549
FXUS63 KILX 311646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild weather will dominate the area through early next
  week.

- A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, bringing
  a chance of showers and storms. There is a 20-40% chance that
  lows will be below 45 degrees Thursday morning and Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Surface high pressure continues to hang over the region until a cold
front pushes through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms with the
front will also usher in cold air briefly for Thursday into Friday
morning. Most areas will be dry through Tuesday.

Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s
are expected to continue through Wednesday. Behind the cold front,
CAA sets up, allowing highs to only get up into the upper 60s with
lows in the 40s, starting early Thursday morning. The NBM is showing
a 15-30% chance that highs get above 70 degrees Thursday north of I-
70. South of there, there is a 30-50% chance. Thursday & Friday
morning will be quite chilly, with lows forecast to be in the mid
40s. There is a 20-40% chance that lows will be below 45 degrees
Thursday morning and Friday morning. IF we were to see a very early
first frost, those two mornings would be the best chance in very
localized areas. The ground could have a pretty glistening look to
them just as the sun rises. Temperatures appear to rebound by the
following weekend to the 70s/80s during the day and 50s at night.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through along the front
Wednesday afternoon/evening as it moves southeast across central IL.
We still aren`t seeing any risk for severe weather. Probabilities
have increased with the current forecast showing a 40-60% chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. However, it does
not look to be a big rain producer at the moment. QPF is only
showing maybe a tenth of rain from the frontal passage. The NBM
suggests a 20-40% chance of 0.25" accumulated rain on Wednesday.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Another set of VFR TAFs as a ridge of high pressure to our
northeast dominates the weather pattern. Scattered mid to high
level clouds and east winds under 10 kt through midday Monday.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$