693
FXUS63 KIND 041748
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out this morning, highs near 70 by this afternoon

- Low threat for additional rain late Friday into Saturday

- Dry and Cooler weather from Saturday Night through the middle of
next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Rain showers have moved out of the forecast area with clouds closely
following behind. Much of the area is now seeing mostly cirrus
clouds overhead with cooler air settling in. Highs today are still
on track to be near 70 degrees. Only minor changes were needed for
the forecast, mainly adjusted temps and cloud coverage to match
current observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Satellite and radar imagery early this morning shows a line of
showers and storms associated with a passing cold front along the
OH/IN border. Despite little instability overnight, dry lower levels
and steep low level lapse rates combined with 35-45 kts of effective
bulk shear resulted in storms capable of producing 50-60 mph winds
along the I-70 corridor. Early observations show that about a
quarter to three quarters of an inch has fallen from these storms.
Satellite imagery shows another wave on the tail end of the front in
Souther Illinois as of 230am. This next wave may bring additional
showers and an isolated lightning strike to the far southern
counties in South Central Indiana in the 4am - 8am timeframe, while
the northern half of Central Indiana remains on the drier side
through the morning hours. Additional severe weather is not expected
for South Central Indiana. Low and mid level clouds should stick
around through the early morning hours before the clearing line in
Illinois pushes eastward through the state during the late morning
hours.

The rest of the day will feature a drying trend behind the cold
front as subsidence and dry air under the incoming area of high
pressure work to clear out the remaining clouds. The pressure
gradient becomes fairly weak today as high pressure slides eastward,
so expect light winds out of the southwest this afternoon. High
temperatures will be noticeable cooler than the past few days. A
cooler airmass filtering into the region results in highs ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, despite ample
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

On Friday, models show the upper pattern consisting of a strong and
deep area of low pressure over Ontario, providing cyclonic flow
across the region including the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Forecast soundings show higher RH values within the mid and upper
levels while dry air and subsidence is found within the lower
levels. All this occurs as surface ridging is suggested to build
across Indiana as the mornings cold front departs. Thus a partly to
mostly cloudy day will be expected on Friday.

A quick moving short wave spoke pushing around the low is expected
to push across Indiana on late Friday Night and Saturday morning.
This will be the only chance for precipitation during from Friday
through next Thursday. Confidence for rain with this forcing remains
very low as forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation and
mainly consist of saturation well aloft. Plentiful lower level dry
air appears in place, but saturation and lift remain in place aloft.
Thus will continue to keep low pops in place on Friday night into
Saturday.

On Sunday through Thursday the upper pattern will continue to
dictate our weather. Strong ridging in place over the Rockies along
with a troughing in place over eastern North America will be the
persistent and highly amplified pattern. This will place Indiana
within an area favorable for strong subsidence. During this time
within the lower levels, a very large and strong area of Canadian
high pressure is shown to settle across the midwest and persist
through at least Thursday as it shifts east and retrogrades over the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings through all of this time continue to
show a very dry column. Thus mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights will be expected along with below  normal temperatures due to
dry, mainly easterly lower level flow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Impacts:

- Wind shift to W then SW later today with gusts around 15 kts today
and up to 20 kts tomorrow morning
- Low level wind shear possible early tomorrow morning at LAF

Discussion:

Satellite imagery and observations show mostly clear skies this
afternoon with some cu in surrounding areas. VFR cigs expected this
afternoon through tonight for all of Central Indiana as high
pressure moves in overhead.

Winds are continuing to steadily shift to the W and are expected to
become more southerly tonight then back to westerly tomorrow. Wind
gusts around 15 kts are expected through this afternoon, dropping
off this evening before picking back up to up to 20 kts tomorrow
morning. Clouds will begin to increase in coverage towards the end
of the period, ahead of an approaching surface front. There is a
chance of LLWS early in the morning at LAF, ahead of the front as
well.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...KF