162
FXUS63 KILX 222358
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
658 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather and heavy rainfall risks will remain very low
  across central Illinois over the next week...with higher
  probabilities focused further south from the Ozarks into the
  Tennessee River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Widely scattered showers continue to develop along a surface
trough across central Illinois this afternoon...with most of the
showers confined to locations along/north of I-72. Based on robust
diurnal cloud elements seen on 1845z/145pm visible satellite
imagery and a consistent signal from the HRRR/RAP, will continue
to advertise 20-40 PoPs across the northern two-thirds of the KILX
CWA through the afternoon until about 01z/8pm when CAMs indicate
the showers will fade away. Despite an end to the showers, think
it will take awhile longer for all the Cu to dissipate...so am
expecting partial cloud cover to linger until late evening,
followed by clear skies and chilly conditions overnight with lows
dipping into the lower to middle 40s. The trough axis will drop
south of the Ohio River on Friday as high pressure builds in from
the northwest. Skies will start out sunny: however, high clouds
will increase from the west...with a high overcast expected during
the afternoon. The increasing high clouds will mitigate the
warming trend somewhat, but highs should still reach the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Thanks to an upper-level blocking pattern across eastern Canada, a
prominent trough will remain anchored over the Great Lakes this
weekend...which will shunt the primary storm track well to the
S/SW of central Illinois. The first wave to approach the region
will skirt just south of the area Friday night into Saturday, with
much of its associated precip occurring across Missouri into far
southern Illinois. The second wave will come into the picture
Saturday night into Sunday...with some models suggesting precip
may spread a bit further north. The NBM continues to be too
aggressive with bringing PoPs northward into central Illinois
given the clear southward shift seen most notably on the ECMWF.
Have therefore cut PoPs to confine the highest rain chances to
areas south of I-72...and further cuts may be needed if trends
continue.

As has been seen by the past few model runs, a third wave
expected to approach from the southwest early next week stands the
best chance at bringing light showers to nearly all of central
Illinois Monday night into Tuesday. Despite all the low rain
chances from Saturday night through Tuesday, storm total rainfall
will be light...ranging from just a couple hundredths of an inch
near I-74 to perhaps as much as 0.25 to 0.50 along/south of a
Jacksonville...to Taylorville...to Robinson line. The focus for
heavier rains and thunderstorms will stay well to the south across
southern Missouri into western Kentucky...where amounts of 3 to 5
inches will be likely.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through Wednesday:
however, there are signs of a warm-up by the end of next week. The
12z GEFS shows a powerful 500mb jet streaking across the Pacific
Ocean, eventually digging a significant trough just off the West
Coast. As the trough sharpens, downstream ridging will bring
higher heights and thus warmer, more typical springtime temps back
to central Illinois by next Thursday/Friday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Broken CU
with isolated showers will continue until 01z at all sites, then
skies will begin to scatter our with CU becoming scattered through
the night or clear. High cirrus is expected tomorrow, but
additional CU is possible tomorrow...just did not put it in the
new TAFs. Winds will become lighter through the night and be
northwest around 10kts tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$