906
FXUS63 KILX 071101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorm continue north of I-72 and
  south of I-70 into this afternoon as the cold front exits
  central and southeastern IL this afternoon.

- Behind the cold front, a return to more seasonable temps (highs
  in the upper 60s to mid 70s) north of I-70 Tuesday and area-
  wide Wednesday though Friday is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The cold front is still working its way through central IL this
morning, located near the I-55 corridor at the moment. There are
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and behind the
front. Additional showery activity in southeastern IL where the
increased moisture return is located is possible as we go into the
morning hours as more develop. The area that hasn`t seen much rain
thus far, and is currently precipitation-free, is between I-72 and I-
70. The CAMs indicate that this area is likely to remain the driest
section of the CWA. Rain hasn`t been widespread with this frontal
passage. Any rainfall chances should end by late afternoon, around
21-00z, but the northwestern counties of the forecast area should be
dried out by 18z.

Behind this cold front, a period of dry weather sets up as a high
pressure takes over the pattern once again. The next chance of rain
arrives early next week as another low pressure system looks to pass
off to the north of Illinois, draping a cold front through the CWA.

Temperatures will briefly drop down to near normal starting today,
but will quickly warm back up into the 80s for the weekend into the
new week. Lows on Wednesday night and Thursday night will be the
chilliest we have seen a quite awhile, being in the upper 30s to low
40s. We will have to watch for the possibility of a light frost to
occur Thursday morning and Friday morning, primarily in east central
IL. East of I-55 both mornings have a 20-30% chance of temperatures
dropping below 36 degrees, with potentially clear skies.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

IFR ceilings are being seen in association with the cold front
that is passing through this morning. Ceilings will gradually
improve as the day progresses. Eventually, becoming VFR by mid to
late afternoon.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across central IL
this morning. Confidence is low in whether or not SPI, DEC, or CMI
will see any activity this morning but opted to throw in PROB30
for SHRA through 15z. All rain potential should be out of the TAF
sites by late morning.

As the front progresses, winds will finish shifting from S/SW to
N. All sites should be out of the north by ~15z. Speeds generally
6-12 knots. A rogue gust around 20 knots could occur within any
storms that pass over.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$