788
FXUS63 KILX 191903
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
203 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign fall weather continues across central IL this weekend,
  with sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and high
  temperatures in the 70s.

- Although weak disturbances could produce scattered light rain or
  sprinkles this week, meaningful rainfall amounts are unlikely
  through at least next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

We continue to have a calm, blue sky stretch of weather today. The
ridging should start to be pushed further east into the new week as
a weak disturbance enters the Midwest. Our southerly winds will keep
WAA in the area, causing temperatures to warm into the new week,
reaching the upper 70s to near 80 by Monday. RH will remain low (20-
35%) for much of the CWA. The light winds will help keep the fire
risk lowered. However, enhanced fire caution should continue to be
used, especially with harvesting activities ongoing, because of how
dry the fuels are currently.

A cut off upper low over the SW CONUS and will eject out NE towards
the Plains. This will bring the next disturbance to the CWA,
bringing a possible sprinkle or light shower to central Illinois
Tuesday morning. The chance is slim but it exists (20% chance W of I-
55). Amounts would be quite minimal (less than 0.1 inch). THe trend,
however, has had PoPs dropping, meaning likelihood of any rain has
dropped.

There is another low chance opportunity for light sprinkles/showers
when a cold front passes through Illinois late in the week. Hopes
to get any meaningful rain out of these systems is quite low.
Probability of rainfall totals greater than 0.1 inch through
Friday is ~25% based on the LREF 00z.19 run.

Behind the mid-week, weak cold front, temperatures will cool off
back into the 60s briefly for the end of the week, before warming
back into the mid 70s for the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

High pressure will remain centered along the Ohio Valley through
the period. This will result in a modest S/SSW breeze and VFR
conditions across the central Illinois terminals the rest of today
into Sunday.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$