380
FXUS63 KIND 301854
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory along and south of I-70 until 8PM

- Shower and storm chances persist through Thursday with the
  greatest chances tonight into Thursday morning

- Locally heavy rain the primary threat

- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected Friday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Current radar and satellite imagery depicts a loosely-organized
broken line of storms associated with a frontal boundary across
Illinois. These storms will continue propagating towards central
Indiana, likely arriving to the IL/IN border by late afternoon. Deep-
layer wind shear needed for organized storms is weak, but an
established cold pool has allowed for convection to continue firing
up.

Daytime heating and muggy dewpoints ahead of the line should allow
for additional scattered showers or thunderstorms to develop despite
a weakening trend noted the past few hours. Severe weather is
unlikely, but an isolated strong to severe wind gust cannot be
ruled out through this evening with the greatest threat over
western portions of central Indiana. Localized flooding is also a
threat due to high rainfall rates and some potential for training.

A HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect for areas along and south of I-70
until 8pm today with heat indices potentially approaching 105F.

Tonight through Thursday night...

The aforementioned front will push southward with a secondary cold
front moving in from the north late tonight into Thursday. Rain
chances will persist as low-level moisture and sufficient forcing
remains in place, mainly through the day Thursday before drying out
late. Severe weather is not expected, but localized flooding remains
a threat due to showers or storms moving eastward along the boundary
which could lead to training. Look for precipitation chances to
begin diminishing late Thursday as the front departs.

Northeasterly flow and cold air advection on Thursday will help to
filter in cooler air. Extensive cloud cover should also limit
diurnal heating keeping temperatures cooler. Expect highs in the 70s
across the northern half of central Indiana with warmer highs
generally in the 80s to the south. Dewpoints are also going to
gradually fall once surface high pressure begins to settle in from
the north.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Overall, forecast thoughts remain the same in the extended. Cooler
and drier conditions are expected Friday through the weekend with
surface high pressure across the region. Daily rain/storm chances
then return early next week along with slightly warmer temperatures
as surface high pressure departs leading to southerly surface flow
returning. Guidance also shows a few mid-upper level impulses
tracking through the region early next week, supporting chances for
precipitation. Please refer to the previous discussion for more
specific details on the long term forecast...

Friday through Sunday...

A great summer weekend is ahead. Strong ridging in place aloft over
the Rockies will result in subsidence across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This will result in the development of a strong surface
high pressure system that will be slowly moving through the Great
Lakes to the northeast through the weekend. This high pressure
system will provide a flow of cooler and less humid, continental air
on northeasterly winds. Forecast soundings show a very dry column
indicative of mostly clear skies. Thus expect a super pleasant
weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
around 60s.

Monday and Tuesday...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. The first factor contributing to
this will be the departing area of high pressure. As the large
surface high departs by Monday, winds will become southerly,
allowing the return of more humid southerly flow from the gulf. The
second factor is aloft. Models suggest a broad upper trough pushing
toward Indiana on Monday and arriving on Tuesday. These factors will
at least necessitate the need for at least chance pops.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Impacts:

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms at all sites late this
  afternoon into this evening, shower chances continue overnight

- MVFR or worse ceilings developing overnight into Thursday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are in place across the area this afternoon, but
radar trends suggest potential for thunderstorms to move through the
area late this afternoon into this evening, with some threat for
showers continuing through the night. Will carry a PROB30 group at
each site for the most likely time frame for thunderstorms, though
uncertainty is somewhat high on survival of ongoing complex to the
west and ending time of storms/precip in general.

Occasional MVFR or worse conditions can be expected wherever
convection impacts a site.

More widespread restrictions, particularly ceilings, are expected
late tonight into Thursday morning, with ceilings deteriorating to
MVFR then IFR in the 03-05Z time frame at LAF, and the 09-10Z time
frame elsewhere.

Winds through the period will be less than 10KT, changing
significantly from southeasterly to northerly with time, and
occasionally variable.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ045>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma/Melo
AVIATION...Nield