday into
Saturday. For Wednesday...instability will be largely elevated with
stronger convection carrying a potential threat for hail focused
across the southern half of the forecast area. With much warmer
temperatures late Friday into Saturday...surface based convection is
more plausible with the potential not only for hail but also
stronger wind gusts as well. This remains a conditional threat but
one to monitor. Heavy rain and flooding remain the primary concern
over the next several days but the threat for severe convection is
non-zero.

TEMPERATURES

Temperatures will largely remain above the low and mid 60s from
Thursday into early next week. Low to mid 70s are possible on Friday
and may see temps rise into the upper 70s across far southern
portions of the forecast area. The record high at Indianapolis is 75
from 1973 on Friday and could be threatened. Warm and unsettled
conditions are likely to continue well into the second week of March
as well.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1210 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Impacts:

- IFR or worse conditions throughout the period in fog and low
  ceilings

- Rain becoming widespread by 13-15Z across the sites

Discussion:

Widespread IFR or worse conditions are present north of a boundary
across the southern half of the area, and these conditions will
continue to worsen and spread northward overnight.

Upper level disturbances moving along the aforementioned boundary
will produce widespread rainfall beginning just after daybreak,
which will remain fairly widespread much of the period. Visibilities
in rain will largely be MVFR with occasional drops to IFR in more
intense showers, but widespread IFR or worse ceilings are expected
to persist.

Winds will generally be east/southeasterly early, becoming more
southerly and then variable with time, below 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Nield