467
FXUS63 KIND 130449
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1149 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with significantly warmer temperatures into the weekend

- Low rain chances Friday through Saturday night

- Additional periodic chances for rain early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Forecast is in decent shape this evening. High clouds continue to
stream in from the northwest. Winds continue to slowly diminish.

Temperatures are cooling but at different rates depending on sky
cover and winds. Overall, winds and now cirrus have kept
temperatures a little warmer than previously thought. Raised hourly
temperatures as needed. Clouds will continue to help slow the
temperature fall into the overnight.

However, closer to sunrise, the clouds will thin more and start
exiting the area. As surface high pressure nudges in, winds will
drop off more overnight. The clearing skies and light winds may
allow for a quick drop in temperatures near sunrise, so left
forecast low temperatures alone.

For what aurora is out there, the increasing high clouds will make
them harder to see tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 249 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper-level analysis shows large-scale ridging over the western US
with troughing over the east. Across the Midwest, broad
northwesterly flow prevails which has lead to areas of cirrus at
times. At the surface, a weak cold front passed through earlier
allowing winds to turn west-northwesterly between 15-20kt gusting
upwards of 30kt. Boundary layer mixing has also been deep today, and
dew points have been running well on the lower end of the guidance
spread. Despite the cold front, temperatures are warmer than
yesterday due deeper mixing and the upstream air being warmer than
the departing air mass. Additionally, snow has all melted which is
allowing the sun to have a greater effect.

Going forward, guidance shows surface high pressure building into
the area through tomorrow. Another round of high cirrus is
anticipated overnight, however, which could hinder aurora viewing
for much of the area. High-resolution guidance shows thinner cirrus
further north becoming mainly clear over northern Indiana and into
Michigan. Temperatures will likely be moderated by the high clouds,
which warmer lows further south compared to north. However, there
may be a long enough break towards morning to allow for a period of
ideal radiative cooling potential. As such, temperatures may be
mostly steady through the night with a quick drop around sunrise.
This again depends on how the cirrus shield evolves.

Cirrus ebbs and flows throughout the day tomorrow as the surface
high takes hold. Temperatures similar if not slightly warmer than
today can be expected. The biggest difference between today and
tomorrow will be the wind. Winds are not expected to be as gusty
as they are today due to the surface high being nearly overhead.
In fact, winds should remain under 10kt throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 249 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

There continues to be strong agreement in the beginning of the long
term attached to the emergence of an anomalous upper level ridge
moving in from the W/NW. Strong WAA out ahead of this ridge will
further build high pressure aloft aloft allowing from mostly clear
skies on Thursday outside of some residual upper level cirrus on the
upstream edge of the ridge.

This same WAA will also induce some height falls in the low levels,
with a short wave likely to pass over the Ohio Valley on Friday.
Currently the ensemble mean has the bulk of the ascent associated
with this wave passing to the south, but there is enough variance in
the spread for low chances of rain late Friday into Friday night.

Behind this shortwave, continued dry WAA beneath a developing low
over Canada with further push temperatures into the low 70s on
Saturday. A stronger LLJ and deep mixing will likely lead to
elevated wind gusts Saturday afternoon. Current forecast is for peak
gusts between 25-30mph, but there is some potential for higher gusts
as courser model guidance better handle the low level pressure
gradient. Frontogenesis beneath the aforementioned Canadian Low will
lead to a moisture starved frontal regime late Saturday into early
Sunday. That said, there could be enough moisture convergence for
showers to develop near and around the boundary, and therefor
chance PoPs have been included in the forecast for this period.

Ensemble guidance begins to divide starting late Sunday with a large
range in potential outcomes post trough passage. The overall
synoptic pattern still largely places central Indiana between
troughing to the east and ridging to the west, but depending on
where these respective axes are placed could adjust weather
conditions over central Indiana significantly. Current expectation is
for near seasonal and the potential for period of rain early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1149 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

High pressure will build across Central Indiana during this TAF
period. GOES19 shows some passing high clouds which will result in
some high VFR cigs.

Westerly winds will shift to the south and become light late this
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Puma