086
FXUS63 KIND 242251
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
651 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures continue, mainly highs in the 60s and
  lows 45 to 55 degrees through early this week

- Scattered sprinkles and a few light showers possible Sunday

- Better chances for rain and embedded thunder over the entire area
  Monday night through Wednesday

- Temperatures recovering to near normal levels by late week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Filtered sunshine this afternoon across central Indiana as the
region remains on the northern flank of the cirrus shield from
convection across Arkansas and northern Mississippi. More sun was
being enjoyed over the northeast half of the forecast area with
thicker high clouds further south. 18Z temperatures were largely in
the mid and upper 60s.

An elongated double barreled upper low extended from the Canadian
Maritimes west into the northern Great Lakes. This feature will
gradually shift east into Sunday but maintain a northwest flow
regime aloft across the region. A warm front will lift into the
lower Ohio Valley by Sunday morning and interact with subtle waves
aloft tracking within the northwest flow pattern. The presence of a
broad surface high to the north will maintain drier air within the
boundary layer through much of the next 24 hours and confine more
numerous showers predominantly to our southwest. However...the
location of the warm front by Sunday in additional to the moisture
aloft streaming across the region presents a slightly better
opportunity for sprinkles or a few light showers further north
across the forecast area through the day Sunday.

Mid and high level cloud coverage will gradually increase from the
southwest tonight as the warm front lifts north. Isentropic lift
noted especially at the 300K level will gradually increase during
the predawn hours then expand into the region Sunday morning. Model
guidance has nudged deeper moisture aloft further north from
previous runs...but is likely overdoing the potential for light rain
with model soundings maintaining a dry layer below 800-750mb all
day. The most likely scenario is the development of scattered
sprinkles and for areas near and southwest of I-74...a few light
showers as well. Greatest potential for rainfall will exist across
the lower Wabash Valley with no more than 0.05 inches at best
through Sunday evening. With all that being said...anticipate plenty
of dry hours with mostly cloudy skies.

Temps...expect a warmer night tonight with the increasing cloud
cover. Lows will range form the upper 40s northeast to mid 50s in
the lower Wabash Valley. Nudged highs down a degree or two for
Sunday with most locations in the 62 to 66 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Broad northwest flow aloft by the end of the weekend will transition
to subtle upper level ridging on Monday. This will be brief as a
trailing longwave upper trough extending from the Canadian Maritimes
west into the northern Plains will eventually pivot southeast into
the region before gradually becoming absorbed within the mean flow
aloft by late next week. This will result in continued cooler than
normal temperatures into the first half of next week before
gradually returning to seasonable levels for the end of the month.

Sunday Night through Wednesday

The generally cloudy conditions during Sunday will continue into
Sunday night but deeper subsidence will advect south associated with
the high pressure over the Great Lakes with skies clearing overnight
from the northeast. The high will maintain a cool easterly flow into
Monday with largely dry conditions continuing as the aforementioned
ridging aloft briefly expands into the Ohio Valley.

By late day Monday though...an upper level wave will arrive and
shift the ridge to our east. With an inverted surface trough poking
into Kentucky and Tennessee Monday night...moisture will advect
north into the region with rain and embedded thunder lasting into
Tuesday. The focus for greatest convective coverage will again be
over southern counties in closest proximity to the boundary and
track of a series of surface waves riding along it. A final surface
low will lift into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and maintain at
least the potential for scattered showers into the first part of
Wednesday before moving off to the east.

Cool conditions will continue through the middle of next week with
highs generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. After a cool night
Sunday night as temperatures again dip into a range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s...warmer nights in the mid and upper 50s are
anticipated for Monday and Tuesday nights.

Wednesday Night through Saturday

The forecast becomes more uncertain for the second half of the week
as another upper level low develops and tracks across the Great
Lakes. Model trends continue to show an amplifying upper level
trough that may linger into next weekend but unlike the last few
days...this feature should focus more to the east across the
Appalachians and East Coast leaving central Indiana on the back side
of the trough with high pressure building in at the surface. Small
threats for rain remain a possibility but the trend towards an
overall drier pattern is growing by late week and into next weekend.
Low level thermals support a slow but steady warmup back to near
seasonable levels by next weekend with mid and upper 70s returning.

The search for a return to more persistent warmth holds off until
next weekend at the earliest with a likely return to a more typical
late Spring/early Summer pattern by the first full week of June.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Scattered cumulus will dissipate this evening, leaving behind
increasing high and mid level clouds through the period. Some light
rain or sprinkles are possible on Sunday, but no significant impacts
are expected from these.

Winds will be 10kt or less and generally from the NE and E.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50