366
FXUS63 KILX 021946
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
246 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity will gradually increase into the weekend. By
Friday, highs will be back in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
around 100 degrees.

- 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into
Friday morning. More chances arrive late Saturday as a cold front
slides into the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Highs have been in the mid to upper 80s so far today, but that will
change for the end of the week. The temperatures are set to continue
to gradually warm with increasing humidity. Friday and Saturday,
highs will be back in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around
100 degrees.

Mainly, the forecast will be dry through late Saturday, but a 20%
chance for thunderstorms was introduced for tomorrow evening into
Friday morning. A pulse along the ridge with pass north of the
area, and could potentially bring showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area if it comes further south. <1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
around 30 knots of shear could support thunderstorm development,
if they can break through the cap. SPC has a marginal risk for
severe weather just half a county to the north of Marshall County.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in if they will impact
central IL but didn`t want any possible storms to come as a
surprise.

The 4th of July (Friday) should be dry by the time fireworks are set
to start. By late Saturday, a slow moving cold front will sag across
the forecast area, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
Locally heavy rain is looking probable with this wave as PWATs are
showing values of 2.0-2.2 inches. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the first half of the new week.
More seasonable temperatures are in store for the new week behind
the cold front.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

No meaningful changes necessary to the TAFs at this time. VFR
conditions prevail through the period, with light west-
northwesterly winds around 5-7 knots. Diurnal cumulus will develop
again late tomorrow morning as it did today.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$