000
FXUS63 KILX 031950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect along and south of Shelby to
  Moultrie to Douglas to Edgar counties through 7 AM Sunday
  morning. Between 3 and 5 more inches of rainfall is expected
  through Saturday night, with the heaviest rainfall of 2 to 3
  inches expected Friday afternoon and Friday night. .

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along
  and south of the I-70 corridor from mid Friday afternoon into
  Friday evening. Hail is the primary severe risk.

- A Hard Freeze is becoming increasingly likely overnight Monday
  night into early Tuesday morning, as the NBM now shows a 60-80%
  chance of low temperatures dropping below 28 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Continued the Flood Watch for Shelby, Moultrie, Douglas and Edgar
counties southward through 7 am where multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will likely bring 3-5 inches of additional
rainfall on top of the 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell yesterday.
The heaviest rainfall of 2-2.5 inches with locally up to 3 inches
is expected Friday afternoon and Friday night. Over 1 inch of
additional rainfall is possible southeast of I-70 Saturday
afternoon into Sat evening. LREF has a 60-90% probability of over
4 inches of rainfall from I-70 southeast through Saturday night.

Radar mosaic shows area of light rain from I-72 south, but more
scattered along and south of a Shelbyville to Charleston/Mattoon
to Paris line. A few thunderstorms were along and south of highway
50 into southern IL. Otherwise mid level clouds with bases of
7-12k ft blanket central and southeast IL. Frontal boundary
extends over southeast parts of OH/KY into mid TN and far se AR
and into southeast Texas. A disturbance lifting ne is spreading
more showers and isolated thunderstorms ne into central and se
parts of CWA tonight through early overnight, with nw CWA staying
drier and heaviest qpf in southeast IL this evening. Surface low
pressure to eject ne from central Texas and lift frontal boundary
as a warm front into southern IL later Fri afternoon/evening. This
will likely bring more widespread showers and some thunderstorms
northward into central and southeast IL Fri afternoon into Fri
night along with moderate to heavy rainfall especially se of I-55
with the heaviest rainfall of 1-2 inches Friday evening south of
I-72. Will need to monitor Christian, Macon, Piatt, Champaign and
Vermilion counties for possible flood watch expansion northward
into these counties if heavy rains shift this far north.

SPC day2 outlook continues slight risk of severe storms later Fri
afternoon and evening pretty much over our flood watch area for
mainly large hail followed by damaging winds south of I-70.
Tornado risk is south of CWA (south of Wayne, Wabash and Edwards
counties) where warm front/sector will be. If the warm front gets
further north, will need to watch far se CWA for possible tornado
risk late Fri afternoon/evening. Lows tonight range from lower 40s
northern CWA to around 50F in southeast IL. Highs Fri in the mid
50s over much of central IL and low to mid 60s in southeast IL.

Yet another low pressure systems lifts ne along the front near or
just south of the Ohio river for Saturday bringing another surface
of moisture northeast over central and especially southeast IL
especially Sat afternoon/evening. Have scattered light rain
showers lingering Sunday especially Sunday morning and lingering
longer during the day in southeast IL. Otherwise dry and cool
conditions expected early next work week. Lows in the low to mid
30s Sunday night and Tue night and mid to upper 20s Monday night
when a hard freeze expected over much of central IL. Temps to
moderate during mid to late week with highs in the low to mid 60s
next Thursday and milder temps expected thereafter as CPC day 8-14
day outlook for April 11-17th has much of central and nw IL
trending above normal temps and near normal se IL. Precipitation
is trended below normal across IL during this time period.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 18Z/1 pm Fri, except ceilings possibly lower to
near MVFR conditions along I-72 later tonight into Friday
morning. Otherwise ceilings around 10k ft this afternoon to lower
to 4-8k ft during tonight into Friday morning with some light rain
affecting I-72 airports for this afternoon and tonight but vsbys
likely staying above 5 miles as heavier rain showers to be south
of I-70 this evening. The frontal boundary to remain se of IL
through Fri morning and lift northward into southern IL late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening. WSW winds 7-12 kts with few gusts of
15-18 kts this afternoon to veer north to NE this evening under 10
kts. ENE winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts on
Fri.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$