412
FXUS63 KILX 301916
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
216 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 pm today for locations
  along and south of I-70 where heat index values will once again
  peak at 100-105 degrees this afternoon.

- Scattered showers and storms will affect the area tonight into
  Thursday. Cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy downpours
  will be the primary hazards.

- Much cooler and less humid air will move into the area Thursday
  through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Latest radar imagery showed the outflow boundary shifting just
east of I-57 at 2 pm. Scattered storms with this initial wave will
exit the far northeast CWA mid afternoon, and carry a localized
heavy rain risk along with 30-40 mph wind gusts. Initial synoptic
cold front stretched from eastern IA to southern WI this
afternoon, where winds backed northeast behind the boundary.
Farther north, a stronger front stretched from southern MN to
central WI, where dew points dropped into the 50s north of this
front. As the frontal zone shifts south tonight and Thursday
morning and the southern flank of the upper jet passes to our
north, a few more rounds/clusters of showers and storms are
expected to traverse the area. Atmosphere has been worked over by
today`s thunderstorm complex, and given overall weaker forcing we
are no longer expecting severe storms. Can`t rule out pockets of
heavy rain given high PWATs near 2.2" tonight but given overall
lack of focused ascent and decreasing QPF from short range
guidance, have cancelled the Flood Watch.

The main story for Thursday afternoon into this weekend is a
stretch of excellent summer weather as Canadian high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes. This will bring a sustained period of
northeast low level flow, dropping temperatures several degrees
below normal. Along with the cooler temps, much lower humidity
will dominate the region as dew points fall into the 50s. The
ridge will slowly ease out of the region early next week, allowing
temperatures to return to seasonable levels by mid week. A wave in
the northwest flow aloft looks to bring our next precip chances on
Tuesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Ongoing line of convection tracking east around 30 mph. MVFR to
brief IFR conditions and variable gusts to 30 kt will shift east
of KBMI- KDEC- KCMI between 18-20z. A strong cold front will shift
south into central IL this evening. Behind the front winds shift
northeast and MVFR ceilings move in, followed by IFR ceilings
overnight into Thu morning. After sunrise winds increase, gusting
20-25 kt. Some signs that ceilings rise to MVFR by late morning
but with low confidence on timing left IFR for now.


25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ062-063-066>068-
071>073.

&&

$$