866
FXUS63 KIND 142313
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
713 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and quite humid much of the next week, with daily
  shower and thunderstorm chances

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are primary concerns, though
  some potential for more organized/stronger storms will exist late
  this week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible
through the afternoon hours into the early evening across the south,
nearest a weak boundary serving as the only real lifting mechanism
in the region, but intensity and coverage will be significantly
limited by a lack of effective shear. Brief heavy downpours and
lightning will be primary concerns. Any lingering convection should
be nearly dissipated by 00-01Z, around or just prior to sunset.

Most of not all of the night will be dry, though it isn`t entirely
out of the question that a light shower sneaks into the southwestern
portion of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak
upper disturbance pushes toward the area on the periphery of the
broad subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS.

This feature, along with the northward retreat of the aforementioned
weak boundary, will bring somewhat more substantial shower and storm
chances to the area on Tuesday, though given a continued lack of
shear, the primary concerns will remain heavy rain and localized
flooding with slow storm motions, deep subtropical moisture, and
precipitable water values possibly in excess of 2 inches, nearing
climatological maximum.

Lows tonight will again drop back into the upper 60s to low 70s -
near dewpoints, which may promote at least some light fog given
light and variable to calm winds, though uncertainty in this respect
is higher than desired given potential for increasing mid and high
cloud with the aforementioned upper wave. Highs Tuesday will again
be seasonal in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Seasonably warm and quite humid conditions are expected throughout
much of the long term period, with frequent shower and thunderstorm
chances.

The pattern will change only modestly through the next week, with a
weak and broad subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS
initially eventually retrograding and strengthening slightly by the
weekend into early next week. This will, however, leave central
Indiana on the periphery of the ridge in prime location for multiple
chances for showers and storms as a very warm and moist airmass
remains in place across the region.

On many days this activity will be largely diurnally driven. The
exception may be late week into the weekend as a surface front moves
into the region and a slightly stronger belt of prevailing
westerlies just to our north along the ridge periphery may provide
stronger support for more organized convection in a couple/few
rounds, perhaps late Thursday into Saturday. Experimental machine
learning guidance indicates at least some minor chances for a few
strong to severe storms during this time frame.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain seasonably warm with
highs generally in the mid 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Dewpoints regularly in the 70s will result in afternoon
heat index values reaching well into the 90s most days, with a few
100 degree plus heat indices possible.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Impacts:

- Fog possible tonight at outlying sites

- Scattered showers and storms possible after 18Z Tuesday

Discussion:

Despite some mid and high cloud tonight, light to calm winds and
continued high humidity suggest some fog is possible yet again
tonight. Given uncertainty with respect to visibilities, have chosen
to carry a 3-4SM and a BCFG mention at the outlying sites. IND is
likely to remain VFR with some wind remaining.

A few brief showers cannot be completely ruled out overnight mainly
near KBMG, but too uncertain for mention. Storm chances are higher
tomorrow as diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop. Confidence in
impacts are too low for an explicit mention at LAF, but a PROB30 was
included for the remaining sites.

Winds will be well below 10KT throughout the period, variable at
times, and calm at the outlying sites overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Melo