950
FXUS63 KILX 221100
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures return to the forecast today through
  the rest of the week. Temps will peak Wednesday and Thursday
  with highs around 80 degrees.

- There is a 20-40 percent chance for showers and storms mainly
  north of a Rushville to Bloomington line this afternoon and
  evening. The next more widespread chance for showers and storms
  is Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A weak boundary will drape over northern IL today. How far south it
makes its way into the state is debatable. It looks like there is
a 20-40% chance of showers and an isolate thunderstorm today,
primarily across the northern half of the forecast area. MUCAPE
around 1000 J/kg this afternoon and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40
knots could support some marginally severe thunderstorms, with the
main risks being up to 60mph wind gusts and 1 inch hail. Most
models show the isolated storms being north of a Rushville to
Bloomington line, but the HRRR shows them possibly getting down to
the I-72 corridor. The SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is draped
near and north of the IL river valley.

Wednesday will be dry for much of the area, with a low chance (10-
20%) of rain over Knox and Fulton counties. WAA and moisture
transport will build momentum from the Gulf, allowing for Wednesday
and Thursday to be the warmest days of the week with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints climbing into the mid 50s.

The next robust wave arrives Thursday afternoon going into Saturday
morning. QPF with this cold frontal / shortwave passage is 0.5-0.75
inches. CWA wide, there is a 70-90% chance of showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Machine learning models are showing a 5% chance of
severe weather Friday south of I-70. We are going to continue to
monitor as we get closer to the end of the work week.

A brief cool down on Saturday after the cold front, but we quickly
warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by the beginning of next
week. Another rounds of rain are possible beyond the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR ceilings will reign through the 12z TAF period. The northern
sites (BMI/PIA) could see some showers this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Threw in a PROB30 for the uncertainty -- timing
isn`t very clear, but there is a possibility for much of the
afternoon/overnight for isolated SHRA or TS. Southerly winds will
be light but will will pick up to 10-15 knots. PIA and BMI can see
gusts around 20 knots late this morning into the afternoon.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$