334
FXUS63 KILX 170435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1035 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This afternoon, the combination of low (17-25 percent) relative
  humidity and northwest winds gusting to 20 mph will result in
  elevated fire danger in east-central and southeast IL.

- The next chance (80 percent) for precipitation arrives Monday
  into Tuesday. Most areas will see a tenth to a quarter inch or
  rainfall, not enough to significantly mitigate drought
  conditions. Areas south of I-70 should see around a half inch
  of rainfall.

- A better opportunity for widespread beneficial rainfall arrives
  Thursday into Friday. There is a 30-60% chance for rain amounts
  greater than 1 inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure drifting over central IL tonight will lead to
generally clear skies and light winds. Most models show a completely
clear sky over the majority of the area, however enough cloud cover
may begin to encroach on western areas late to keep lows slightly
warmer in the west. The overall range for tonight`s lows is expected
to be from around 30 degrees west to 25 degrees around Danville,
with most lows in the upper 20s.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday, with highs in the mid 50s, as
an upper trough approaches from the central plains. Moist warm
advection ahead of this system Monday night is expected to result in
widespread precipitation across the area, with chances for rain
around 80 percent. Ensemble guidance has increased forecast amounts,
particularly in southeast IL where the most favorable precipitable
water values (over 1.0 inch) are forecast. Generally, amounts around
a tenth to a quarter inch are expected, but there could be closer to
0.50 inches south of I-70. The probability of seeing over 1 inch of
rain is around 10 percent south of I-70. Lows Monday night should
only dip into the 40s given the extensive cloud cover, followed by
highs mainly in the 50s Tuesday.

Skinny elevated cape profiles, up to a few hundred J/kg, are
expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should be
sufficient to support a few thunderstorms, mainly along and south of
the I-72 corridor.

Dry weather is expected to prevail from Wednesday into Thursday
morning as a shortwave ridge aloft dominates the pattern. Highs
should reach the 60s by Thursday, if not Wednesday, given the
developing southerly flow and ridge aloft.

The next storm system looks to affect the area late in the week as a
cutoff low ejects out of the southwest U.S. The phasing of this
feature with a northern stream shortwave has decreased over the past
day. This has led to at least as much uncertainty as previously with
the track, timing, and strength of the system as it arrives in
central IL. Nevertheless, there is a good theme among models for
this feature picking up copious gulf moisture and producing rain,
and possibly some thunderstorms, over central IL. Extensive cloud
cover could limit the development of strong instability, and select
forecast soundings appear to confirm this. However, we will have to
wait on more details as this feature draws closer.

The model range on precipitation totals for the late week storm is
also quite large. The 00Z ensembles depict a wide spread, with storm
totals ranging from as high as 2+ inches in the Illinois River
Valley (95th percentile) to under a half inch area-wide (10th
percentile).

After the mild temperatures of Wednesday through Friday,
temperatures look to fall to seasonably cool values by next
weekend, with highs in the lower to mid 50s.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Surface high pressure will keep winds light and variable overnight.
As the surface high pushes off to our east on Monday, winds will
veer to the southeast with sustained speeds up to 12 kt. Scattered
mid to high clouds will slide through the area overnight with cloud
cover more notably increasing later Monday ahead of an approaching
weather system. Scattered rain showers become common late Monday
evening continuing through the overnight hours. A few isolated
storms are also possible, but chances of this occuring is only about
20%.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$