616
FXUS63 KIND 130201
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog late tonight into early Sunday morning, locally
  dense fog possible

- Scattered storms expected Sunday with the potential for
  localized flooding, mainly south of I-70

- Not quite as warm Sunday and not as humid Sunday night. Otherwise
  humid and very warm/marginally hot conditions most of next week

- Daily chances of showers/t-storms next week for mainly Tuesday and
  onward with isolated downpours/localized flooding possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current radar and satellite imagery show quiet weather conditions
across Indiana as the disturbance which helped promote thunderstorm
development earlier is now east of the area. Loss of daytime heating
has also helped convection quickly diminish this evening. Very weak
subsidence behind the departing system will help to clear out clouds
some overnight and keep winds very light. This in addition to recent
rainfall earlier today and lingering low-level moisture should
support fog development by late tonight. Locally dense fog cannot
be ruled out either in some spots.

Other than fog development, expect quiet weather tonight. High
dewpoints will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any
fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak SUnday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As of this afternoon, the first round of storms is moving across
central Indiana with the next round closely following as a
negatively tilted trough passes overhead. The scattered showers and
a couple smaller lines of thunderstorms ongoing have stayed sub
severe thus far but wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible, especially
across the southern half of the forecast area. As the day goes on,
stronger wind gusts will continue to be possible with a few storms
potentially producing severe winds. Also can`t rule out the chance
for localized flooding in heavier storms or for spots that see
training storms as PWATs are around 2 inches.

CAMs continue to show that much of the showers and storms should
move off to the east of the forecast area around or after sunset but
lingering showers may last into the overnight hours. The threat for
severe weather is expected to end around sunset.

Heat indices will also be of note for today as highs could reach
near 90, and with the moisture, indices of mid 90s to near 100
are expected. There could be brief reprieve from the heat within
rain, but temps will likely rebound quickly afterwards.

Going into tomorrow, a second, less-impressive day of convection is
possible as the cool frontal zone slowly progresses southward
through the area. Confidence is low on this threat of storms, but
should they form the best chances will be during the afternoon to
evening hours across the southern half. While a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out, organized strong/severe storms are not
expected. Temperatures will be cooler than today but only by a
couple of degrees. Good news is that heat indices should stay
below 100 tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Sunday Night through Monday...

Expect a subtle drop in humidity Sunday night when light northwest
surface flow drops dewpoints below 65F for several hours near/north
of I-70. Rain-free conditions Sunday night will continue into early
Tuesday for most locations, although a couple stray showers cannot
be ruled out late Monday south of I-70. The workweek should start
with humid, but non-oppressive conditions and very warm, yet sub-90
degree readings.

Tuesday through Saturday...

A quasi-stationary front is expected to set-up from weak surface low
pressure in the central High Plains east-northeastward into the
Great Lakes. The subtropical upper ridge will make a weak attempt to
build northward from the southeastern CONUS into the Midwest, but
suspect any string of 90+ degree days should be held to the Ohio
Valley and south. In between these features, the CWA will see more
of the very warm/marginally hot and humid pattern, with daily
chances for at least diurnally-driven showers/t-storms. The location
of the boundary to our north should influence location and coverage
of daily convection. Overall higher precipitable water values around
2.00 inches will promote a few torrential downpours and potential
isolated flooding.

While it does seem that cooler air could settle in next weekend,
there is low confidence at this time due to model inconsistency,
although unlikely the period ends on a hot note. For the long term,
afternoon maximum heat indices are expected to peak in the mid to
upper 90s on Tuesday through Thursday, with isolated low 100s values
possible over southern Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A low will
move north tomorrow bringing scattered to numerous convection in the
late afternoon through the evening. Greatest confidence is at KBMG.
Will handle thunderstorms with PROB groups for now, but will update
and refine in later issuances.

Some wind gusts around 20kt or greater are possible in thunderstorms.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF/AGM
AVIATION...Updike