101
FXUS63 KILX 151701
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1101 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm air (20-25 degrees above normal) arrives this
  week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday with mid-to-upper 60s
  temperatures. Gusty southwest winds (30-40 mph) will precede
  this warmup.

- Several chances for rain and thunderstorms this week. There is a
  conditional threat for severe weather exists Thursday but is not
  particularly likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Steady rain has been ongoing for hours now. The rain should start
coming to an end here soon as the system exits off to the east this
morning. It should be out of southeastern IL by mid morning (13-
15z). Behind the rain, in areas that have already cleared out and
have started to see skies clearing as well, some patchy fog is
possible as we make our way to sunrise this morning.

Above normal temperatures aren`t going anywhere anytime soon. Highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s are
forecast for the next week. The warmest day being next Wednesday
with the NBM having a 50-80% chance of temperatures exceeding 65
degrees that afternoon. Monday through Wednesday, while being warm,
will also be quite windy, with forecast wind gusts of 20-30 mph.
Pressure gradient will be tightening ahead of a series of low
pressure systems this week. The strongest wind gusts (30-40 mph)
are expected from Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. NBM
probabilities are showing a 60-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding
30 mph during that time.

There is a series of low pressure systems forecast to travel across
the US this week. The first arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning is the next chance (20-40%) for some rain, particularly
north of I-70, as a low passes off to the north of IL. Rainfall
amounts look to be pretty minimal (< 0.1 inch) as of this forecast
cycle.

The second will hold a bit more impact and is expected Thursday into
Friday. This system will bring rain and thunderstorm chances (30-
50%) to central and southeastern IL. QPF of up to a quarter of an
inch. Thursday afternoon forecast soundings are showing a couple
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and around 30 knots of bulk wind shear. This
is stunted although by a cap of up to -100 J/kg of CIN. Machine
learning is hinting at the possibility of severe weather with
this system, but confidence is very low as of now in any severe
weather occuring. Not to say it won`t happen, so we will continue
to monitor trends as we enter this new week.

A cool down to more seasonable temperatures behind the series of
systems mid to late week. Highs next weekend in the mid 30s to mid
40s and lows in the 20s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Dense fog has recently lifted and IFR ceilings will quickly erode
over the next 1-2 hours, leaving VFR conditions into this
evening. Another round of fog and low clouds is forecast to
develop tonight and persist through mid to late morning Sunday.
For now have dropped visibilities to IFR, but there is a potential
for LIFR- VLIFR conditions on later updates. Light winds through
tonight, then increasing by late morning, SW at 10-15 kt.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$