531
FXUS63 KILX 292036
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm conditions will persist into this evening before
  precipitation comes to an end toward midnight.

- Storm total snowfall of 6 to 10 inches will be common everywhere
  north of the I-70 corridor. Further south, amounts will decrease
  sharply...with little to no accumulation across Richland and
  Lawrence counties.

- Another weaker system will spread snow into the region late
  Monday, resulting in additional light accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As of 1930z/130pm, widespread snow continues to fall across all of
central Illinois along and north of the I-70 corridor. The snow
has become moderate to heavy at times...with a cluster of
convection noted in the Springfield/Lincoln/Decatur vicinities. As
a vigorous short-wave trough noted on water vapor imagery over
eastern Missouri pivots northeastward, am expecting the heavy snow
and isolated thunder to spread into the Champaign/Danville areas
over the next couple of hours. Based on radar trends and the
latest CAM data, it appears the heaviest precipitation will
diminish from southwest to northeast between 20z/3pm and 01z/7pm.
As surface temps slowly edge upward, the snow will mix with and/or
change to a brief period of light rain early this evening before
all precip lifts N/NE out of central Illinois by midnight. Storm
total snowfall of 6-10 inches still looks to be on target for the
bulk of central Illinois north of I-70...with isolated higher
amounts along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line where a
band of moderate to heavy snow got started much earlier this
morning. Further south, 2-4 inches is expected along I-70...with
light amounts under 1 inch south of there.

Once low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes and a cold front is
pulled through the region, winds will veer to the northwest
tonight. Am expecting wind gusts of 25-35mph from late tonight
into Sunday morning, which will result in some blowing/drifting of
the freshly fallen snow...particularly where temps remain at or
below freezing this evening and the snow surface does not become
crusty. This is most likely along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line. Despite FROPA and an end to the precip, skies
will remain cloudy through Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will only
reach the middle to upper 20s, while overnight lows dip into the
teens.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The next system of interest will quickly skirt through the region
on Monday...bringing a period of light snow from Monday afternoon
through Monday night. This will be a much weaker wave than the
current one and deep-layer moisture will be considerably less:
however, a light accumulation appears likely. The 12z NBM
indicates a 70-90% chance of greater than 1 inch of snow
along/north of a Taylorville to Paris line...with a 40-60% chance
of more than 3 inches. Stay tuned for further details over the
next few forecast cycles. After that, a cold and mainly dry week
is expected. High temperatures will remain well below normal in
the 20s and 30s...with Thursday being the coldest day when highs
hover in the lower to middle 20s and overnight lows plunge into
the single digits and teens.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

1730z/1130am radar shows a band of heavy snow lifting northward
toward the I-74 corridor. Visbys beneath the band have been
reduced to 1/4 to 1/2 mile...and am expecting these conditions to
spread into KPIA/KBMI/KCMI over the next hour or so. Based on the
latest radar trends and HRRR/RAP output, have ended the heaviest
snow and raised visbys back up to 1 mile at KSPI by 22z...then
further northeast to KBMI/KCMI by 00z. The snow will likely end as
a light rain/snow mix at the I-72 terminals...with dry conditions
returning across the board after the 03z-05z time frame. IFR
ceilings will persist during the snowfall, with ceilings climbing
to MVFR overnight into Sunday morning. Winds will initially be SE
with gusts of 25-30kt this afternoon...then will become S/SW and
decrease slightly this evening. Once low pressure lifts into the
Great Lakes and pulls a cold front through the region, winds will
veer to NW and once again gust 25-30kt from around midnight
through Sunday morning.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$