825
FXUS63 KIND 041807
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
207 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
  Sunday, then daily storm chances persist into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Cirrus from earlier convection well north of central Indiana will
continue to drift across, along with scattered cumulus. The cirrus
should gradually thin some. Overall, skies will average partly
cloudy. Temperatures will generally be around 90 degrees.

Will have to keep an eye out on a lake enhanced outflow boundary
across northern Indiana, which has sparked isolated convection as it
passes. Looks like it might stall north of central Indiana or weaken
enough that convection will not occur here.

Tonight...

Surface high pressure and an upper high will remain in control
across central Indiana. The cumulus will dissipate early, but
some cirrus will linger into the evening. Skies will average out
mostly clear through the night though.

Warm temperatures will continue through the evening, with light
winds.

Some patchy ground fog may develop near sunrise in some areas with
the humid conditions and light winds.

Low temperatures will be around 70 degrees.

Saturday...

The surface and upper highs will continue to rule on Saturday. Warm
air in the mid levels should help keep any showers and storms from
popping up.

Cirrus and scattered cumulus will be around, but at the moment
believe they won`t be enough to stop temperatures from peaking in
the lower 90s at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The stretch of Hot July conditions will continue Sunday with the
axis of the shortwave still over the Ohio Valley. This ridge will
begin to break down late Sunday through Monday however as the Polar
Jet sinks southward enough for a modest mid level trough to push
through the central Canadian Provinces creating quasi-zonal flow
over the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. This zonal flow will
have a seasonably strong jet streak attached, of which could lead to
some low level pressure depletion and accompanied showers/storms.
The greatest confidence in scattered to numerous convection is on
Monday afternoon, but there will be low chances for showers and
storms Sunday night through Tuesday night.

Generally conditions will be near to just above seasonal in the wake
of the weekend ridge with highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday and
Tuesday. That said, temperatures are likely to vary depending on
where greatest convective cloud cover and evaporational cooling
occurs.

By mid-week next week, uncertainty begins to increase considerably.
This is mostly associated with the emergence of a Gulf Low pushing
westward. As this warm core reaches Texas, the upstream impacts
could result in greater ridging over the Plains (depending on
strength of the warm core) and therefor stronger NW flow over the
Ohio Valley. In this scenario, greater upper level dynamics could
allow for periods of convective organization later in the week. As
stated, there is still high uncertainty in any long range
thunderstorm potential, but we will continue to monitor thunderstorm
trends for later next week in the coming days. Regardless of larger
scale convection, ensemble synoptic scale guidance suggests
temperatures should remain at or above seasonal normals through the
7 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Impacts:

- Brief ground fog possible near sunrise

Discussion:

Scattered cumulus will dissipate early this evening then pop back up
Saturday. Cirrus from convection well to the north will pass through
from time to time.

Light winds overnight and low level moisture could lead to some
ground fog at all but KIND near sunrise Saturday, but odds are too
low to mention anything below VFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50