906
FXUS63 KILX 231700
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1100 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of mild weather is expected through much of
  this week across central and southeast IL with Pacific air mass
  prevailing. Highs 45 to 50 today will generally be in the upper
  40s and 50s Monday through next weekend.

- While a series of disturbances will move through the region
  every few days, rain chances are fairly low. There is a slight
  chance of light rain showers from I-74 north Monday night. The
  best chance for scattered showers will be Wednesday night
  (30-50% chance), but amounts will be light (50-60% chance less
  than a tenth inch).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The 09Z/3 am surface map shows 1028 mb high pressure over the
southern MS river valley and ridging into western TN and lower
Ohio river valley. Fair skies prevailed over central/se IL with
some high clouds passing ESE over northern parts of IL/IN from
southern WI and northern IA. Seasonably cold temperatures were
22-28F across CWA with Pittsfield in Pike county at 30F. South to
SW winds were less than 10 mph.

An upper level trof moving into central Texas had an area of
showers over LA, east Texas and sw MS and this will track eastward
over lower Gulf Coast states today and tonight, staying well
south of IL. High pressure will sprawl across the Southeast
States today keeping sw winds over IL along with a fair amount of
sunshine again with just some passing bands of mid/high clouds
arriving from central/nw Iowa from late morning into afternoon
over central IL. SE IL to enjoy nearly sunny skies much of today.
SW winds gusting to around 20 mph this afternoon continues WAA and
continued melting of old light snow pack. Leaned toward 75% NBM
highs of 45-50F today as temps have been trending milder than 50%
NBM levels. The coolest readings should be near the Wabash river
valley and mildest along and west of I-55 corridor.

Mid/high clouds increase again over central IL overnight with
partly to mostly cloudy skies going into Monday with stronger SW
winds gusting 20-30 mph by Monday afternoon (strongest in
ne/eastern CWA). Lows tonight only in the lower 30s, with highs
Monday in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to around 60F
possible over west central and sw IL (lower 60s in St Louis metro
area).

A northern stream upper level trof over Pacific Northwest to
weaken as it tracks into the upper MS river valley Monday evening
and pushes a weak surface trof se through central IL overnight
Monday night. We have just a slight chance of light rain from I-74
north Monday night. The Ecmwf and GEM models have light qpf
further south into more of central IL during Mon night but
moisture and lift is lacking so leaned toward further north track
of GFS. Maybe sprinkles possible Mon night in central IL south of
I-74 and north of I-70. Above freezing lows Monday night in the
mid 30s.

Weak surface ridge noses northward into IL from the lower MS river
valley by Tue afternoon with lighter winds and partly to mostly
sunny skies. Models have trended milder with highs Tue in the mid
to upper 50s, with lower 50s from Galesburg and Lacon northward.

A stronger northern stream short wave digs into the Midwest on
Wednesday and pushes a cold front se through CWA during Wed. This
feature has a better chance of producing some light rain showers
Wed and Wed evening, though SE IL will likely stay dry yet Wed
morning. The Gulf moisture remains cut off to qpf amounts appear
to be on the light side (50-60% chance of below tenth inch
amounts).

Breezy SW to WSW winds Wed morning turn west to NW Wed afternoon
after cold frontal passage. Mild highs Wed range from mid 50s
northern CWA to lower 60s in southeast IL where cold front passes
through later in the day Wed. Isolated light showers could linger
over Wabash river valley overnight Wed night, otherwise brunt of
qpf appears to be east of IL by then. Breezy NW winds Thu with
gradual decrease of clouds from the west as deep mid/upper level
trof shifts east of IL by Thu afternoon. Highs Thu in the upper
40s and lower 50s.

Forecast models have trended further north with strong low
pressure passing over the northern Great Lakes Fri afternoon and
Fri night with Ecmwf model keeping low north of Lake Superior
while GFS goes into northern MI Fri night. GFS, ECMWF and GEM keep
qpf north/ne of CWA for Fri night into Sat. Breezy SSW to SW winds
Friday could gust to 30 mph or higher by Fri afternoon (LREF has
30-50% chance of greater than 30 mph wind gusts Fri afternoon north
of I-70). Mild highs in the mid to upper 50s Friday and models
have been trending with warmer temps on Friday. Breezy NW winds
Saturday (LREF has 25-40% of greater than 30 mph wind gusts Sat in
central IL) brings in a bit cooler air but still above normal
temps for Mar 1st. Highs Sat in the upper 40s northern CWA and mid
50s in southeast IL. Temps just a few degrees cool next Sunday in
upper 40s to near 50F with lighter nw winds and more sunshine as
1028-1030 mb high pressure settles into the area. Above normal
temps look to continue through at least Tue/Mar 4th across CWA
with highs likely in the 50s Mon/Tue Mar 3-4th.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period, along with
southwesterly winds sustained around 10 knots. Gusts increase
into late Monday morning to 20-25 knots, strongest in eastern
Illinois. Skies will be mostly clear this afternoon, then a cirrus
shield (BKN150) moves in early Monday morning. No precipitation
is expected during the period.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$